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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Malmö FF vs AIK Prediction

Clear lean

Malmö FF win 59%

· Eleda Stadium

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Malmö FF crestMalmö FFvsAIK crestAIK
Clear lean

Malmö FF win59%

Open game
Malmö FF win
59%
Draw
20%
AIK win
20%
Prediction
2–1

Grid peak · 10%

Expected goals
2.02–1.09

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
60%
BTTS
57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Malmö FF win 59%, from a +14 Elo gap (1613 vs 1598).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.02-1.09.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 60%.
  5. 5Anders Christiansen listed out and 14 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Malmö FF crest

1613

+14

AIK crest

1598

Allsvenskan table
Out

Malmö FF crestMalmö FF3 out

  • Anders Christiansen
  • Emmanuel Ekong
  • Oscar Sjostrand

AIK crestAIK12 out

  • Adrian Helm
  • Andreas Redkin
  • Dino Beširović
  • +9 more
XI
Predicted XI
4-3-3/3-4-3
Last 5

Malmö FF crestMalmö FF

WLWLW

Avg xG 1.77-1.39

AIK crestAIK

WWWLD

Avg xG 1.38-2.81

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 121Prediction9.9%
  2. 2119.4%
  3. 3109.4%
  4. 4209.1%
  5. 5316.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Malmö FF versus AIK
Malmö FF goals012345
04%5%3%
19%9%5%
29%10%5%
36%7%4%
43%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Malmö FF win

Malmö FF win: model 59%, fair 1.68, listed 1.72 (55%)

Fair

1.68

59% model

Listed

1.72

55% book

Draw

Draw: model 20%, fair 4.90, listed 4.12 (23%)

Fair

4.90

20% model

Listed

4.12

23% book

AIK win

AIK win: model 20%, fair 4.96, listed 4.14 (23%)

Fair

4.96

20% model

Listed

4.14

23% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 60%, fair 1.66, listed 1.50 (63%)

Fair
1.66
Listed
1.50

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 40%, fair 2.51, listed 2.60 (37%)

Fair
2.51
Listed
2.60

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 57%, fair 1.75, listed 1.49 (62%)

Fair
1.75
Listed
1.49

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 43%, fair 2.33, listed 2.40 (38%)

Fair
2.33
Listed
2.40

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Malmö FF crestMalmö FF3 out

  • Anders ChristiansenOutLeg Injury
  • Emmanuel EkongOutKnee Surgery
  • Oscar SjostrandOutCruciate Ligament Injury

AIK crestAIK12 out

  • Adrian HelmOutKnee Injury
  • Andreas RedkinOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Dino BeširovićOutThigh Injury
  • Diogo TomasOutUnknown
  • Eskil EdhOutHamstring Injury
  • Fredrik NissenOutUnknown
  • Ibrahim CisséOutAnkle Injury
  • Mads Døhr ThychosenOutUnknown
  • Martin EllingsenOutLeg Injury
  • Sotirios PapagiannopoulosOutKnee Injury
  • Stanley WilsonOutGroin Injury
  • Taha AyariOutCalf Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Malmö FF crestMalmö FF

4-3-3

  1. 1 Robin Olsen · G
  2. 2 Stian Gregersen · D
  3. 5 Andrej Đurić · D
  4. 17 Jens Stryger Larsen · D
  5. 25 Busanello · D
  6. 7 Otto Rosengren · M
  7. 29 Sead Hakšabanović · M
  8. 37 Adrian Skogmar · M
  9. 40 Kenan Busuladžić · M
  10. 45 Anton Höög · M
  11. 9 Diego García · F

AIK crestAIK

3-4-3

  1. 15 Kristoffer Nordfeldt · G
  2. 3 Herve Matthys · D
  3. 5 Lukas Bergquist · D
  4. 34 Wilmer Olofsson · D
  5. 47 Ladji Camara · D
  6. 7 Amel Mujanić · M
  7. 8 Johan Hove · M
  8. 18 Abdihakin Ali · M
  9. 46 Yannick Geiger · M
  10. 9 Linus Carlstrand · F
  11. 29 Kevin Filling · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Malmö FF crestMalmö FF

WLWLW
  • 10IK SiriusAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.67–1.51

  • 03Djurgårdens IFHome · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.09–1.65

  • 10GAISAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.38–1.29

  • 12Degerfors IFHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 2.49–0.70

  • 21IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 2 Aug 2026

    xG 3.22–1.78

AIK crestAIK

WWWLD
  • 32Hammarby IFHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.82–4.61

  • 31Djurgårdens IFAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.49–2.26

  • 43Örgryte ISAway · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 1.96–2.39

  • 03Örgryte ISHome · 2 Aug 2026

    xG 1.35–2.37

  • 00BK HäckenAway · 27 Jul 2026

    xG 0.29–2.44

How to read the Malmö FF vs AIK probabilities

Malmö FF vs AIK (Allsvenskan, 7 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Malmö FF win 59%. Expected goals are 2.02–1.09. Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Malmö FF is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.02–1.09). Malmö FF win is 59%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–1 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 60%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Malmö FF win
Kick-off
Mon 7 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Malmö FF vs AIK

Who is favourite for Malmö FF vs AIK?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 59%. Home 59%, draw 20%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Malmö FF vs AIK?
2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Malmö FF vs AIK go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 60% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Malmö FF vs AIK?
BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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