Who is favourite for Malmö FF vs AIK?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 59%. Home 59%, draw 21%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Malmö FF vs AIK?

2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Malmö FF vs AIK go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Malmö FF vs AIK?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Malmö FF vs AIK prediction

Clear lean

Malmö FF win 59%

Mon 7 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Eleda Stadium

Published 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 20 · 0/4 checks hit

Malmö FF

0–0

Draw

AIK

1X2

Malmö FF win

59%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Malmö FF win · 59%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Malmö FFvsAIK

Clear lean

Malmö FF win59%

Malmö FF win: 59%
Draw: 21%
AIK win: 20%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 2.00–1.07
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Malmö FF win 59%, from a +14 Elo gap (1613 vs 1598).
2Expected goals 2.00-1.07.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Anders Christiansen listed out and 13 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1613
+14
1598
Allsvenskan table
Out: Malmö FF3 out
Anders Christiansen
Emmanuel Ekong
Oscar Sjostrand
AIK11 out
Adrian Helm
Andreas Redkin
Dino Beširović
+8 more
XI: Expected XI
9 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/4-4-2
Last 5: Malmö FF
WLWLW
Avg xG 1.77-1.39
AIK
WWWLD
Avg xG 1.38-2.81

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

121Prediction9.9%
2119.7%
3109.4%
4209.3%
5316.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Malmö FF versus AIK
Malmö FF goals	0	1	2
0	4%	5%	3%
1	9%	10%	5%
2	9%	10%	5%
3	6%	7%	4%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Malmö FF win

Fair

1.69

59% model

Listed

1.71

56% book

Draw

Fair

4.77

21% model

Listed

4.16

23% book

AIK win

Fair

5.03

20% model

Listed

4.45

21% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.68
Listed: 1.61

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.46
Listed: 2.40

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.76
Listed: 1.58

BTTS no

Fair: 2.31
Listed: 2.30

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Malmö FF3 out

Anders ChristiansenOutLeg Injury
Emmanuel EkongOutKnee Surgery
Oscar SjostrandOutCruciate Ligament Injury

AIK11 out

Adrian HelmOutKnee Injury
Andreas RedkinOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Dino BeširovićOutThigh Injury
Diogo TomasOutUnknown
Kevin FillingOutUnknown
Fredrik NissenOutUnknown
Ibrahim CisséOutAnkle Injury
Martin EllingsenOutLeg Injury
Sotirios PapagiannopoulosOutKnee Injury
Stanley WilsonOutGroin Injury
Taha AyariOutCalf Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Malmö FF

AIK

Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Malmö FF

4-4-2

AIK

4-4-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Malmö FF

WLWLW

10IK SiriusAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.67–1.51
03Djurgårdens IFHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.09–1.65
10GAISAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.38–1.29
12Degerfors IFHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 2.49–0.70
21IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 2 Aug 2026
xG 3.22–1.78

AIK

WWWLD

32Hammarby IFHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.82–4.61
31Djurgårdens IFAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.49–2.26
43Örgryte ISAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 1.96–2.39
03Örgryte ISHome · 2 Aug 2026
xG 1.35–2.37
00BK HäckenAway · 27 Jul 2026
xG 0.29–2.44

How to read the Malmö FF vs AIK probabilities

Malmö FF vs AIK (Allsvenskan, 7 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Malmö FF win 59%. Expected goals are 2.00–1.07. Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Malmö FF is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.00–1.07). Malmö FF win is 59%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–1 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 59%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Malmö FF win
Kick-off: Mon 7 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Malmö FF vs AIK

Who is favourite for Malmö FF vs AIK?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 59%. Home 59%, draw 21%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Malmö FF vs AIK?: 2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Malmö FF vs AIK go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Malmö FF vs AIK?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.