Who is favourite for BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is BK Häcken win at 57%. Home 57%, draw 22%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF?

BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF prediction

Clear lean

BK Häcken win 57%

Fri 11 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Nordic Wellness Arena

Published 7 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 21 · 1/4 checks hit

BK Häcken

1–1

Draw

Mjällby AIF

1X2

BK Häcken win

57%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–0

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted BK Häcken win · 57%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

BK HäckenvsMjällby AIF

Clear lean

BK Häcken win57%

BK Häcken win: 57%
Draw: 22%
Mjällby AIF win: 20%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.86–1.01
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: BK Häcken win 57%, from a -48 Elo gap (1554 vs 1602).
2Expected goals 1.86-1.01.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 11%.
4Ben Engdahl listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1554
-48
1602
Allsvenskan table
Out: BK Häcken4 out
Ben Engdahl
Etrit Berisha
Filip Ohman
+1 more
Mjällby AIF2 out
Timo Stavitski
Villum Dalsgaard
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/5-3-2
Last 5: BK Häcken
DLWWL
Avg xG 1.80-1.81
Mjällby AIF
LLLWL
Avg xG 1.11-2.72

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

110Modal10.6%
211Result10.5%
321Prediction9.9%
4209.8%
5316.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for BK Häcken versus Mjällby AIF
BK Häcken goals	0	1	2
0	6%	6%	3%
1	11%	11%	5%
2	10%	10%	5%
3	6%	6%	3%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 20 Oct 2026, 07:06 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

BK Häcken win

Fair

1.74

57% model

Listed

1.54

64% book

Draw

Fair

4.48

22% model

Listed

4.75

21% book

Mjällby AIF win

Fair

4.91

20% model

Listed

6.50

15% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.83
Listed: 1.53

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.21
Listed: 2.55

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.87
Listed: 1.55

BTTS no

Fair: 2.16
Listed: 2.30

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

BK Häcken4 out

Ben EngdahlOutUnknown
Etrit BerishaOutStrain Injury
Filip OhmanOutShoulder Injury
Leo VäisänenOutKnock Injury

Mjällby AIF2 out

Timo StavitskiOutBack Injury
Villum DalsgaardOutUnknown

XI used for this forecast (expected, 7 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

BK Häcken

Mjällby AIF

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

BK Häcken

4-2-3-1

Mjällby AIF

5-3-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

BK Häcken

DLWWL

00GAISAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.14–1.54
13Västerås SKHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.17–2.27
30IK SiriusAway · 21 Aug 2026
xG 1.54–0.64
10Halmstads BKHome · 17 Aug 2026
xG 2.78–1.21
03Hammarby IFAway · 9 Aug 2026
xG 0.37–3.37

Mjällby AIF

LLLWL

14IFK GöteborgHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–1.94
02Djurgårdens IFHome · 3 Sept 2026
xG 1.53–2.80
04Djurgårdens IFAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.05–3.00
43IK SiriusHome · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.36–2.41
01IF ElfsborgHome · 8 Aug 2026
xG 1.71–3.47

How to read the BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF probabilities

BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF (Allsvenskan, 11 Sept 2026): Clear lean. BK Häcken win 57%. Expected goals are 1.86–1.01. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

BK Häcken is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.86–1.01). BK Häcken win is 57%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 55%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 7 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 393
Verdict: Clear lean · BK Häcken win
Kick-off: Fri 11 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF

Who is favourite for BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is BK Häcken win at 57%. Home 57%, draw 22%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF?: BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.