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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF Prediction

Clear lean

BK Häcken win 58%

· Nordic Wellness Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

BK Häcken crestBK HäckenvsMjällby AIF crestMjällby AIF
Clear lean

BK Häcken win58%

BK Häcken win
58%
Draw
21%
Mjällby AIF win
21%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–0 at 10%

Expected goals
1.91–1.05

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
57%
BTTS
55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: BK Häcken win 58%, from a -61 Elo gap (1552 vs 1613).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.91-1.05.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 10%.
  4. 4Ben Engdahl listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
BK Häcken crest

1552

-61

Mjällby AIF crest

1613

Allsvenskan table
Out

BK Häcken crestBK Häcken2 out

  • Ben Engdahl
  • Filip Ohman

Mjällby AIF crestMjällby AIF2 out

  • Timo Stavitski
  • Villum Dalsgaard
XI
Last league XI
4-5-1/3-4-3
Last 5

BK Häcken crestBK Häcken

LWWLD

Avg xG 1.56-1.82

Mjällby AIF crestMjällby AIF

LLWLL

Avg xG 1.03-2.47

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 110Modal10.5%
  2. 221Prediction9.9%
  3. 3119.9%
  4. 4209.5%
  5. 5316.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for BK Häcken versus Mjällby AIF
BK Häcken goals012345
05%6%3%
110%10%5%
29%10%5%
36%6%3%
43%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

BK Häcken win

BK Häcken win: model 58%, fair 1.73, listed 1.68 (57%)

Fair

1.73

58% model

Listed

1.68

57% book

Draw

Draw: model 21%, fair 4.74, listed 4.20 (23%)

Fair

4.74

21% model

Listed

4.20

23% book

Mjällby AIF win

Mjällby AIF win: model 21%, fair 4.76, listed 4.68 (20%)

Fair

4.76

21% model

Listed

4.68

20% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 57%, fair 1.77, listed 1.48 (62%)

Fair
1.77
Listed
1.48

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 43%, fair 2.30, listed 2.45 (38%)

Fair
2.30
Listed
2.45

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 55%, fair 1.83, listed 1.55 (59%)

Fair
1.83
Listed
1.55

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 45%, fair 2.21, listed 2.25 (41%)

Fair
2.21
Listed
2.25

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

BK Häcken crestBK Häcken2 out

  • Ben EngdahlOutUnknown
  • Filip OhmanOutShoulder Injury

Mjällby AIF crestMjällby AIF2 out

  • Timo StavitskiOutBack Injury
  • Villum DalsgaardOutUnknown

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

BK Häcken crestBK Häcken

4-5-1

  1. 99 Etrit Berisha · G
  2. 5 Brice Wembangomo · D
  3. 15 Leo Väisänen · D
  4. 22 Filip Helander · D
  5. 23 Olle Samuelsson · D
  6. 6 Abdoulaye Doumbia · M
  7. 10 Mikkel Rygaard · M
  8. 11 Julius Lindberg · M
  9. 19 David Seger · M
  10. 20 Adrian Svanback · M
  11. 9 Gustav Lindgren · F

Mjällby AIF crestMjällby AIF

3-4-3

  1. 1 Sebastian Hansen · G
  2. 4 Axel Norén · D
  3. 5 Abdullah Iqbal · D
  4. 24 Tom Pettersson · D
  5. 3 Martin Agnarsson · M
  6. 6 Mads Enggård · M
  7. 22 Jesper Gustavsson · M
  8. 25 Max Nielsen · M
  9. 7 Viktor Gustafson · F
  10. 18 Jacob Bergström · F
  11. 21 Villum Dalsgaard · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

BK Häcken crestBK Häcken

LWWLD
  • 13Västerås SKHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.17–2.27

  • 30IK SiriusAway · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 1.54–0.64

  • 10Halmstads BKHome · 17 Aug 2026

    xG 2.78–1.21

  • 03Hammarby IFAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 0.37–3.37

  • 11Kalmar FFHome · 1 Aug 2026

    xG 0.92–1.62

Mjällby AIF crestMjällby AIF

LLWLL
  • 02Djurgårdens IFHome · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 1.53–2.80

  • 04Djurgårdens IFAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.05–3.00

  • 43IK SiriusHome · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.36–2.41

  • 01IF ElfsborgHome · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 1.71–3.47

  • 12Kalmar FFAway · 25 Jul 2026

    xG 0.49–0.68

How to read the BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF probabilities

BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF (Allsvenskan, 11 Sept 2026): Clear lean. BK Häcken win 58%. Expected goals are 1.91–1.05. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

BK Häcken is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.91–1.05). BK Häcken win is 58%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · BK Häcken win
Kick-off
Fri 11 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF

Who is favourite for BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is BK Häcken win at 58%. Home 58%, draw 21%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF?
BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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