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Allsvenskan round 21 results

Allsvenskan round 21 has 8 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 75%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: AIK vs Västerås SK; BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Sweden. Model as-v1.1.0-elo. Round 21. Ledger updated 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Allsvenskan reliability

Round 21 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 42% (103 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 38% (261 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 58% (188 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 55% (107 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 76% (38 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 90% (20 matches)90–100%: predicted 94%, happened 33% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Allsvenskan: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0572 on 720 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0572. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 38 matches.

ECE
0.0572
Log loss
1.0142
RPS
0.2191
Walk-forward
720
1X2 accuracy
50%
Goal MAE
0.95
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%42%103+3%
40–50%45%38%261−7%
50–60%55%58%188+4%
60–70%64%55%107−9%
70–80%75%76%38+1%
80–90%83%90%20+7%
90–100%94%33%3−60%
Jump to roundAll182021222425

Allsvenskan round 21 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
8
Favourite-correct
75%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF212–02–1MissIK Sirius win · 64%HitOverMissYesMiss
Djurgårdens IF vs GAIS212–02–1MissDjurgårdens IF win · 62%HitOverMissYesMiss
Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS214–12–1MissMalmö FF win · 74%HitOverHitYesHit
Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna213–14–0MissHammarby IF win · 92%HitOverHitNoMiss
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF211–02–1MissIF Elfsborg win · 48%HitOverMissYesMiss
IFK Göteborg vs Halmstads BK212–12–0MissIFK Göteborg win · 70%HitOverHitNoMiss
AIK vs Västerås SK211–42–1MissAIK win · 44%MissOverHitYesHit
BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF211–12–1MissBK Häcken win · 57%MissOverMissYesHit

Previous: round 20All Allsvenskan resultsNext: round 22

Allsvenskan predictions

Allsvenskan round 21 questions

How did Expected90 do in Allsvenskan round 21?
8 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 75% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Allsvenskan round 21 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Allsvenskan rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 18, round 20, round 21, round 22, round 24, round 25.

as-v1.1.0-elo

Allsvenskan

Round 21 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
8 · 8
Log loss
0.6285·0.6892

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0607

RPS
0.1182·0.1322

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0140

Brier
0.3431·0.3815

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0384

Goal MAE
0.72
1X2 accuracy
75%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.58 · 80.6633·0.6715Δ -0.00820.2383·0.240350%Model · Closing line
Under 2.58 · 80.6633·0.6715Δ -0.00820.2383·0.240350%Model · Closing line
BTTS8 · 80.7377·0.6537Δ +0.08400.2720·0.230538%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.