Who is favourite for Västerås SK vs IK Sirius?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 45%. Home 31%, draw 24%, away 45%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Västerås SK vs IK Sirius?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Västerås SK vs IK Sirius go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Västerås SK vs IK Sirius?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Västerås SK vs IK Sirius prediction

Slight lean

IK Sirius win 45%

Sat 5 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon · Hitachi Energy Arena

Published 3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 20 · 1/4 checks hit

Västerås SK

0–1

IK Sirius won

IK Sirius

1X2

IK Sirius win

45%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted IK Sirius win · 45%

Actual IK Sirius won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 0–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Västerås SKvsIK Sirius

Slight lean

IK Sirius win45%

Västerås SK win: 31%
Draw: 24%
IK Sirius win: 45%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.22–1.52
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: IK Sirius win 45%, from a -119 Elo gap (1465 vs 1584).
2Expected goals 1.22-1.52.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Frédéric Nsabiyumva listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1465
-119
1584
Allsvenskan table
Out: Västerås SK1 out
Frédéric Nsabiyumva
IK Sirius2 out
Mohamed SoumahSuspended
Matthias Nartey
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
3-4-3/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Västerås SK
WDLWL
Avg xG 1.26-2.33
IK Sirius
LLLDW
Avg xG 1.96-1.22

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.5%
201Result10.3%
312Prediction9.1%
4108.3%
5027.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Västerås SK versus IK Sirius
Västerås SK goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	10%	7%	4%
1	8%	12%	9%	5%
2	5%	7%	6%	3%
3		3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Västerås SK win

Fair

3.24

31% model

Listed

4.33

22% book

Draw

Fair

4.11

24% model

Listed

4.25

23% book

IK Sirius win

Fair

2.24

45% model

Listed

1.78

55% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.94
Listed: 1.60

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.06
Listed: 2.48

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.83
Listed: 1.52

BTTS no

Fair: 2.20
Listed: 2.38

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Västerås SK1 out

Frédéric NsabiyumvaOutFoot Injury

IK Sirius2 out

Mohamed SoumahSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
Matthias NarteyOutUnknown

XI used for this forecast (expected, 3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Västerås SK

IK Sirius

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Västerås SK

3-4-3

IK Sirius

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Västerås SK

WDLWL

31BK HäckenAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.27–2.17
00Kalmar FFHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.98–1.11
03IF ElfsborgAway · 14 Aug 2026
xG 1.04–2.03
10Djurgårdens IFHome · 10 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–2.64
06Djurgårdens IFAway · 3 Aug 2026
xG 1.33–3.71

IK Sirius

LLLDW

01Malmö FFHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.51–1.67
03BK HäckenHome · 21 Aug 2026
xG 0.64–1.54
34Mjällby AIFAway · 15 Aug 2026
xG 2.41–1.36
22IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 10 Aug 2026
xG 2.16–0.55
20Halmstads BKAway · 3 Aug 2026
xG 3.10–0.97

How to read the Västerås SK vs IK Sirius probabilities

Västerås SK vs IK Sirius (Allsvenskan, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean. IK Sirius win 45%. Expected goals are 1.22–1.52. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–1.

IK Sirius holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.22–1.52). That shows up as IK Sirius win at 45%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · IK Sirius win
Kick-off: Sat 5 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Västerås SK vs IK Sirius

Who is favourite for Västerås SK vs IK Sirius?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 45%. Home 31%, draw 24%, away 45%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Västerås SK vs IK Sirius?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Västerås SK vs IK Sirius go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Västerås SK vs IK Sirius?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.