Skip to main content
E90

Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Västerås SK vs IK Sirius Prediction

Slight lean

IK Sirius win 45%

· Hitachi Energy Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Västerås SK crestVästerås SKvsIK Sirius crestIK Sirius
Slight lean

IK Sirius win45%

Västerås SK win
31%
Draw
24%
IK Sirius win
45%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.22–1.52

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
52%
BTTS
55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: IK Sirius win 45%, from a -119 Elo gap (1465 vs 1584).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.22-1.52.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Frédéric Nsabiyumva listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Västerås SK crest

1465

-119

IK Sirius crest

1584

Allsvenskan table
Out

Västerås SK crestVästerås SK1 out

  • Frédéric Nsabiyumva

IK Sirius crestIK Sirius3 out

  • Mohamed SoumahSuspended
  • Matthias Nartey
  • Otso Liimatta
XI
Predicted XI
3-4-3/4-3-3
Last 5

Västerås SK crestVästerås SK

WDLWL

Avg xG 1.26-2.33

IK Sirius crestIK Sirius

LLLDW

Avg xG 1.96-1.22

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.5%
  2. 20110.3%
  3. 312Prediction9.1%
  4. 4108.3%
  5. 5027.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Västerås SK versus IK Sirius
Västerås SK goals012345
06%10%7%4%
18%12%9%5%
25%7%6%3%
33%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Västerås SK win

Västerås SK win: model 31%, fair 3.24, listed 3.81 (25%)

Fair

3.24

31% model

Listed

3.81

25% book

Draw

Draw: model 24%, fair 4.11, listed 3.86 (24%)

Fair

4.11

24% model

Listed

3.86

24% book

IK Sirius win

IK Sirius win: model 45%, fair 2.24, listed 1.85 (51%)

Fair

2.24

45% model

Listed

1.85

51% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 52%, fair 1.94, listed 1.60 (61%)

Fair
1.94
Listed
1.60

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 48%, fair 2.06, listed 2.48 (39%)

Fair
2.06
Listed
2.48

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 55%, fair 1.83, listed 1.52 (61%)

Fair
1.83
Listed
1.52

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 45%, fair 2.20, listed 2.38 (39%)

Fair
2.20
Listed
2.38

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Västerås SK crestVästerås SK1 out

  • Frédéric NsabiyumvaOutFoot Injury

IK Sirius crestIK Sirius3 out

  • Mohamed SoumahSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
  • Matthias NarteyOutUnknown
  • Otso LiimattaOutUnknown

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Västerås SK crestVästerås SK

3-4-3

  1. 34 Elis Jäger · G
  2. 2 Herman Magnusson · D
  3. 4 Philip Bonde · D
  4. 24 Jack Tagesson · D
  5. 8 Mamadou Diagne · M
  6. 11 Simon Gefvert · M
  7. 15 Jonathan Karlsson · M
  8. 30 Mattias Hellisdal · M
  9. 16 Bonaventure Lendambi · F
  10. 17 Taonsa Axel · F
  11. 19 Jens Magnusson · F

IK Sirius crestIK Sirius

4-3-3

  1. 34 David Celic · G
  2. 4 Tobias Anker · D
  3. 5 Henrik Castegren · D
  4. 15 Simon Sandberg · D
  5. 22 Oscar Krusnell · D
  6. 6 Marcus Lindberg · M
  7. 7 Joakim Persson · M
  8. 10 Melker Heier · M
  9. 11 Isak Bjerkebo · M
  10. 24 Victor Svensson · M
  11. 25 Odera Samuel Adindu · M

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Västerås SK crestVästerås SK

WDLWL
  • 31BK HäckenAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.27–2.17

  • 00Kalmar FFHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.98–1.11

  • 03IF ElfsborgAway · 14 Aug 2026

    xG 1.04–2.03

  • 10Djurgårdens IFHome · 10 Aug 2026

    xG 0.67–2.64

  • 06Djurgårdens IFAway · 3 Aug 2026

    xG 1.33–3.71

IK Sirius crestIK Sirius

LLLDW
  • 01Malmö FFHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.51–1.67

  • 03BK HäckenHome · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 0.64–1.54

  • 34Mjällby AIFAway · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 2.41–1.36

  • 22IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 10 Aug 2026

    xG 2.16–0.55

  • 20Halmstads BKAway · 3 Aug 2026

    xG 3.10–0.97

How to read the Västerås SK vs IK Sirius probabilities

Västerås SK vs IK Sirius (Allsvenskan, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean. IK Sirius win 45%. Expected goals are 1.22–1.52. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

IK Sirius holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.22–1.52). That shows up as IK Sirius win at 45%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · IK Sirius win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Västerås SK vs IK Sirius

Who is favourite for Västerås SK vs IK Sirius?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 45%. Home 31%, draw 24%, away 45%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Västerås SK vs IK Sirius?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Västerås SK vs IK Sirius go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Västerås SK vs IK Sirius?
BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All Allsvenskan predictions