Who is favourite for AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is AIK win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 24%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will AIK vs Mjällby AIF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 18 · 2026/27

AIK vs Mjällby AIF prediction

Slight lean

AIK win 48%

Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Strawberry Arena

Published 9 Sept 2026, 17:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

AIKvsMjällby AIF

Slight lean

AIK win48%

AIK win: 48%
Draw: 24%
Mjällby AIF win: 28%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.63–1.18
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: AIK win 48%, from a -1 Elo gap (1600 vs 1602).
2Expected goals 1.63-1.18.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
4Adrian Helm listed out and 12 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1600
-1
1602
Allsvenskan table
Out: AIK11 out
Adrian Helm
Andreas Redkin
Dino Beširović
+8 more
Mjällby AIF2 out
Timo Stavitski
Villum Dalsgaard
XI: Last league XI
4-4-2/3-4-3
Last 5: AIK
DWWWL
Avg xG 1.65-2.91
Mjällby AIF
LLLWL
Avg xG 1.16-2.92

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.2%
21010.2%
321Prediction9.4%
4208.0%
5017.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for AIK versus Mjällby AIF
AIK goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	8%	4%
1	10%	11%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%
3	4%	5%	3%
4		2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AIK11 out

Adrian HelmOutKnee Injury
Andreas RedkinOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Dino BeširovićOutThigh Injury
Diogo TomasOutUnknown
Kevin FillingOutUnknown
Fredrik NissenOutUnknown
Ibrahim CisséOutAnkle Injury
Martin EllingsenOutLeg Injury
Sotirios PapagiannopoulosOutKnee Injury
Stanley WilsonOutGroin Injury
Taha AyariOutCalf Injury

Mjällby AIF2 out

Timo StavitskiOutBack Injury
Villum DalsgaardOutUnknown

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

AIK

4-4-2

Mjällby AIF

3-4-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AIK

DWWWL

00Malmö FFAway · 7 Sept 2026
32Hammarby IFHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.82–4.61
31Djurgårdens IFAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.49–2.26
43Örgryte ISAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 1.96–2.39
03Örgryte ISHome · 2 Aug 2026
xG 1.35–2.37

Mjällby AIF

LLLWL

14IFK GöteborgHome · 7 Sept 2026
02Djurgårdens IFHome · 3 Sept 2026
xG 1.53–2.80
04Djurgårdens IFAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.05–3.00
43IK SiriusHome · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.36–2.41
01IF ElfsborgHome · 8 Aug 2026
xG 1.71–3.47

How to read the AIK vs Mjällby AIF probabilities

AIK vs Mjällby AIF (Allsvenskan, 16 Sept 2026): Slight lean. AIK win 48%. Expected goals are 1.63–1.18. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

AIK holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.63–1.18). That shows up as AIK win at 48%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 55%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 9 Sept 2026, 17:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · AIK win
Kick-off: Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about AIK vs Mjällby AIF

Who is favourite for AIK vs Mjällby AIF?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is AIK win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 24%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for AIK vs Mjällby AIF?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will AIK vs Mjällby AIF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in AIK vs Mjällby AIF?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.