Who is favourite for AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Mjällby AIF win at 58%. Home 21%, draw 20%, away 58%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

1–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will AIK vs Mjällby AIF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 65% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

BTTS is 62%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 18 · 2026/27

AIK vs Mjällby AIF prediction

Clear lean

Mjällby AIF win 58%

Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Strawberry Arena

Published 15 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 18 · 1/4 checks hit

AIK

1–1

Draw

Mjällby AIF

1X2

Mjällby AIF win

58%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Mjällby AIF win · 58%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

AIKvsMjällby AIF

Clear lean

Mjällby AIF win58%

Open gameBoth likely

AIK win: 21%
Draw: 20%
Mjällby AIF win: 58%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.21–2.12
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 62%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Mjällby AIF win 58%, from a -14 Elo gap (1588 vs 1602).
2Expected goals 1.21-2.12.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 65%.
5Adrian Helm listed out and 13 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1588
-14
1602
Allsvenskan table
Out: AIK12 out
Adrian Helm
Andreas Redkin
Lukas Bergquist
+9 more
Mjällby AIF2 out
Timo Stavitski
Villum Dalsgaard
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
3-4-3/5-3-2
Last 5: AIK
LDWWW
Avg xG 1.84-2.87
Mjällby AIF
DLLLW
Avg xG 0.98-2.37

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

112Prediction9.7%
211Result9.0%
3028.0%
4017.8%
5136.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for AIK versus Mjällby AIF
AIK goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	3%	8%	8%	6%	3%
1	5%	9%	10%	7%	4%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%
3		2%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:56 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

AIK win

Fair

4.67

21% model

Listed

2.35

41% book

Draw

Fair

4.95

20% model

Listed

3.70

26% book

Mjällby AIF win

Disagrees

Fair

1.71

58% model

Listed

3.00

32% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Mjällby AIF win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.55
Listed: 1.70

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.83
Listed: 2.15

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.62
Listed: 1.58

BTTS no

Fair: 2.60
Listed: 2.28

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AIK12 out

Adrian HelmOutKnee Injury
Andreas RedkinOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Lukas BergquistOutKnee Injury
Dino BeširovićOutThigh Injury
Diogo TomasOutUnknown
Kevin FillingOutUnknown
Fredrik NissenOutUnknown
Ibrahim CisséOutAnkle Injury
Martin EllingsenOutLeg Injury
Sotirios PapagiannopoulosOutKnee Injury
Stanley WilsonOutGroin Injury
Taha AyariOutCalf Injury

Mjällby AIF2 out

Timo StavitskiOutBack Injury
Villum DalsgaardOutUnknown

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

AIK

Mjällby AIF

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

AIK

3-4-3

Mjällby AIF

5-3-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AIK

LDWWW

14Västerås SKHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 3.23–3.67
00Malmö FFAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.68–1.40
32Hammarby IFHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.82–4.61
31Djurgårdens IFAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.49–2.26
43Örgryte ISAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 1.96–2.39

Mjällby AIF

DLLLW

11BK HäckenAway · 11 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–1.71
14IFK GöteborgHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–1.94
02Djurgårdens IFHome · 3 Sept 2026
xG 1.53–2.80
04Djurgårdens IFAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.05–3.00
43IK SiriusHome · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.36–2.41

How to read the AIK vs Mjällby AIF probabilities

AIK vs Mjällby AIF (Allsvenskan, 16 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Mjällby AIF win 58%. Expected goals are 1.21–2.12. Prediction 1–2 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Mjällby AIF is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.21–2.12). Mjällby AIF win is 58%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–2 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 65%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 62%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 15 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Mjällby AIF win
Kick-off: Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about AIK vs Mjällby AIF

Who is favourite for AIK vs Mjällby AIF?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Mjällby AIF win at 58%. Home 21%, draw 20%, away 58%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for AIK vs Mjällby AIF?: 1–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will AIK vs Mjällby AIF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 65% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in AIK vs Mjällby AIF?: BTTS is 62%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.