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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg Prediction

Slight lean

IF Elfsborg win 49%

· Grimsta IP

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

IF Brommapojkarna crestIF BrommapojkarnavsIF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg
Slight lean

IF Elfsborg win49%

IF Brommapojkarna win
28%
Draw
23%
IF Elfsborg win
49%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.26–1.74

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
58%
BTTS
59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: IF Elfsborg win 49%, from a -100 Elo gap (1461 vs 1561).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.26-1.74.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
  4. 4Jordan Simpson suspended and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
IF Brommapojkarna crest

1461

-100

IF Elfsborg crest

1561

Allsvenskan table
Out

IF Brommapojkarna crestIF Brommapojkarna2 out

  • Jordan SimpsonSuspended
  • Oliver Berg

IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg1 out

  • Per Frick
XI
Predicted XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

IF Brommapojkarna crestIF Brommapojkarna

LWWDL

Avg xG 1.78-2.15

IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg

WDWWW

Avg xG 1.87-1.31

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal10.5%
  2. 212Prediction9.5%
  3. 3019.1%
  4. 4027.5%
  5. 5216.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for IF Brommapojkarna versus IF Elfsborg
IF Brommapojkarna goals012345
05%9%8%4%
17%11%9%5%2%
24%7%6%3%
33%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

IF Brommapojkarna win

IF Brommapojkarna win: model 28%, fair 3.55, listed 3.41 (27%)

Fair

3.55

28% model

Listed

3.41

27% book

Draw

Draw: model 23%, fair 4.40, listed 3.55 (26%)

Fair

4.40

23% model

Listed

3.55

26% book

IF Elfsborg win

IF Elfsborg win: model 49%, fair 2.04, listed 2.03 (46%)

Fair

2.04

49% model

Listed

2.03

46% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 58%, fair 1.74, listed 1.80 (53%)

Fair
1.74
Listed
1.80

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 42%, fair 2.36, listed 2.07 (47%)

Fair
2.36
Listed
2.07

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 59%, fair 1.71, listed 1.62 (57%)

Fair
1.71
Listed
1.62

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 41%, fair 2.41, listed 2.18 (43%)

Fair
2.41
Listed
2.18

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

IF Brommapojkarna crestIF Brommapojkarna2 out

  • Jordan SimpsonSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
  • Oliver BergOutUnknown

IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg1 out

  • Per FrickOutBroken Ankle

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

IF Brommapojkarna crestIF Brommapojkarna

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Leo Cavallius · G
  2. 3 Andreas Troelsen · D
  3. 4 Oskar Cotton · D
  4. 6 Oliver Zandén · D
  5. 7 Obilor Denzel Okeke · M
  6. 9 Mads Hansen · M
  7. 16 Simon Strand · M
  8. 20 Wilmer Odefalk · M
  9. 27 Kaare Barslund · M
  10. 17 Anton Kurochkin · F
  11. 34 David Isso · F

IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg

4-2-3-1

  1. 31 Isak Pettersson · G
  2. 4 Thomas Isherwood · D
  3. 6 Rasmus Wikström · D
  4. 23 Niklas Hult · D
  5. 9 Arbër Zeneli · M
  6. 10 Simon Olsson · M
  7. 16 Alexander Jensen · M
  8. 18 Julius Magnusson · M
  9. 19 Julius Beck · M
  10. 29 Momoh Ibrahim Kamara · M
  11. 21 Leo Östman · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IF Brommapojkarna crestIF Brommapojkarna

LWWDL
  • 04GAISAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.13–2.99

  • 20Degerfors IFHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 2.05–1.08

  • 31Örgryte ISHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 3.40–1.29

  • 22IK SiriusAway · 10 Aug 2026

    xG 0.55–2.16

  • 12Malmö FFHome · 2 Aug 2026

    xG 1.78–3.22

IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg

WDWWW
  • 20Degerfors IFHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.40–0.16

  • 11IFK GöteborgAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.54–2.36

  • 30Västerås SKHome · 14 Aug 2026

    xG 2.03–1.04

  • 10Mjällby AIFAway · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 3.47–1.71

  • 21Malmö FFAway · 26 Jul 2026

    xG 0.92–1.28

How to read the IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg probabilities

IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg (Allsvenskan, 6 Sept 2026): Slight lean. IF Elfsborg win 49%. Expected goals are 1.26–1.74. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

IF Elfsborg holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.26–1.74). That shows up as IF Elfsborg win at 49%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 58%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · IF Elfsborg win
Kick-off
Sun 6 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg

Who is favourite for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IF Elfsborg win at 49%. Home 28%, draw 23%, away 49%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 58% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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