Who is favourite for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IF Elfsborg win at 49%. Home 28%, draw 23%, away 49%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg prediction

Slight lean

IF Elfsborg win 49%

Sun 6 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon · Grimsta IP

Published 6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 20 · 2/4 checks hit

IF Brommapojkarna

2–1

IF Brommapojkarna won

IF Elfsborg

1X2

IF Elfsborg win

49%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted IF Elfsborg win · 49%

Actual IF Brommapojkarna won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 2–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

IF BrommapojkarnavsIF Elfsborg

Slight lean

IF Elfsborg win49%

IF Brommapojkarna win: 28%
Draw: 23%
IF Elfsborg win: 49%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.24–1.72
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: IF Elfsborg win 49%, from a -100 Elo gap (1461 vs 1561).
2Expected goals 1.24-1.72.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
4Jordan Simpson suspended and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1461
-100
1561
Allsvenskan table
Out: IF Brommapojkarna2 out
Jordan SimpsonSuspended
Oliver Berg
IF Elfsborg1 out
Per Frick
XI: Expected XI
4 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5: IF Brommapojkarna
LWWDL
Avg xG 1.78-2.15
IF Elfsborg
WDWWW
Avg xG 1.87-1.31

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal10.7%
212Prediction9.5%
3019.3%
4027.7%
5106.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for IF Brommapojkarna versus IF Elfsborg
IF Brommapojkarna goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	5%	9%	8%	4%
1	7%	11%	10%	5%	2%
2	4%	7%	6%	3%
3		3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 20 Oct 2026, 07:06 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

IF Brommapojkarna win

Fair

3.57

28% model

Listed

4.00

24% book

Draw

Fair

4.36

23% model

Listed

3.85

25% book

IF Elfsborg win

Fair

2.04

49% model

Listed

1.95

50% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.76
Listed: 1.80

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.31
Listed: 2.07

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.73
Listed: 1.62

BTTS no

Fair: 2.37
Listed: 2.18

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

IF Brommapojkarna2 out

Jordan SimpsonSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
Oliver BergOutUnknown

IF Elfsborg1 out

Per FrickOutBroken Ankle

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

IF Brommapojkarna

IF Elfsborg

Confirmed XIConfirmed4 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

IF Brommapojkarna

4-4-2

IF Elfsborg

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IF Brommapojkarna

LWWDL

04GAISAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.13–2.99
20Degerfors IFHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 2.05–1.08
31Örgryte ISHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 3.40–1.29
22IK SiriusAway · 10 Aug 2026
xG 0.55–2.16
12Malmö FFHome · 2 Aug 2026
xG 1.78–3.22

IF Elfsborg

WDWWW

20Degerfors IFHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.40–0.16
11IFK GöteborgAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.54–2.36
30Västerås SKHome · 14 Aug 2026
xG 2.03–1.04
10Mjällby AIFAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 3.47–1.71
21Malmö FFAway · 26 Jul 2026
xG 0.92–1.28

How to read the IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg probabilities

IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg (Allsvenskan, 6 Sept 2026): Slight lean. IF Elfsborg win 49%. Expected goals are 1.24–1.72. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–1.

IF Elfsborg holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.24–1.72). That shows up as IF Elfsborg win at 49%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 318
Verdict: Slight lean · IF Elfsborg win
Kick-off: Sun 6 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg

Who is favourite for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IF Elfsborg win at 49%. Home 28%, draw 23%, away 49%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.