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Allsvenskan round 18 results

Allsvenskan round 18 has 1 scored match on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 0%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: AIK vs Mjällby AIF. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Sweden. Model as-v1.1.0-elo. Round 18. Ledger updated 17 Sept 2026, 10:51 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Allsvenskan reliability

Round 18 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 42% (103 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 38% (261 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 58% (188 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 55% (107 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 76% (38 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 90% (20 matches)90–100%: predicted 94%, happened 33% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Allsvenskan: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0572 on 720 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0572. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 38 matches.

ECE
0.0572
Log loss
1.0142
RPS
0.2191
Walk-forward
720
1X2 accuracy
50%
Goal MAE
0.95
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%42%103+3%
40–50%45%38%261−7%
50–60%55%58%188+4%
60–70%64%55%107−9%
70–80%75%76%38+1%
80–90%83%90%20+7%
90–100%94%33%3−60%
Jump to roundAll182021

Allsvenskan round 18 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
1
Favourite-correct
0%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
AIK vs Mjällby AIF181–11–2MissMjällby AIF win · 58%MissOverMissYesHit

All Allsvenskan resultsNext: round 20

Allsvenskan predictions

Allsvenskan round 18 questions

How did Expected90 do in Allsvenskan round 18?
1 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 0% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Allsvenskan round 18 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Allsvenskan rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 18, round 20, round 21.

as-v1.1.0-elo

Allsvenskan

Live season 2026/27 · round 21

Matches scored
17
Log loss
0.9570
RPS
0.1798
Goal MAE
0.90
1X2 accuracy
53%

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.