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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

IFK Göteborg vs Halmstads BK Prediction

Strong favourite

IFK Göteborg win 70%

· Gamla Ullevi

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

IFK Göteborg crestIFK GöteborgvsHalmstads BK crestHalmstads BK
Strong favourite

IFK Göteborg win70%

Open game
IFK Göteborg win
70%
Draw
17%
Halmstads BK win
13%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 2–0 at 10%

Expected goals
2.40–0.93

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
65%
BTTS
55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: IFK Göteborg win 70%, from a +105 Elo gap (1523 vs 1418).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.40-0.93.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 10%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 65%.
  5. 5Arbnor Mucolli listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo
IFK Göteborg crest

1523

+105

Halmstads BK crest

1418

Allsvenskan table
Out

IFK Göteborg crestIFK Göteborg2 out

  • Arbnor Mucolli
  • Ramon Pascal Lundqvist

Halmstads BK crestHalmstads BKNone out

No listed absences

XI
Last league XI
4-4-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5

IFK Göteborg crestIFK Göteborg

WDLWW

Avg xG 2.05-1.39

Halmstads BK crestHalmstads BK

LWDLL

Avg xG 1.40-2.49

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Modal10.3%
  2. 221Prediction9.6%
  3. 3108.9%
  4. 4308.3%
  5. 5317.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for IFK Göteborg versus Halmstads BK
IFK Göteborg goals012345
03%4%
19%8%4%
210%10%4%
38%8%4%
45%5%2%
52%2%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

IFK Göteborg crestIFK Göteborg2 out · 1 doubtful

  • Arbnor MucolliOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Ramon Pascal LundqvistOutIllness
  • August ErlingmarkDoubtfulUnknown

Halmstads BK crestHalmstads BKNone out

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

IFK Göteborg crestIFK Göteborg

4-4-2

  1. 12 Viktor Andersson · G
  2. 3 August Erlingmark · D
  3. 6 Hjörtur Hermannsson · D
  4. 18 Felix Eriksson · D
  5. 22 Noah Tolf · D
  6. 14 Tobias Heintz · M
  7. 15 David Kruse · M
  8. 24 Oliver Månsson · M
  9. 29 Adam Bergmark Wiberg · M
  10. 7 Sebastian Clemmensen · F
  11. 8 Sam Larsson · F

Halmstads BK crestHalmstads BK

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Tim Rönning · G
  2. 3 Gabriel Wallentin · D
  3. 5 Pascal Gregor · D
  4. 17 Andre Boman · D
  5. 24 Rami Kaib · D
  6. 8 Niilo Mäenpää · M
  7. 14 Hussein Carneil · M
  8. 19 Marvin Illary · M
  9. 27 Rocco Ascone · M
  10. 28 Tom Trybull · M
  11. 23 Ajdin Zeljkovic · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IFK Göteborg crestIFK Göteborg

WDLWW
  • 10Örgryte ISHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.86–0.81

  • 11IF ElfsborgHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 2.36–1.54

  • 03Degerfors IFAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.13–1.70

  • 32Kalmar FFHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 2.71–0.99

  • 20Degerfors IFHome · 2 Aug 2026

    xG 2.19–1.91

Halmstads BK crestHalmstads BK

LWDLL
  • 02Degerfors IFAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.80–2.83

  • 10Kalmar FFHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.15–1.74

  • 11Örgryte ISAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 2.67–2.09

  • 01BK HäckenAway · 17 Aug 2026

    xG 1.21–2.78

  • 02GAISHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 1.17–2.99

How to read the IFK Göteborg vs Halmstads BK probabilities

IFK Göteborg vs Halmstads BK (Allsvenskan, 12 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. IFK Göteborg win 70%. Expected goals are 2.40–0.93. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

IFK Göteborg is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.40–0.93). IFK Göteborg win is 70%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 65%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · IFK Göteborg win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about IFK Göteborg vs Halmstads BK

Who is favourite for IFK Göteborg vs Halmstads BK?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is IFK Göteborg win at 70%. Home 70%, draw 17%, away 13%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IFK Göteborg vs Halmstads BK?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will IFK Göteborg vs Halmstads BK go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 65% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IFK Göteborg vs Halmstads BK?
BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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