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Allsvenskan · Round 24 · 2026/27

Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIF prediction

Slight lean

Västerås SK win 41%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Västerås SKvsMjällby AIF
Slight lean

Västerås SK win41%

Västerås SK win
41%
Draw
26%
Mjällby AIF win
33%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 8%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.31–1.15

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
45%
BTTS
49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over70%
Under30%
2.5 goals
Over45%
Under55%
3.5 goals
Over23%
Under77%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Västerås SK win 41%, from a -112 Elo gap (1481 vs 1593).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.31-1.15.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo

1481

-112

1593

Allsvenskan table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Västerås SK

WWLWD

Avg xG 1.72-2.06

Mjällby AIF

LDDLL

Avg xG 1.30-2.19

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.5%
  2. 21011.6%
  3. 30110.2%
  4. 421Prediction8.5%
  5. 5008.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Västerås SK versus Mjällby AIF
Västerås SK goals012345
08%10%6%2%
112%13%7%3%
27%8%5%
33%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Västerås SK win

Västerås SK win: model 41%, fair 2.45, listed 2.45 (40%)

Fair

2.45

41% model

Listed

2.45

40% book

Draw

Draw: model 26%, fair 3.78, listed 3.65 (27%)

Fair

3.78

26% model

Listed

3.65

27% book

Mjällby AIF win

Mjällby AIF win: model 33%, fair 3.06, listed 3.00 (33%)

Fair

3.06

33% model

Listed

3.00

33% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 45%, fair 2.25, listed 1.85 (52%)

Fair
2.25
Listed
1.85

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 55%, fair 1.80, listed 2.02 (48%)

Fair
1.80
Listed
2.02

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 49%, fair 2.02, listed 1.62 (58%)

Fair
2.02
Listed
1.62

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 51%, fair 1.98, listed 2.21 (42%)

Fair
1.98
Listed
2.21

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Västerås SK

  1. 34 Elis Jäger · G
  2. 2 Herman Magnusson · D
  3. 4 Philip Bonde · D
  4. 15 Jonathan Karlsson · D
  5. 24 Jack Tagesson · D
  6. 5 Karl Gunnarsson · M
  7. 8 Mamadou Diagne · M
  8. 11 Simon Gefvert · M
  9. 30 Mattias Hellisdal · M
  10. 16 Bonaventure Lendambi · F
  11. 17 Taonsa Axel · F

Mjällby AIF

  1. 13 Robin Wallinder · G
  2. 4 Axel Norén · D
  3. 5 Abdullah Iqbal · D
  4. 24 Tom Pettersson · D
  5. 33 Tony Miettinen · D
  6. 14 Villiam Granath · M
  7. 22 Jesper Gustavsson · M
  8. 25 Max Nielsen · M
  9. 7 Viktor Gustafson · F
  10. 9 Ali Youssef · F
  11. 18 Jacob Bergström · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Västerås SK

WWLWD
  • 20Malmö FFHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 0.71–2.82

  • 41AIKAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 3.67–3.23

  • 01IK SiriusHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.98–0.99

  • 31BK HäckenAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.27–2.17

  • 00Kalmar FFHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.98–1.11

Mjällby AIF

LDDLL
  • 03GAISHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.20–1.34

  • 11AIKAway · 16 Sept 2026

    xG 1.84–3.18

  • 11BK HäckenAway · 11 Sept 2026

    xG 1.02–1.71

  • 14IFK GöteborgHome · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 0.92–1.94

  • 02Djurgårdens IFHome · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 1.53–2.80

How to read the Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIF probabilities

Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIF (Allsvenskan, 18 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Västerås SK win 41%. Expected goals are 1.31–1.15. Prediction 2–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Västerås SK and Mjällby AIF are close on expected goals (1.31–1.15), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 8%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Västerås SK win
Kick-off
Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIF

Who is favourite for Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIF?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Västerås SK win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 26%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIF?
2–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIF?
BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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