Who is favourite for Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Degerfors IF win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 24%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK?

2–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK prediction

Balanced

Degerfors IF win 39%

Sat 5 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon · Stora Valla

Published 3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 20 · 1/4 checks hit

Degerfors IF

2–0

Degerfors IF won

Halmstads BK

1X2

Degerfors IF win

39%Hit

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Degerfors IF win · 39%

Actual Degerfors IF won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Degerfors IFvsHalmstads BK

Balanced

Degerfors IF win39%

Degerfors IF win: 39%
Draw: 24%
Halmstads BK win: 37%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.47–1.44
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Degerfors IF win 39%, from a -1 Elo gap (1423 vs 1425).
2Expected goals 1.47-1.44.
3Prediction 2–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
4Robin Dzabic suspended and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1423
-1
1425
Allsvenskan table
Out: Degerfors IF2 out
Robin DzabicSuspended
Juhani Pikkarainen
Halmstads BKNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Degerfors IF
LLWWL
Avg xG 1.11-1.85
Halmstads BK
WDLLL
Avg xG 1.43-2.54

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.1%
2108.5%
321Prediction8.5%
4018.3%
5128.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Degerfors IF versus Halmstads BK
Degerfors IF goals	0	1	2	3
0	5%	8%	6%	3%
1	8%	11%	8%	4%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Degerfors IF win

Fair

2.58

39% model

Listed

2.12

46% book

Draw

Fair

4.19

24% model

Listed

3.50

28% book

Halmstads BK win

Fair

2.68

37% model

Listed

3.62

27% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.80
Listed: 2.05

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.25
Listed: 1.85

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.72
Listed: 1.80

BTTS no

Fair: 2.39
Listed: 1.92

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Degerfors IF2 out

Robin DzabicSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
Juhani PikkarainenOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Halmstads BKNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Degerfors IF

Halmstads BK

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Degerfors IF

4-4-2

Halmstads BK

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Degerfors IF

LLWWL

02IF ElfsborgAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.16–1.40
02IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.08–2.05
30IFK GöteborgHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.70–1.13
21Malmö FFAway · 9 Aug 2026
xG 0.70–2.49
02IFK GöteborgAway · 2 Aug 2026
xG 1.91–2.19

Halmstads BK

WDLLL

10Kalmar FFHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.15–1.74
11Örgryte ISAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 2.67–2.09
01BK HäckenAway · 17 Aug 2026
xG 1.21–2.78
02GAISHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 1.17–2.99
02IK SiriusHome · 3 Aug 2026
xG 0.97–3.10

How to read the Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK probabilities

Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK (Allsvenskan, 5 Sept 2026): Balanced. Degerfors IF win 39%. Expected goals are 1.47–1.44. Prediction 2–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–0.

Degerfors IF and Halmstads BK are close on expected goals (1.47–1.44), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 8%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Degerfors IF win
Kick-off: Sat 5 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK

Who is favourite for Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Degerfors IF win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 24%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.