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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK Prediction

Balanced

Degerfors IF win 39%

· Stora Valla

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IFvsHalmstads BK crestHalmstads BK
Balanced

Degerfors IF win39%

Degerfors IF win
39%
Draw
24%
Halmstads BK win
37%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 8%

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.47–1.44

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
56%
BTTS
58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Degerfors IF win 39%, from a -1 Elo gap (1423 vs 1425).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.47-1.44.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
  4. 4Robin Dzabic suspended and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo
Degerfors IF crest

1423

-1

Halmstads BK crest

1425

Allsvenskan table
Out

Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF2 out

  • Robin DzabicSuspended
  • Juhani Pikkarainen

Halmstads BK crestHalmstads BKNone out

No listed absences

XI
Predicted XI
4-4-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF

LLWWL

Avg xG 1.11-1.85

Halmstads BK crestHalmstads BK

WDLLL

Avg xG 1.43-2.54

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.1%
  2. 2108.5%
  3. 321Prediction8.5%
  4. 4018.3%
  5. 5128.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Degerfors IF versus Halmstads BK
Degerfors IF goals012345
05%8%6%3%
18%11%8%4%
26%8%6%3%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Degerfors IF win

Degerfors IF win: model 39%, fair 2.58, listed 1.95 (48%)

Fair

2.58

39% model

Listed

1.95

48% book

Draw

Draw: model 24%, fair 4.19, listed 3.41 (28%)

Fair

4.19

24% model

Listed

3.41

28% book

Halmstads BK win

Disagrees

Halmstads BK win: model 37%, fair 2.68, listed 3.90 (24%)

Fair

2.68

37% model

Listed

3.90

24% book

The model disagrees with the listed Halmstads BK win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.80, listed 2.05 (47%)

Fair
1.80
Listed
2.05

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.25, listed 1.85 (53%)

Fair
2.25
Listed
1.85

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 58%, fair 1.72, listed 1.80 (52%)

Fair
1.72
Listed
1.80

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 42%, fair 2.39, listed 1.92 (48%)

Fair
2.39
Listed
1.92

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF2 out

  • Robin DzabicSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
  • Juhani PikkarainenOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Halmstads BK crestHalmstads BKNone out

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF

4-4-2

  1. 38 Matvei Igonen · G
  2. 2 Ahmad Faqa · D
  3. 3 Nikolai Skuseth · D
  4. 16 Sebastian Ohlsson · D
  5. 18 Samba Diatara · D
  6. 4 Kazper Karlsson · M
  7. 8 Bilal Hussein · M
  8. 20 Elias Barsoum · M
  9. 22 Nahom Girmai · M
  10. 11 Dijan Vukojevic · F
  11. 17 Arman Taranis · F

Halmstads BK crestHalmstads BK

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Tim Rönning · G
  2. 3 Gabriel Wallentin · D
  3. 5 Pascal Gregor · D
  4. 17 Andre Boman · D
  5. 24 Rami Kaib · D
  6. 8 Niilo Mäenpää · M
  7. 14 Hussein Carneil · M
  8. 19 Marvin Illary · M
  9. 27 Rocco Ascone · M
  10. 28 Tom Trybull · M
  11. 9 Omar Faraj · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF

LLWWL
  • 02IF ElfsborgAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.16–1.40

  • 02IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.08–2.05

  • 30IFK GöteborgHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.70–1.13

  • 21Malmö FFAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 0.70–2.49

  • 02IFK GöteborgAway · 2 Aug 2026

    xG 1.91–2.19

Halmstads BK crestHalmstads BK

WDLLL
  • 10Kalmar FFHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.15–1.74

  • 11Örgryte ISAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 2.67–2.09

  • 01BK HäckenAway · 17 Aug 2026

    xG 1.21–2.78

  • 02GAISHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 1.17–2.99

  • 02IK SiriusHome · 3 Aug 2026

    xG 0.97–3.10

How to read the Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK probabilities

Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK (Allsvenskan, 5 Sept 2026): Balanced. Degerfors IF win 39%. Expected goals are 1.47–1.44. Prediction 2–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Degerfors IF and Halmstads BK are close on expected goals (1.47–1.44), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 8%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Degerfors IF win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK

Who is favourite for Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Degerfors IF win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 24%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK?
2–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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