Who is favourite for Västerås SK vs Malmö FF?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 50%. Home 25%, draw 25%, away 50%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Västerås SK vs Malmö FF?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Västerås SK vs Malmö FF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Västerås SK vs Malmö FF?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2627.0

Västerås SK vs Malmö FF prediction

Slight lean

Malmö FF win 50%

Sat 19 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon · Hitachi Energy Arena

Published 17 Sept 2026, 10:51 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 22 · 2/4 checks hit

Västerås SK

2–0

Västerås SK won

Malmö FF

1X2

Malmö FF win

50%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 0–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Malmö FF win · 50%

Actual Västerås SK won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Västerås SKvsMalmö FF

Slight lean

Malmö FF win50%

Västerås SK win: 25%
Draw: 25%
Malmö FF win: 50%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.01–1.55
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Malmö FF win 50%, from a -143 Elo gap (1471 vs 1614).
2Expected goals 1.01-1.55.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%.
4Bonaventure Lendambi suspended and 6 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1471
-143
1614
Allsvenskan table
Out: Västerås SK1 out
Bonaventure LendambiSuspended
Malmö FF6 out
Anders Christiansen
Emmanuel Ekong
Isaac Assibu
+3 more
XI: Expected XI
6 changes from the expected XI
3-4-3/4-3-3
Last 5: Västerås SK
WLWDL
Avg xG 1.79-1.91
Malmö FF
WDWLW
Avg xG 1.58-1.29

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

101Modal12.2%
21112.0%
312Prediction9.4%
4029.3%
5108.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Västerås SK versus Malmö FF
Västerås SK goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	12%	9%	5%
1	8%	12%	9%	5%
2	4%	6%	5%	2%
3		2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 06:47 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Västerås SK win

Fair

4.04

25% model

Listed

3.75

26% book

Draw

Fair

3.97

25% model

Listed

4.00

24% book

Malmö FF win

Fair

2.00

50% model

Listed

1.98

49% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.12
Listed: 1.70

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.89
Listed: 2.20

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.00
Listed: 1.57

BTTS no

Fair: 2.00
Listed: 2.28

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Västerås SK1 out

Bonaventure LendambiSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension

Malmö FF6 out

Anders ChristiansenOutLeg Injury
Emmanuel EkongOutKnee Surgery
Isaac AssibuOutUnknown
Kenan BusuladžićOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Noah Åstrand JohnOutUnknown
Oscar SjostrandOutCruciate Ligament Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 17 Sept 2026, 10:51 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Västerås SK

Malmö FF

Confirmed XIConfirmed6 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Västerås SK

3-4-3

Malmö FF

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Västerås SK

WLWDL

41AIKAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 3.67–3.23
01IK SiriusHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.98–0.99
31BK HäckenAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.27–2.17
00Kalmar FFHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.98–1.11
03IF ElfsborgAway · 14 Aug 2026
xG 1.04–2.03

Malmö FF

WDWLW

41Örgryte ISHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 3.36–1.31
00AIKHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.40–0.68
10IK SiriusAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.67–1.51
03Djurgårdens IFHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.09–1.65
10GAISAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.38–1.29

How to read the Västerås SK vs Malmö FF probabilities

Västerås SK vs Malmö FF (Allsvenskan, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Malmö FF win 50%. Expected goals are 1.01–1.55. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–0.

Malmö FF holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.01–1.55). That shows up as Malmö FF win at 50%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 17 Sept 2026, 10:51 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Malmö FF win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Västerås SK vs Malmö FF

Who is favourite for Västerås SK vs Malmö FF?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 50%. Home 25%, draw 25%, away 50%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Västerås SK vs Malmö FF?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Västerås SK vs Malmö FF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Västerås SK vs Malmö FF?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.