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E90

Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2026/27

Västerås SK vs Malmö FF prediction

Slight lean

Malmö FF win 50%

· Hitachi Energy Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Västerås SKvsMalmö FF
Slight lean

Malmö FF win50%

Västerås SK win
25%
Draw
25%
Malmö FF win
50%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 0–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.01–1.55

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
47%
BTTS
50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Malmö FF win 50%, from a -143 Elo gap (1471 vs 1614).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.01-1.55.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Bonaventure Lendambi suspended and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1471

-143

1614

Allsvenskan table
Out

Västerås SK1 out

  • Bonaventure LendambiSuspended

Malmö FF4 out

  • Anders Christiansen
  • Emmanuel Ekong
  • Kenan Busuladžić
  • +1 more
XI
Predicted XI
3-4-3/4-4-2
Last 5

Västerås SK

WLWDL

Avg xG 1.32-1.58

Malmö FF

WDWLW

Avg xG 1.05-1.48

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 101Modal12.2%
  2. 21111.9%
  3. 312Prediction9.4%
  4. 4029.3%
  5. 5108.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Västerås SK versus Malmö FF
Västerås SK goals012345
08%12%9%5%
18%12%9%5%
24%6%5%2%
32%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Västerås SK win

Västerås SK win: model 25%, fair 4.04, listed 3.19 (29%)

Fair

4.04

25% model

Listed

3.19

29% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 3.99, listed 3.60 (26%)

Fair

3.99

25% model

Listed

3.60

26% book

Malmö FF win

Malmö FF win: model 50%, fair 1.99, listed 2.07 (45%)

Fair

1.99

50% model

Listed

2.07

45% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 47%, fair 2.13, listed 1.70 (57%)

Fair
2.13
Listed
1.70

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 53%, fair 1.89, listed 2.28 (43%)

Fair
1.89
Listed
2.28

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 50%, fair 2.01, listed 1.57 (59%)

Fair
2.01
Listed
1.57

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 50%, fair 1.99, listed 2.25 (41%)

Fair
1.99
Listed
2.25

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Västerås SK1 out

  • Bonaventure LendambiSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension

Malmö FF4 out

  • Anders ChristiansenOutLeg Injury
  • Emmanuel EkongOutKnee Surgery
  • Kenan BusuladžićOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Oscar SjostrandOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Västerås SK

3-4-3

  1. 34 Elis Jäger · G
  2. 4 Philip Bonde · D
  3. 21 Victor Wernersson · D
  4. 24 Jack Tagesson · D
  5. 8 Mamadou Diagne · M
  6. 11 Simon Gefvert · M
  7. 15 Jonathan Karlsson · M
  8. 30 Mattias Hellisdal · M
  9. 9 Casper Risbjerg · F
  10. 17 Taonsa Axel · F
  11. 19 Jens Magnusson · F

Malmö FF

4-4-2

  1. 1 Robin Olsen · G
  2. 2 Stian Gregersen · D
  3. 17 Jens Stryger Larsen · D
  4. 25 Busanello · D
  5. 44 Malte Palsson · D
  6. 7 Otto Rosengren · M
  7. 29 Sead Hakšabanović · M
  8. 37 Adrian Skogmar · M
  9. 45 Anton Höög · M
  10. 47 Theodor Lundbergh · M
  11. 32 Daníel Tristan Guðjohnsen · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Västerås SK

WLWDL
  • 41AIKAway · 12 Sept 2026
  • 01IK SiriusHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.98–0.99

  • 31BK HäckenAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.27–2.17

  • 00Kalmar FFHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.98–1.11

  • 03IF ElfsborgAway · 14 Aug 2026

    xG 1.04–2.03

Malmö FF

WDWLW
  • 41Örgryte ISHome · 13 Sept 2026
  • 00AIKHome · 7 Sept 2026
  • 10IK SiriusAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.67–1.51

  • 03Djurgårdens IFHome · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.09–1.65

  • 10GAISAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.38–1.29

How to read the Västerås SK vs Malmö FF probabilities

Västerås SK vs Malmö FF (Allsvenskan, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Malmö FF win 50%. Expected goals are 1.01–1.55. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Malmö FF holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.01–1.55). That shows up as Malmö FF win at 50%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Malmö FF win
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Västerås SK vs Malmö FF

Who is favourite for Västerås SK vs Malmö FF?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 50%. Home 25%, draw 25%, away 50%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Västerås SK vs Malmö FF?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Västerås SK vs Malmö FF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Västerås SK vs Malmö FF?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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