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Allsvenskan round 22 results

Allsvenskan round 22 has 8 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 50%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Mjällby AIF vs GAIS; Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg; Halmstads BK vs AIK; Västerås SK vs Malmö FF. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Sweden. Model as-v1.1.0-elo. Round 22. Ledger updated 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Allsvenskan reliability

Round 22 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 42% (103 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 38% (261 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 58% (188 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 55% (107 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 76% (38 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 90% (20 matches)90–100%: predicted 94%, happened 33% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Allsvenskan: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0572 on 720 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0572. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 38 matches.

ECE
0.0572
Log loss
1.0142
RPS
0.2191
Walk-forward
720
1X2 accuracy
50%
Goal MAE
0.95
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%42%103+3%
40–50%45%38%261−7%
50–60%55%58%188+4%
60–70%64%55%107−9%
70–80%75%76%38+1%
80–90%83%90%20+7%
90–100%94%33%3−60%
Jump to roundAll18202122242526

Allsvenskan round 22 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
8
Favourite-correct
50%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF220–11–2MissHammarby IF win · 68%HitOverMissYesMiss
Mjällby AIF vs GAIS220–32–1MissMjällby AIF win · 39%MissOverHitYesMiss
Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg221–22–1MissDjurgårdens IF win · 60%MissOverHitYesHit
Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken220–51–2MissBK Häcken win · 42%HitUnderMissYesMiss
Halmstads BK vs AIK222–11–2MissAIK win · 49%MissOverHitYesHit
Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius221–21–2HitIK Sirius win · 61%HitOverHitYesHit
IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Göteborg220–11–2MissIFK Göteborg win · 43%HitOverMissYesMiss
Västerås SK vs Malmö FF222–01–2MissMalmö FF win · 50%MissUnderHitNoHit

Previous: round 21All Allsvenskan resultsNext: round 24

Allsvenskan predictions

Allsvenskan round 22 questions

How did Expected90 do in Allsvenskan round 22?
8 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 50% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Allsvenskan round 22 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Allsvenskan rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 18, round 20, round 21, round 22, round 24, round 25, round 26.

as-v1.1.0-elo

Allsvenskan

Round 22 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
8 · 8
Log loss
0.9904·1.0331

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0427

RPS
0.2704·0.2789

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0085

Brier
0.5935·0.6145

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0210

Goal MAE
1.14
1X2 accuracy
50%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.58 · 80.6897·0.6729Δ +0.01680.2480·0.240163%Model · Closing line
Under 2.58 · 80.6897·0.6729Δ +0.01680.2480·0.240163%Model · Closing line
BTTS8 · 80.7262·0.7402Δ -0.01400.2664·0.273250%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.