Final 1–2·IK Sirius win 61%
Hit- IS
- 17%
- Draw
- 21%
- Sirius
- 61%
- xG home
- 0.92
- xG away
- 1.94
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 51%
as-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageAllsvenskan round 22 results
Allsvenskan round 22 has 3 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 67%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Västerås SK vs Malmö FF. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.
Sweden. Model as-v1.1.0-elo. Round 22. Ledger updated 19 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.
Allsvenskan reliability
Round 22 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
ECE 0.0572. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 38 matches.
- ECE
- 0.0572
- Log loss
- 1.0142
- RPS
- 0.2191
- Walk-forward
- 720
- 1X2 accuracy
- 50%
- Goal MAE
- 0.95
Bin frequencies
| Bin | Predicted | Happened | n | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38% | 42% | 103 | +3% |
| 40–50% | 45% | 38% | 261 | −7% |
| 50–60% | 55% | 58% | 188 | +4% |
| 60–70% | 64% | 55% | 107 | −9% |
| 70–80% | 75% | 76% | 38 | +1% |
| 80–90% | 83% | 90% | 20 | +7% |
| 90–100% | 94% | 33% | 3 | −60% |
Allsvenskan round 22 scored matches
Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.
- Matches in view
- 3
- Favourite-correct
- 67%
- Prediction hits
- 1
| Match | Round | Result | Prediction | 1X2 favourite | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius | 22 | 1–2 | 1–2Hit | IK Sirius win · 61%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Göteborg | 22 | 0–1 | 1–2Miss | IFK Göteborg win · 43%Hit | OverMiss | YesMiss |
| Västerås SK vs Malmö FF | 22 | 2–0 | 1–2Miss | Malmö FF win · 50%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
Previous: round 21All Allsvenskan results
Final 0–1·IFK Göteborg win 43%
Hit- Brommapojkarna
- 33%
- Draw
- 24%
- Göteborg
- 43%
- xG home
- 1.37
- xG away
- 1.60
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- BTTS
- 59%
as-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Final 2–0·Malmö FF win 50%
Miss- SK
- 25%
- Draw
- 25%
- FF
- 50%
- xG home
- 1.01
- xG away
- 1.55
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- BTTS
- 50%
as-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageAllsvenskan round 22 questions
- How did Expected90 do in Allsvenskan round 22?
- 3 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 67% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
- Where are the Allsvenskan round 22 match pages?
- Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
- Can I see other Allsvenskan rounds?
- Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 18, round 20, round 21, round 22.
as-v1.1.0-elo
Allsvenskan
Live season 2026/27 · round 22
- Matches scored
- 20
- Log loss
- 0.9501
- RPS
- 0.1886
- Goal MAE
- 0.88
- 1X2 accuracy
- 55%
Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.