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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

AIK vs Västerås SK Prediction

Slight lean

AIK win 44%

· Strawberry Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

AIK crestAIKvsVästerås SK crestVästerås SK
Slight lean

AIK win44%

AIK win
44%
Draw
23%
Västerås SK win
32%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.61–1.33

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
56%
BTTS
58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: AIK win 44%, from a +140 Elo gap (1598 vs 1459).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.61-1.33.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
  4. 4Adrian Helm listed out and 12 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
AIK crest

1598

+140

Västerås SK crest

1459

Allsvenskan table
Out

AIK crestAIK12 out

  • Adrian Helm
  • Andreas Redkin
  • Dino Beširović
  • +9 more

Västerås SK crestVästerås SK1 out

  • Frédéric Nsabiyumva
XI
Last league XI
3-4-3/3-4-3
Last 5

AIK crestAIK

WWWLD

Avg xG 1.38-2.81

Västerås SK crestVästerås SK

LWDLW

Avg xG 1.19-1.79

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal10.9%
  2. 221Prediction9.1%
  3. 3108.9%
  4. 4127.5%
  5. 5017.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for AIK versus Västerås SK
AIK goals012345
05%7%5%2%
19%11%8%3%
27%9%6%3%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AIK crestAIK12 out

  • Adrian HelmOutKnee Injury
  • Andreas RedkinOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Dino BeširovićOutThigh Injury
  • Diogo TomasOutUnknown
  • Eskil EdhOutHamstring Injury
  • Fredrik NissenOutUnknown
  • Ibrahim CisséOutAnkle Injury
  • Mads Døhr ThychosenOutUnknown
  • Martin EllingsenOutLeg Injury
  • Sotirios PapagiannopoulosOutKnee Injury
  • Stanley WilsonOutGroin Injury
  • Taha AyariOutCalf Injury

Västerås SK crestVästerås SK1 out

  • Frédéric NsabiyumvaOutFoot Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

AIK crestAIK

3-4-3

  1. 15 Kristoffer Nordfeldt · G
  2. 3 Herve Matthys · D
  3. 19 Dino Beširović · D
  4. 34 Wilmer Olofsson · D
  5. 5 Lukas Bergquist · M
  6. 7 Amel Mujanić · M
  7. 18 Abdihakin Ali · M
  8. 46 Yannick Geiger · M
  9. 8 Johan Hove · F
  10. 9 Linus Carlstrand · F
  11. 29 Kevin Filling · F

Västerås SK crestVästerås SK

3-4-3

  1. 34 Elis Jäger · G
  2. 2 Herman Magnusson · D
  3. 4 Philip Bonde · D
  4. 24 Jack Tagesson · D
  5. 8 Mamadou Diagne · M
  6. 11 Simon Gefvert · M
  7. 15 Jonathan Karlsson · M
  8. 30 Mattias Hellisdal · M
  9. 16 Bonaventure Lendambi · F
  10. 17 Taonsa Axel · F
  11. 19 Jens Magnusson · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AIK crestAIK

WWWLD
  • 32Hammarby IFHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.82–4.61

  • 31Djurgårdens IFAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.49–2.26

  • 43Örgryte ISAway · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 1.96–2.39

  • 03Örgryte ISHome · 2 Aug 2026

    xG 1.35–2.37

  • 00BK HäckenAway · 27 Jul 2026

    xG 0.29–2.44

Västerås SK crestVästerås SK

LWDLW
  • 01IK SiriusHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.98–0.99

  • 31BK HäckenAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.27–2.17

  • 00Kalmar FFHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.98–1.11

  • 03IF ElfsborgAway · 14 Aug 2026

    xG 1.04–2.03

  • 10Djurgårdens IFHome · 10 Aug 2026

    xG 0.67–2.64

How to read the AIK vs Västerås SK probabilities

AIK vs Västerås SK (Allsvenskan, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. AIK win 44%. Expected goals are 1.61–1.33. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

AIK holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.61–1.33). That shows up as AIK win at 44%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · AIK win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about AIK vs Västerås SK

Who is favourite for AIK vs Västerås SK?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is AIK win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 23%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for AIK vs Västerås SK?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will AIK vs Västerås SK go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in AIK vs Västerås SK?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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