Who is favourite for IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 55%. Home 22%, draw 23%, away 55%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 24 · 2026/27

IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF prediction

Clear lean

Djurgårdens IF win 55%

Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon · Grimsta IP

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 24 · 1/4 checks hit

IF Brommapojkarna

0–2

Djurgårdens IF won

Djurgårdens IF

1X2

Djurgårdens IF win

55%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 0–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Djurgårdens IF win · 55%

Actual Djurgårdens IF won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 0–2

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

IF BrommapojkarnavsDjurgårdens IF

Clear lean

Djurgårdens IF win55%

IF Brommapojkarna win: 22%
Draw: 23%
Djurgårdens IF win: 55%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.00–1.75
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals2 scored · Hit: Over76%; Under24%
2.5 goals2 scored · Miss: Over52%; Under48%
3.5 goals2 scored · Hit: Over30%; Under70%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Djurgårdens IF win 55%, from a -159 Elo gap (1471 vs 1630).
2Expected goals 1.00-1.75.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 11%.
4Miro Tenho suspended.

Match briefing

Elo: 1471
-159
1630
Allsvenskan table
Out: IF BrommapojkarnaNone out
No listed absences
Djurgårdens IF1 out
Miro TenhoSuspended
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
5-4-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: IF Brommapojkarna
WLLWL
Avg xG 1.46-2.16
Djurgårdens IF
WLWWW
Avg xG 1.74-1.53

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

101Modal11.5%
21110.9%
312Prediction9.8%
402Result9.8%
5106.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for IF Brommapojkarna versus Djurgårdens IF
IF Brommapojkarna goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	6%	11%	10%	6%	2%
1	7%	11%	10%	6%	2%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 08:38 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

IF Brommapojkarna win

Fair

4.58

22% model

Listed

6.75

14% book

Closing 6.20

Draw

Fair

4.36

23% model

Listed

4.80

20% book

Closing 4.58

Djurgårdens IF win

Fair

1.81

55% model

Listed

1.50

65% book

Closing 1.51

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 32 hours before kick-off

Closing 1X2 · H 6.20 · D 4.58 · A 1.51 · captured 18 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.54

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.08
Listed: 2.50

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.92
Listed: 1.65

BTTS no

Fair: 2.08
Listed: 2.16

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

IF BrommapojkarnaNone out

No listed absences.

Djurgårdens IF1 out

Miro TenhoSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

IF Brommapojkarna

Djurgårdens IF

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

IF Brommapojkarna

5-4-1

Djurgårdens IF

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IF Brommapojkarna

WLLWL

65AIKAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.85–2.45
01IFK GöteborgHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.79–2.38
13Hammarby IFAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.00–2.02
21IF ElfsborgHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.51–0.98
04GAISAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.13–2.99

Djurgårdens IF

WLWWW

10Hammarby IFAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.75–1.01
12IF ElfsborgHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.40–1.68
20GAISHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 2.27–1.76
10Kalmar FFAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.48–1.65
20Mjällby AIFAway · 3 Sept 2026
xG 2.80–1.53

How to read the IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF probabilities

IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF (Allsvenskan, 16 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Djurgårdens IF win 55%. Expected goals are 1.00–1.75. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–2.

Djurgårdens IF holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.00–1.75). That shows up as Djurgårdens IF win at 55%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Djurgårdens IF win
Kick-off: Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF

Who is favourite for IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 55%. Home 22%, draw 23%, away 55%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF?: BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.