Who is favourite for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IF Elfsborg win at 52%. Home 52%, draw 24%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF Prediction

Slight lean

IF Elfsborg win 52%

Sun 13 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon · Borås Arena

Published 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

IF Elfsborgvs

Kalmar FF

Slight lean

IF Elfsborg win52%

IF Elfsborg win: 52%
Draw: 24%
Kalmar FF win: 24%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.70–1.07
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: IF Elfsborg win 52%, from a +81 Elo gap (1561 vs 1479).
2Expected goals 1.70-1.07.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
4Per Frick listed out.

Match briefing

Elo: IF Elfsborg crest
1561
+81
Kalmar FF crest
1479
Allsvenskan table
Out: IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg1 out
Per Frick
Kalmar FF crestKalmar FFNone out
No listed absences
XI: Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-4-2
Last 5: IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg
DWDWW
Avg xG 2.11-1.32
Kalmar FF crestKalmar FF
LDLLD
Avg xG 1.18-1.91

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.2%
21010.8%
321Prediction9.7%
4209.0%
5016.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for IF Elfsborg versus Kalmar FF
IF Elfsborg goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	7%	4%
1	11%	11%	6%	2%
2	9%	10%	5%
3	5%	6%	3%
4	2%	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg1 out

Per FrickOutBroken Ankle

Kalmar FF crestKalmar FFNone out

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg

4-2-3-1

Kalmar FF crestKalmar FF

4-4-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg

DWDWW

11IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 6 Sept 2026
20Degerfors IFHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.40–0.16
11IFK GöteborgAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.54–2.36
30Västerås SKHome · 14 Aug 2026
xG 2.03–1.04
10Mjällby AIFAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 3.47–1.71

Kalmar FF crestKalmar FF

LDLLD

01Halmstads BKAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.74–1.15
00Västerås SKAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.11–0.98
04Hammarby IFHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.42–3.78
23IFK GöteborgAway · 9 Aug 2026
xG 0.99–2.71
11BK HäckenAway · 1 Aug 2026
xG 1.62–0.92

How to read the IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF probabilities

IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF (Allsvenskan, 13 Sept 2026): Slight lean. IF Elfsborg win 52%. Expected goals are 1.70–1.07. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

IF Elfsborg holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.70–1.07). That shows up as IF Elfsborg win at 52%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · IF Elfsborg win
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF

Who is favourite for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IF Elfsborg win at 52%. Home 52%, draw 24%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?: BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.