Who is favourite for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IF Elfsborg win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 24%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF prediction

Slight lean

IF Elfsborg win 48%

Sun 13 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon · Borås Arena

Published 13 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 21 · 1/4 checks hit

IF Elfsborg

1–0

IF Elfsborg won

Kalmar FF

1X2

IF Elfsborg win

48%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted IF Elfsborg win · 48%

Actual IF Elfsborg won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

IF ElfsborgvsKalmar FF

Slight lean

IF Elfsborg win48%

IF Elfsborg win: 48%
Draw: 24%
Kalmar FF win: 27%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.60–1.13
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: IF Elfsborg win 48%, from a +80 Elo gap (1553 vs 1473).
2Expected goals 1.60-1.13.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Jakob Kindberg listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1553
+80
1473
Allsvenskan table
Out: IF ElfsborgNone out
No listed absences
Kalmar FF2 out
Jakob Kindberg
Kasper Paananen
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-4-2
Last 5: IF Elfsborg
LWDWW
Avg xG 1.88-1.36
Kalmar FF
LLDLL
Avg xG 1.18-1.82

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.5%
210Result10.7%
321Prediction9.4%
4208.3%
5017.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for IF Elfsborg versus Kalmar FF
IF Elfsborg goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	8%	4%
1	11%	12%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%
3	4%	5%	3%
4		2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 19:12 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

IF Elfsborg win

Fair

2.07

48% model

Listed

1.96

51% book

Draw

Fair

4.11

24% model

Listed

3.65

27% book

Kalmar FF win

Fair

3.67

27% model

Listed

4.70

21% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.94
Listed: 1.86

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.06
Listed: 1.95

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.86
Listed: 1.72

BTTS no

Fair: 2.17
Listed: 2.02

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

IF ElfsborgNone out

No listed absences.

Kalmar FF2 out

Jakob KindbergOutAnkle Injury
Kasper PaananenOutThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 13 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

IF Elfsborg

Kalmar FF

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

IF Elfsborg

4-2-3-1

Kalmar FF

4-4-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IF Elfsborg

LWDWW

12IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.98–1.51
20Degerfors IFHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.40–0.16
11IFK GöteborgAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.54–2.36
30Västerås SKHome · 14 Aug 2026
xG 2.03–1.04
10Mjällby AIFAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 3.47–1.71

Kalmar FF

LLDLL

01Djurgårdens IFHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.65–0.48
01Halmstads BKAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.74–1.15
00Västerås SKAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.11–0.98
04Hammarby IFHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.42–3.78
23IFK GöteborgAway · 9 Aug 2026
xG 0.99–2.71

How to read the IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF probabilities

IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF (Allsvenskan, 13 Sept 2026): Slight lean. IF Elfsborg win 48%. Expected goals are 1.60–1.13. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

IF Elfsborg holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.60–1.13). That shows up as IF Elfsborg win at 48%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 575
Verdict: Slight lean · IF Elfsborg win
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF

Who is favourite for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IF Elfsborg win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 24%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?: BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.