Who is favourite for Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 53%. Home 24%, draw 23%, away 53%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF prediction

Slight lean

Djurgårdens IF win 53%

Mon 7 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Guldfageln Arena

Published 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 20 · 1/4 checks hit

Kalmar FF

0–1

Djurgårdens IF won

Djurgårdens IF

1X2

Djurgårdens IF win

53%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Djurgårdens IF win · 53%

Actual Djurgårdens IF won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 0–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Kalmar FFvsDjurgårdens IF

Slight lean

Djurgårdens IF win53%

Kalmar FF win: 24%
Draw: 23%
Djurgårdens IF win: 53%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.13–1.80
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Djurgårdens IF win 53%, from a -141 Elo gap (1479 vs 1620).
2Expected goals 1.13-1.80.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1479
-141
1620
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Kalmar FF
LDLLD
Avg xG 1.18-1.91
Djurgårdens IF
WWWLL
Avg xG 2.47-0.97

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal10.7%
201Result9.8%
312Prediction9.8%
4028.7%
5106.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Kalmar FF versus Djurgårdens IF
Kalmar FF goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	5%	10%	9%	5%	2%
1	6%	11%	10%	6%	3%
2	3%	6%	6%	3%
3		2%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Kalmar FF win

Fair

4.20

24% model

Listed

5.00

19% book

Draw

Fair

4.40

23% model

Listed

4.18

23% book

Djurgårdens IF win

Fair

1.87

53% model

Listed

1.66

58% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.79
Listed: 1.70

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.27
Listed: 2.20

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.78
Listed: 1.72

BTTS no

Fair: 2.28
Listed: 2.02

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Kalmar FF

Djurgårdens IF

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Kalmar FF

4-4-2

Djurgårdens IF

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Kalmar FF

LDLLD

01Halmstads BKAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.74–1.15
00Västerås SKAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.11–0.98
04Hammarby IFHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.42–3.78
23IFK GöteborgAway · 9 Aug 2026
xG 0.99–2.71
11BK HäckenAway · 1 Aug 2026
xG 1.62–0.92

Djurgårdens IF

WWWLL

20Mjällby AIFAway · 3 Sept 2026
xG 2.80–1.53
40Mjällby AIFHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 3.00–0.05
30Malmö FFAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.65–1.09
13AIKHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 2.26–1.49
01Västerås SKAway · 10 Aug 2026
xG 2.64–0.67

How to read the Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF probabilities

Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF (Allsvenskan, 7 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Djurgårdens IF win 53%. Expected goals are 1.13–1.80. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–1.

Djurgårdens IF holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.13–1.80). That shows up as Djurgårdens IF win at 53%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Djurgårdens IF win
Kick-off: Mon 7 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF

Who is favourite for Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 53%. Home 24%, draw 23%, away 53%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.