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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF Prediction

Slight lean

Djurgårdens IF win 54%

· Guldfageln Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Kalmar FF crestKalmar FFvsDjurgårdens IF crestDjurgårdens IF
Slight lean

Djurgårdens IF win54%

Kalmar FF win
24%
Draw
22%
Djurgårdens IF win
54%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 10%

Expected goals
1.11–1.81

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
56%
BTTS
56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Djurgårdens IF win 54%, from a -141 Elo gap (1479 vs 1620).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.11-1.81.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%.

Match briefing

Elo
Kalmar FF crest

1479

-141

Djurgårdens IF crest

1620

Allsvenskan table
Out

None listed

XI
Predicted XI
4-4-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Kalmar FF crestKalmar FF

LDLLD

Avg xG 1.18-1.91

Djurgårdens IF crestDjurgårdens IF

WWWLL

Avg xG 2.47-0.97

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal10.4%
  2. 20110.1%
  3. 312Prediction9.8%
  4. 4028.8%
  5. 5106.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Kalmar FF versus Djurgårdens IF
Kalmar FF goals012345
05%10%9%5%2%
16%10%10%6%3%
23%6%5%3%
32%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Kalmar FF win

Kalmar FF win: model 24%, fair 4.24, listed 4.28 (22%)

Fair

4.24

24% model

Listed

4.28

22% book

Draw

Draw: model 22%, fair 4.51, listed 3.78 (25%)

Fair

4.51

22% model

Listed

3.78

25% book

Djurgårdens IF win

Djurgårdens IF win: model 54%, fair 1.84, listed 1.76 (53%)

Fair

1.84

54% model

Listed

1.76

53% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.78, listed 1.68 (57%)

Fair
1.78
Listed
1.68

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.27, listed 2.20 (43%)

Fair
2.27
Listed
2.20

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 56%, fair 1.79, listed 1.60 (58%)

Fair
1.79
Listed
1.60

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 44%, fair 2.26, listed 2.17 (42%)

Fair
2.26
Listed
2.17

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Kalmar FF crestKalmar FF

4-4-2

  1. 1 Samuel Brolin · G
  2. 2 Victor Larsson · D
  3. 3 Sivert Engh Overby · D
  4. 20 Alexander Almqvist · D
  5. 39 Lars Sætra · D
  6. 5 Melker Hallberg · M
  7. 10 Marius Söderbäck · M
  8. 23 Robert Gojani · M
  9. 9 Malcolm Stolt · F
  10. 19 Eskild Dall · F
  11. 24 Charles Sagoe Jr. · F

Djurgårdens IF crestDjurgårdens IF

4-2-3-1

  1. 35 Jacob Rinne · G
  2. 2 Piotr Johansson · D
  3. 4 Jacob Une Larsson · D
  4. 5 Miro Tenho · D
  5. 18 Adam Ståhl · D
  6. 8 Patric Åslund · M
  7. 11 Oskar Fallenius · M
  8. 13 Daniel Stensson · M
  9. 16 Bo Åsulv Hegland · M
  10. 20 Matias Siltanen · M
  11. 9 Kristian Stromland Lien · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Kalmar FF crestKalmar FF

LDLLD
  • 01Halmstads BKAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.74–1.15

  • 00Västerås SKAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.11–0.98

  • 04Hammarby IFHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.42–3.78

  • 23IFK GöteborgAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 0.99–2.71

  • 11BK HäckenAway · 1 Aug 2026

    xG 1.62–0.92

Djurgårdens IF crestDjurgårdens IF

WWWLL
  • 20Mjällby AIFAway · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 2.80–1.53

  • 40Mjällby AIFHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 3.00–0.05

  • 30Malmö FFAway · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.65–1.09

  • 13AIKHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 2.26–1.49

  • 01Västerås SKAway · 10 Aug 2026

    xG 2.64–0.67

How to read the Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF probabilities

Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF (Allsvenskan, 7 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Djurgårdens IF win 54%. Expected goals are 1.11–1.81. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Djurgårdens IF holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.11–1.81). That shows up as Djurgårdens IF win at 54%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Djurgårdens IF win
Kick-off
Mon 7 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF

Who is favourite for Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 54%. Home 24%, draw 22%, away 54%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF?
1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF?
BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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