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Allsvenskan round 20 results

Allsvenskan round 20 has 8 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 38%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg; Malmö FF vs AIK; IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg; Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF; GAIS vs BK Häcken. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Sweden. Model as-v1.1.0-elo. Round 20. Ledger updated 21 Oct 2026, 14:09 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Allsvenskan reliability

Round 20 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 42% (103 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 38% (261 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 58% (188 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 55% (107 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 76% (38 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 90% (20 matches)90–100%: predicted 94%, happened 33% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Allsvenskan: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0572 on 720 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0572. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 38 matches.

ECE
0.0572
Log loss
1.0142
RPS
0.2191
Walk-forward
720
1X2 accuracy
50%
Goal MAE
0.95
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%42%103+3%
40–50%45%38%261−7%
50–60%55%58%188+4%
60–70%64%55%107−9%
70–80%75%76%38+1%
80–90%83%90%20+7%
90–100%94%33%3−60%
Jump to roundAll18202122

Allsvenskan round 20 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
8
Favourite-correct
38%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg201–42–1MissMjällby AIF win · 43%MissOverHitYesHit
Malmö FF vs AIK200–02–1MissMalmö FF win · 59%MissOverMissYesMiss
Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF200–11–2MissDjurgårdens IF win · 53%HitOverMissYesMiss
IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg202–11–2MissIF Elfsborg win · 49%MissOverHitYesHit
Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF201–11–2MissHammarby IF win · 73%MissOverMissYesHit
Västerås SK vs IK Sirius200–11–2MissIK Sirius win · 45%HitOverMissYesMiss
GAIS vs BK Häcken200–02–1MissGAIS win · 50%MissOverMissYesMiss
Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK202–02–1MissDegerfors IF win · 39%HitOverMissYesMiss

Previous: round 18All Allsvenskan resultsNext: round 21

Allsvenskan predictions

Allsvenskan round 20 questions

How did Expected90 do in Allsvenskan round 20?
8 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 38% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Allsvenskan round 20 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Allsvenskan rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 18, round 20, round 21, round 22.

as-v1.1.0-elo

Allsvenskan

Round 20 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
8 · 8
Log loss
1.2054·1.1738

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0316

RPS
0.2397·0.2223

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0174

Brier
0.7549·0.7254

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0295

Goal MAE
1.11
1X2 accuracy
38%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.58 · 80.7866·0.8401Δ -0.05350.2951·0.320425%Model · Closing line
Under 2.58 · 80.7866·0.8401Δ -0.05350.2951·0.320425%Model · Closing line
BTTS8 · 80.7196·0.7550Δ -0.03540.2632·0.280238%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.