Who is favourite for Halmstads BK vs AIK?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is AIK win at 49%. Home 27%, draw 24%, away 49%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Halmstads BK vs AIK?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Halmstads BK vs AIK go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Halmstads BK vs AIK?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2627.0

Halmstads BK vs AIK prediction

Slight lean

AIK win 49%

Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon · Örjans Vall

Published 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 22 · 2/4 checks hit

Halmstads BK

2–1

Halmstads BK won

AIK

1X2

AIK win

49%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted AIK win · 49%

Actual Halmstads BK won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 2–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Halmstads BKvsAIK

Slight lean

AIK win49%

Halmstads BK win: 27%
Draw: 24%
AIK win: 49%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.14–1.62
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: AIK win 49%, from a -173 Elo gap (1414 vs 1587).
2Expected goals 1.14-1.62.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Tom Trybull suspended and 11 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1414
-173
1587
Allsvenskan table
Out: Halmstads BK1 out
Tom TrybullSuspended
AIK11 out
Adrian Helm
Andreas Redkin
Lukas Bergquist
+8 more
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Halmstads BK
LLWDL
Avg xG 1.45-2.24
AIK
DLDWW
Avg xG 2.08-2.76

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.5%
20110.4%
312Prediction9.5%
4028.3%
5107.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Halmstads BK versus AIK
Halmstads BK goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	6%	10%	8%	4%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%
3		3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 06:47 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Halmstads BK win

Fair

3.71

27% model

Listed

3.75

26% book

Draw

Fair

4.11

24% model

Listed

3.95

25% book

AIK win

Fair

2.05

49% model

Listed

2.00

49% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.91
Listed: 1.65

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.09
Listed: 2.30

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.83
Listed: 1.53

BTTS no

Fair: 2.20
Listed: 2.38

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Halmstads BK1 out

Tom TrybullSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension

AIK11 out

Adrian HelmOutKnee Injury
Andreas RedkinOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Lukas BergquistOutKnee Injury
Dino BeširovićOutThigh Injury
Diogo TomasOutUnknown
Kevin FillingOutUnknown
Fredrik NissenOutUnknown
Ibrahim CisséOutAnkle Injury
Martin EllingsenOutLeg Injury
Sotirios PapagiannopoulosOutKnee Injury
Taha AyariOutCalf Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Halmstads BK

AIK

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Halmstads BK

4-4-2

AIK

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Halmstads BK

LLWDL

12IFK GöteborgAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.42–1.76
02Degerfors IFAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.80–2.83
10Kalmar FFHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.15–1.74
11Örgryte ISAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 2.67–2.09
01BK HäckenAway · 17 Aug 2026
xG 1.21–2.78

AIK

DLDWW

11Mjällby AIFHome · 16 Sept 2026
xG 3.18–1.84
14Västerås SKHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 3.23–3.67
00Malmö FFAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.68–1.40
32Hammarby IFHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.82–4.61
31Djurgårdens IFAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.49–2.26

How to read the Halmstads BK vs AIK probabilities

Halmstads BK vs AIK (Allsvenskan, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. AIK win 49%. Expected goals are 1.14–1.62. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–1.

AIK holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.14–1.62). That shows up as AIK win at 49%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · AIK win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Halmstads BK vs AIK

Who is favourite for Halmstads BK vs AIK?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is AIK win at 49%. Home 27%, draw 24%, away 49%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Halmstads BK vs AIK?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Halmstads BK vs AIK go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Halmstads BK vs AIK?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.