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Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2026/27

Halmstads BK vs AIK prediction

Slight lean

AIK win 46%

· Örjans Vall

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Halmstads BKvsAIK
Slight lean

AIK win46%

Halmstads BK win
29%
Draw
25%
AIK win
46%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.16–1.51

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: AIK win 46%, from a -174 Elo gap (1414 vs 1588).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.16-1.51.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Tom Trybull suspended and 11 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1414

-174

1588

Allsvenskan table
Out

Halmstads BK1 out

  • Tom TrybullSuspended

AIK11 out

  • Adrian Helm
  • Andreas Redkin
  • Dino Beširović
  • +8 more
XI
Last league XI
5-4-1/4-4-2
Last 5

Halmstads BK

LLWDL

Avg xG 1.46-2.36

AIK

LDWWW

Avg xG 1.76-3.09

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.9%
  2. 20110.7%
  3. 312Prediction9.2%
  4. 4108.2%
  5. 5027.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Halmstads BK versus AIK
Halmstads BK goals012345
07%11%8%4%
18%12%9%5%
25%7%5%3%
33%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Halmstads BK win

Halmstads BK win: model 29%, fair 3.41, listed 3.42 (27%)

Fair

3.41

29% model

Listed

3.42

27% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 3.98, listed 3.53 (27%)

Fair

3.98

25% model

Listed

3.53

27% book

AIK win

AIK win: model 46%, fair 2.20, listed 2.03 (46%)

Fair

2.20

46% model

Listed

2.03

46% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 50%, fair 2.00, listed 1.75 (55%)

Fair
2.00
Listed
1.75

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 50%, fair 2.00, listed 2.10 (45%)

Fair
2.00
Listed
2.10

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 53%, fair 1.88, listed 1.60 (58%)

Fair
1.88
Listed
1.60

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 47%, fair 2.14, listed 2.20 (42%)

Fair
2.14
Listed
2.20

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Halmstads BK1 out

  • Tom TrybullSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension

AIK11 out · 1 doubtful

  • Adrian HelmOutKnee Injury
  • Andreas RedkinOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Dino BeširovićOutThigh Injury
  • Diogo TomasOutUnknown
  • Kevin FillingOutUnknown
  • Fredrik NissenOutUnknown
  • Ibrahim CisséOutAnkle Injury
  • Martin EllingsenOutLeg Injury
  • Sotirios PapagiannopoulosOutKnee Injury
  • Stanley WilsonOutGroin Injury
  • Taha AyariOutCalf Injury
  • Lukas BergquistDoubtfulKnee Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Halmstads BK

5-4-1

  1. 1 Tim Rönning · G
  2. 3 Gabriel Wallentin · D
  3. 5 Pascal Gregor · D
  4. 16 Erko Jonne Tougjas · D
  5. 17 Andre Boman · D
  6. 24 Rami Kaib · D
  7. 11 Ludvig Arvidsson · M
  8. 14 Hussein Carneil · M
  9. 27 Rocco Ascone · M
  10. 28 Tom Trybull · M
  11. 23 Ajdin Zeljkovic · F

AIK

4-4-2

  1. 15 Kristoffer Nordfeldt · G
  2. 3 Herve Matthys · D
  3. 5 Lukas Bergquist · D
  4. 17 Mads Døhr Thychosen · D
  5. 34 Wilmer Olofsson · D
  6. 8 Johan Hove · M
  7. 18 Abdihakin Ali · M
  8. 46 Yannick Geiger · M
  9. 48 Axel Kouame · M
  10. 9 Linus Carlstrand · F
  11. 10 Lucas Assadi · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Halmstads BK

LLWDL
  • 12IFK GöteborgAway · 12 Sept 2026
  • 02Degerfors IFAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.80–2.83

  • 10Kalmar FFHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.15–1.74

  • 11Örgryte ISAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 2.67–2.09

  • 01BK HäckenAway · 17 Aug 2026

    xG 1.21–2.78

AIK

LDWWW
  • 14Västerås SKHome · 12 Sept 2026
  • 00Malmö FFAway · 7 Sept 2026
  • 32Hammarby IFHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.82–4.61

  • 31Djurgårdens IFAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.49–2.26

  • 43Örgryte ISAway · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 1.96–2.39

How to read the Halmstads BK vs AIK probabilities

Halmstads BK vs AIK (Allsvenskan, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. AIK win 46%. Expected goals are 1.16–1.51. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

AIK holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.16–1.51). That shows up as AIK win at 46%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · AIK win
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Halmstads BK vs AIK

Who is favourite for Halmstads BK vs AIK?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is AIK win at 46%. Home 29%, draw 25%, away 46%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Halmstads BK vs AIK?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Halmstads BK vs AIK go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Halmstads BK vs AIK?
BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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