Who is favourite for Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Mjällby AIF win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 24%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg prediction

Slight lean

Mjällby AIF win 43%

Mon 7 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Strandvallen

Published 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 20 · 2/4 checks hit

Mjällby AIF

1–4

IFK Göteborg won

IFK Göteborg

1X2

Mjällby AIF win

43%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Mjällby AIF win · 43%

Actual IFK Göteborg won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–4

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Mjällby AIFvsIFK Göteborg

Slight lean

Mjällby AIF win43%

Mjällby AIF win: 43%
Draw: 24%
IFK Göteborg win: 33%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.58–1.35
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Mjällby AIF win 43%, from a +90 Elo gap (1613 vs 1523).
2Expected goals 1.58-1.35.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
4Timo Stavitski listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1613
+90
1523
Allsvenskan table
Out: Mjällby AIF2 out
Timo Stavitski
Villum Dalsgaard
IFK Göteborg4 out
Adam Bergmark WibergSuspended
Arbnor Mucolli
August Erlingmark
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
3-4-3/4-3-3
Last 5: Mjällby AIF
LLWLL
Avg xG 1.03-2.47
IFK Göteborg
WDLWW
Avg xG 2.05-1.39

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.2%
221Prediction9.0%
3108.6%
4127.7%
5017.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Mjällby AIF versus IFK Göteborg
Mjällby AIF goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	5%	7%	5%	2%
1	9%	11%	8%	3%	1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 20 Oct 2026, 07:06 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Mjällby AIF win

Fair

2.32

43% model

Listed

2.45

40% book

Draw

Fair

4.16

24% model

Listed

3.60

27% book

IFK Göteborg win

Fair

3.05

33% model

Listed

3.00

33% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.78
Listed: 1.80

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.28
Listed: 2.07

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.71
Listed: 1.60

BTTS no

Fair: 2.42
Listed: 2.22

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Mjällby AIF2 out

Timo StavitskiOutBack Injury
Villum DalsgaardOutUnknown

IFK Göteborg4 out

Adam Bergmark WibergSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
Arbnor MucolliOutCruciate Ligament Injury
August ErlingmarkOutFoot Injury
Ramon Pascal LundqvistOutIllness

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Mjällby AIF

IFK Göteborg

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Mjällby AIF

3-4-3

IFK Göteborg

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Mjällby AIF

LLWLL

02Djurgårdens IFHome · 3 Sept 2026
xG 1.53–2.80
04Djurgårdens IFAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.05–3.00
43IK SiriusHome · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.36–2.41
01IF ElfsborgHome · 8 Aug 2026
xG 1.71–3.47
12Kalmar FFAway · 25 Jul 2026
xG 0.49–0.68

IFK Göteborg

WDLWW

10Örgryte ISHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.86–0.81
11IF ElfsborgHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 2.36–1.54
03Degerfors IFAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.13–1.70
32Kalmar FFHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 2.71–0.99
20Degerfors IFHome · 2 Aug 2026
xG 2.19–1.91

How to read the Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg probabilities

Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg (Allsvenskan, 7 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Mjällby AIF win 43%. Expected goals are 1.58–1.35. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–4.

Mjällby AIF and IFK Göteborg are close on expected goals (1.58–1.35), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 356
Verdict: Slight lean · Mjällby AIF win
Kick-off: Mon 7 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg

Who is favourite for Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Mjällby AIF win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 24%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.