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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg Prediction

Slight lean

Mjällby AIF win 44%

· Strandvallen

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Mjällby AIF crestMjällby AIFvsIFK Göteborg crestIFK Göteborg
Slight lean

Mjällby AIF win44%

Both likely
Mjällby AIF win
44%
Draw
23%
IFK Göteborg win
33%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 10%

Expected goals
1.66–1.40

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
59%
BTTS
61%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Mjällby AIF win 44%, from a +90 Elo gap (1613 vs 1523).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.66-1.40.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%.
  4. 4Both teams to score at 61%.
  5. 5Timo Stavitski listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Mjällby AIF crest

1613

+90

IFK Göteborg crest

1523

Allsvenskan table
Out

Mjällby AIF crestMjällby AIF2 out

  • Timo Stavitski
  • Villum Dalsgaard

IFK Göteborg crestIFK Göteborg3 out

  • Adam Bergmark WibergSuspended
  • Arbnor Mucolli
  • Ramon Pascal Lundqvist
XI
Predicted XI
3-4-3/4-4-2
Last 5

Mjällby AIF crestMjällby AIF

LLWLL

Avg xG 1.03-2.47

IFK Göteborg crestIFK Göteborg

WDLWW

Avg xG 2.05-1.39

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal10.5%
  2. 221Prediction9.0%
  3. 3108.2%
  4. 4127.6%
  5. 5017.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Mjällby AIF versus IFK Göteborg
Mjällby AIF goals012345
04%7%5%2%
18%10%8%4%
26%9%6%3%
34%5%4%
42%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Mjällby AIF win

Mjällby AIF win: model 44%, fair 2.27, listed 2.30 (41%)

Fair

2.27

44% model

Listed

2.30

41% book

Draw

Draw: model 23%, fair 4.36, listed 3.54 (26%)

Fair

4.36

23% model

Listed

3.54

26% book

IFK Göteborg win

IFK Göteborg win: model 33%, fair 3.04, listed 2.84 (33%)

Fair

3.04

33% model

Listed

2.84

33% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 59%, fair 1.69, listed 1.71 (56%)

Fair
1.69
Listed
1.71

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 41%, fair 2.44, listed 2.20 (44%)

Fair
2.44
Listed
2.20

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 61%, fair 1.65, listed 1.55 (60%)

Fair
1.65
Listed
1.55

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 39%, fair 2.54, listed 2.32 (40%)

Fair
2.54
Listed
2.32

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Mjällby AIF crestMjällby AIF2 out

  • Timo StavitskiOutBack Injury
  • Villum DalsgaardOutUnknown

IFK Göteborg crestIFK Göteborg3 out · 1 doubtful

  • Adam Bergmark WibergSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
  • Arbnor MucolliOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Ramon Pascal LundqvistOutIllness
  • August ErlingmarkDoubtfulUnknown

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Mjällby AIF crestMjällby AIF

3-4-3

  1. 1 Sebastian Hansen · G
  2. 4 Axel Norén · D
  3. 5 Abdullah Iqbal · D
  4. 24 Tom Pettersson · D
  5. 25 Max Nielsen · D
  6. 3 Martin Agnarsson · M
  7. 6 Mads Enggård · M
  8. 7 Viktor Gustafson · M
  9. 22 Jesper Gustavsson · M
  10. 10 Jeppe Kjaer · F
  11. 18 Jacob Bergström · F

IFK Göteborg crestIFK Göteborg

4-4-2

  1. 12 Viktor Andersson · G
  2. 5 Jonas Bager · D
  3. 6 Hjörtur Hermannsson · D
  4. 18 Felix Eriksson · D
  5. 22 Noah Tolf · D
  6. 8 Sam Larsson · M
  7. 14 Tobias Heintz · M
  8. 15 David Kruse · M
  9. 24 Oliver Månsson · M
  10. 9 Max Fenger · F
  11. 47 Alexander Simmelhack · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Mjällby AIF crestMjällby AIF

LLWLL
  • 02Djurgårdens IFHome · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 1.53–2.80

  • 04Djurgårdens IFAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.05–3.00

  • 43IK SiriusHome · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.36–2.41

  • 01IF ElfsborgHome · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 1.71–3.47

  • 12Kalmar FFAway · 25 Jul 2026

    xG 0.49–0.68

IFK Göteborg crestIFK Göteborg

WDLWW
  • 10Örgryte ISHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.86–0.81

  • 11IF ElfsborgHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 2.36–1.54

  • 03Degerfors IFAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.13–1.70

  • 32Kalmar FFHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 2.71–0.99

  • 20Degerfors IFHome · 2 Aug 2026

    xG 2.19–1.91

How to read the Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg probabilities

Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg (Allsvenskan, 7 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Mjällby AIF win 44%. Expected goals are 1.66–1.40. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Mjällby AIF holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.66–1.40). That shows up as Mjällby AIF win at 44%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 59%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 61%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Mjällby AIF win
Kick-off
Mon 7 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg

Who is favourite for Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Mjällby AIF win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 23%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg?
BTTS is 61%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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