Who is favourite for Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 92%. Home 92%, draw 6%, away 2%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?

4–0 is the published prediction at 11%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 3–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 82% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?

BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna prediction

Strong favourite

Hammarby IF win 92%

Sun 13 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon · 3Arena

Published 13 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 21 · 2/4 checks hit

Hammarby IF

3–1

Hammarby IF won

IF Brommapojkarna

1X2

Hammarby IF win

92%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 4–0 · score miss · grid peak 3–0

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Hammarby IF win · 92%

Actual Hammarby IF won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 4–0

Actual 3–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Hammarby IFvsIF Brommapojkarna

Strong favourite

Hammarby IF win92%

Open game

Hammarby IF win: 92%
Draw: 6%
IF Brommapojkarna win: 2%

Prediction: 4–0
Expected goals: 3.85–0.60
Over 2.5: 82%
BTTS: 44%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Hammarby IF win 92%, from a +177 Elo gap (1647 vs 1470).
2Expected goals 3.85-0.60.
3Prediction 4–0 (11%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 3–0 at 11%.
4Over 2.5 at 82%.
5Amin Boudri listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1647
+177
1470
Allsvenskan table
Out: Hammarby IF2 out
Amin Boudri
Sourou Koné
IF Brommapojkarna1 out
Oliver Berg
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/5-4-1
Last 5: Hammarby IF
DLWWW
Avg xG 3.92-0.88
IF Brommapojkarna
WLWWD
Avg xG 1.73-1.70

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

130Modal11.2%
240Prediction10.7%
3208.7%
4508.3%
531Result6.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 4–0, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Hammarby IF versus IF Brommapojkarna
Hammarby IF goals	0	1
0
1	5%	3%
2	9%	5%
3	11%	7%
4	11%	6%
5	8%	5%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 19:12 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Hammarby IF win

Fair

1.09

92% model

Listed

1.21

81% book

Draw

Fair

17.33

6% model

Listed

7.85

12% book

IF Brommapojkarna win

Fair

40.82

2% model

Listed

15.00

7% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.22
Listed: 1.35

Under 2.5

Fair: 5.55
Listed: 3.40

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.28
Listed: 1.80

BTTS no

Fair: 1.78
Listed: 1.92

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Hammarby IF2 out

Amin BoudriOutKnee Injury
Sourou KonéOutKnee Injury

IF Brommapojkarna1 out

Oliver BergOutUnknown

XI used for this forecast (expected, 13 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Hammarby IF

IF Brommapojkarna

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Hammarby IF

4-2-3-1

IF Brommapojkarna

5-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Hammarby IF

DLWWW

11Örgryte ISAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 4.85–0.77
23AIKAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 4.61–1.82
20GAISHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 3.00–1.01
40Kalmar FFAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 3.78–0.42
30BK HäckenHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 3.37–0.37

IF Brommapojkarna

WLWWD

21IF ElfsborgHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.51–0.98
04GAISAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.13–2.99
20Degerfors IFHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 2.05–1.08
31Örgryte ISHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 3.40–1.29
22IK SiriusAway · 10 Aug 2026
xG 0.55–2.16

How to read the Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna probabilities

Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna (Allsvenskan, 13 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Hammarby IF win 92%. Expected goals are 3.85–0.60. Prediction 4–0 (11%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 3–0 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 3–1.

Hammarby IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (3.85–0.60). Hammarby IF win is 92%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 4–0 at 11%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 3–0 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 82%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 576
Verdict: Strong favourite · Hammarby IF win
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna

Who is favourite for Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 92%. Home 92%, draw 6%, away 2%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?: 4–0 is the published prediction at 11%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 3–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 82% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?: BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.