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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction

Strong favourite

Hammarby IF win 92%

· 3Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Hammarby IF crestHammarby IFvsIF Brommapojkarna crestIF Brommapojkarna
Strong favourite

Hammarby IF win92%

Open game
Hammarby IF win
92%
Draw
5%
IF Brommapojkarna win
2%
Prediction
4–0

With the 1X2 pick · 11%

Grid peak 3–0 at 11%

Expected goals
3.95–0.60

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
83%
BTTS
44%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Hammarby IF win 92%, from a +185 Elo gap (1647 vs 1462).
  2. 2Expected goals 3.95-0.60.
  3. 3Prediction 4–0 (11%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 3–0 at 11%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 83%.
  5. 5Amin Boudri listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Hammarby IF crest

1647

+185

IF Brommapojkarna crest

1462

Allsvenskan table
Out

Hammarby IF crestHammarby IF2 out

  • Amin Boudri
  • Sourou Koné

IF Brommapojkarna crestIF Brommapojkarna1 out

  • Oliver Berg
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-4-2
Last 5

Hammarby IF crestHammarby IF

DLWWW

Avg xG 3.69-0.91

IF Brommapojkarna crestIF Brommapojkarna

DLWWD

Avg xG 1.78-1.88

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 130Modal10.9%
  2. 240Prediction10.7%
  3. 3508.5%
  4. 4208.3%
  5. 5316.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 4–0, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Hammarby IF versus IF Brommapojkarna
Hammarby IF goals012345
0
14%2%
28%5%
311%7%
411%6%
58%5%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Hammarby IF win

Disagrees

Hammarby IF win: model 92%, fair 1.08, listed 1.22 (77%)

Fair

1.08

92% model

Listed

1.22

77% book

Draw

Draw: model 5%, fair 18.52, listed 6.42 (15%)

Fair

18.52

5% model

Listed

6.42

15% book

IF Brommapojkarna win

IF Brommapojkarna win: model 2%, fair 44.44, listed 11.68 (8%)

Fair

44.44

2% model

Listed

11.68

8% book

The model disagrees with the listed Hammarby IF win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 83%, fair 1.20, listed 1.38 (69%)

Fair
1.20
Listed
1.38

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 17%, fair 5.94, listed 3.10 (31%)

Fair
5.94
Listed
3.10

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 44%, fair 2.27, listed 1.80 (52%)

Fair
2.27
Listed
1.80

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 56%, fair 1.79, listed 1.92 (48%)

Fair
1.79
Listed
1.92

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Hammarby IF crestHammarby IF2 out

  • Amin BoudriOutKnee Injury
  • Sourou KonéOutKnee Injury

IF Brommapojkarna crestIF Brommapojkarna1 out

  • Oliver BergOutUnknown

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Hammarby IF crestHammarby IF

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Warner Hahn · G
  2. 2 Hampus Skoglund · D
  3. 3 Frederik Winther · D
  4. 4 Victor Eriksson · D
  5. 16 Noah Persson · D
  6. 8 Markus Karlsson · M
  7. 9 Victor Lind · M
  8. 11 Oscar Johansson Schellhas · M
  9. 26 Montader Madjed · M
  10. 28 Frank Junior Adjei · M
  11. 7 Paulos Abraham · F

IF Brommapojkarna crestIF Brommapojkarna

4-4-2

  1. 1 Leo Cavallius · G
  2. 3 Andreas Troelsen · D
  3. 4 Oskar Cotton · D
  4. 6 Oliver Zandén · D
  5. 11 Rasmus Örqvist · D
  6. 9 Mads Hansen · M
  7. 17 Anton Kurochkin · M
  8. 21 Simon Strand · M
  9. 27 Kaare Barslund · M
  10. 14 Kamilcan Sever · F
  11. 20 Wilmer Odefalk · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Hammarby IF crestHammarby IF

DLWWW
  • 11Örgryte ISAway · 6 Sept 2026
  • 23AIKAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 4.61–1.82

  • 20GAISHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 3.00–1.01

  • 40Kalmar FFAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 3.78–0.42

  • 30BK HäckenHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 3.37–0.37

IF Brommapojkarna crestIF Brommapojkarna

DLWWD
  • 11IF ElfsborgHome · 6 Sept 2026
  • 04GAISAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.13–2.99

  • 20Degerfors IFHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 2.05–1.08

  • 31Örgryte ISHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 3.40–1.29

  • 22IK SiriusAway · 10 Aug 2026

    xG 0.55–2.16

How to read the Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna probabilities

Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna (Allsvenskan, 13 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Hammarby IF win 92%. Expected goals are 3.95–0.60. Prediction 4–0 (11%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 3–0 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Hammarby IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (3.95–0.60). Hammarby IF win is 92%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 4–0 at 11%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 3–0 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 83%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Hammarby IF win
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna

Who is favourite for Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 92%. Home 92%, draw 5%, away 2%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
4–0 is the published prediction at 11%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 3–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 83% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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