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Allsvenskan · Round 24 · 2026/27

IK Sirius vs IF Elfsborg prediction

Slight lean

IK Sirius win 44%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

IK SiriusvsIF Elfsborg
Slight lean

IK Sirius win44%

IK Sirius win
44%
Draw
24%
IF Elfsborg win
32%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.57–1.30

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
55%
BTTS
57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over78%
Under22%
2.5 goals
Over55%
Under45%
3.5 goals
Over33%
Under67%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: IK Sirius win 44%, from a +31 Elo gap (1600 vs 1568).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.57-1.30.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.

Match briefing

Elo

1600

+31

1568

Allsvenskan table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

IK Sirius

WWWLL

Avg xG 1.24-1.42

IF Elfsborg

WWLWD

Avg xG 1.61-1.48

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.2%
  2. 2109.2%
  3. 321Prediction9.1%
  4. 4017.6%
  5. 5127.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for IK Sirius versus IF Elfsborg
IK Sirius goals012345
05%8%5%2%
19%11%8%3%
27%9%6%3%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

IK Sirius win

IK Sirius win: model 44%, fair 2.27, listed 2.26 (44%)

Fair

2.27

44% model

Listed

2.26

44% book

Draw

Draw: model 24%, fair 4.17, listed 3.70 (27%)

Fair

4.17

24% model

Listed

3.70

27% book

IF Elfsborg win

IF Elfsborg win: model 32%, fair 3.13, listed 3.40 (29%)

Fair

3.13

32% model

Listed

3.40

29% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 55%, fair 1.82, listed 1.76 (55%)

Fair
1.82
Listed
1.76

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 45%, fair 2.22, listed 2.11 (45%)

Fair
2.22
Listed
2.11

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 57%, fair 1.74, listed 1.58 (59%)

Fair
1.74
Listed
1.58

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 43%, fair 2.35, listed 2.28 (41%)

Fair
2.35
Listed
2.28

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

IK Sirius

  1. 34 David Celic · G
  2. 2 Mohamed Soumah · D
  3. 4 Tobias Anker · D
  4. 5 Henrik Castegren · D
  5. 22 Oscar Krusnell · D
  6. 6 Marcus Lindberg · M
  7. 10 Melker Heier · M
  8. 24 Victor Svensson · M
  9. 9 Jesper Uneken · F
  10. 11 Isak Bjerkebo · F
  11. 30 Zalán Vancsa · F

IF Elfsborg

  1. 31 Isak Pettersson · G
  2. 4 Thomas Isherwood · D
  3. 6 Rasmus Wikström · D
  4. 16 Alexander Jensen · D
  5. 23 Niklas Hult · D
  6. 9 Arbër Zeneli · M
  7. 10 Simon Olsson · M
  8. 18 Julius Magnusson · M
  9. 19 Julius Beck · M
  10. 29 Momoh Ibrahim Kamara · M
  11. 21 Leo Östman · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IK Sirius

WWWLL
  • 21Örgryte ISAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.16–1.18

  • 20Degerfors IFHome · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 1.91–1.72

  • 10Västerås SKAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.99–0.98

  • 01Malmö FFHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.51–1.67

  • 03BK HäckenHome · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 0.64–1.54

IF Elfsborg

WWLWD
  • 21Djurgårdens IFAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.68–1.40

  • 10Kalmar FFHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 2.47–1.98

  • 12IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 0.98–1.51

  • 20Degerfors IFHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.40–0.16

  • 11IFK GöteborgAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.54–2.36

How to read the IK Sirius vs IF Elfsborg probabilities

IK Sirius vs IF Elfsborg (Allsvenskan, 18 Oct 2026): Slight lean. IK Sirius win 44%. Expected goals are 1.57–1.30. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

IK Sirius holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.57–1.30). That shows up as IK Sirius win at 44%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 55%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · IK Sirius win
Kick-off
Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about IK Sirius vs IF Elfsborg

Who is favourite for IK Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 24%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IK Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will IK Sirius vs IF Elfsborg go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IK Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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