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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS Prediction

Strong favourite

Malmö FF win 73%

· Eleda Stadium

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Malmö FF crestMalmö FFvsÖrgryte IS crestÖrgryte IS
Strong favourite

Malmö FF win73%

Open game
Malmö FF win
73%
Draw
15%
Örgryte IS win
11%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 2–0 at 10%

Expected goals
2.61–0.94

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
69%
BTTS
56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Malmö FF win 73%, from a +199 Elo gap (1613 vs 1414).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.61-0.94.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 10%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 69%.
  5. 5Anders Christiansen listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Malmö FF crest

1613

+199

Örgryte IS crest

1414

Allsvenskan table
Out

Malmö FF crestMalmö FF3 out

  • Anders Christiansen
  • Emmanuel Ekong
  • Oscar Sjostrand

Örgryte IS crestÖrgryte IS3 out

  • Aydarus Abukar
  • Rasmus Alm
  • William Svensson
XI
Last league XI
4-1-3-2/3-4-3
Last 5

Malmö FF crestMalmö FF

WLWLW

Avg xG 1.77-1.39

Örgryte IS crestÖrgryte IS

DLDLL

Avg xG 1.65-2.47

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Modal9.8%
  2. 221Prediction9.2%
  3. 3308.5%
  4. 4318.0%
  5. 5107.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Malmö FF versus Örgryte IS
Malmö FF goals012345
03%3%
18%7%3%
210%9%4%
39%8%4%
46%5%2%
53%3%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Malmö FF crestMalmö FF3 out

  • Anders ChristiansenOutLeg Injury
  • Emmanuel EkongOutKnee Surgery
  • Oscar SjostrandOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Örgryte IS crestÖrgryte IS3 out

  • Aydarus AbukarOutKnee Surgery
  • Rasmus AlmOutUnknown
  • William SvenssonOutFoot Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Malmö FF crestMalmö FF

4-1-3-2

  1. 1 Robin Olsen · G
  2. 2 Stian Gregersen · D
  3. 5 Andrej Đurić · D
  4. 17 Jens Stryger Larsen · D
  5. 25 Busanello · D
  6. 28 Jovan Milosavljević · M
  7. 37 Adrian Skogmar · M
  8. 45 Anton Höög · M
  9. 47 Theodor Lundbergh · M
  10. 9 Diego García · F
  11. 29 Sead Hakšabanović · F

Örgryte IS crestÖrgryte IS

3-4-3

  1. 44 Hampus Gustafsson · G
  2. 5 Christoffer Styffe · D
  3. 25 Johan Hammar · D
  4. 33 Sebastian Lagerlund · D
  5. 8 Benjamin Laturnus · M
  6. 18 Adam Andersson · M
  7. 19 Anton Andreasson · M
  8. 23 Owen Parker-Price · M
  9. 14 Daniel Paulson · F
  10. 17 William Hofvander · F
  11. 22 Tobias Sana · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Malmö FF crestMalmö FF

WLWLW
  • 10IK SiriusAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.67–1.51

  • 03Djurgårdens IFHome · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.09–1.65

  • 10GAISAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.38–1.29

  • 12Degerfors IFHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 2.49–0.70

  • 21IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 2 Aug 2026

    xG 3.22–1.78

Örgryte IS crestÖrgryte IS

DLDLL
  • 11Hammarby IFHome · 6 Sept 2026
  • 01IFK GöteborgAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.81–1.86

  • 11Halmstads BKHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 2.09–2.67

  • 13IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.29–3.40

  • 34AIKHome · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 2.39–1.96

How to read the Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS probabilities

Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS (Allsvenskan, 13 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Malmö FF win 73%. Expected goals are 2.61–0.94. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Malmö FF is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.61–0.94). Malmö FF win is 73%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 69%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Malmö FF win
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS

Who is favourite for Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 73%. Home 73%, draw 15%, away 11%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 69% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?
BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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