Who is favourite for Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 74%. Home 74%, draw 15%, away 11%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 68% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?

BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS prediction

Strong favourite

Malmö FF win 74%

Sun 13 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon · Eleda Stadium

Published 13 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 21 · 3/4 checks hit

Malmö FF

4–1

Malmö FF won

Örgryte IS

1X2

Malmö FF win

74%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 2–0

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Malmö FF win · 74%

Actual Malmö FF won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 4–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Malmö FFvsÖrgryte IS

Strong favourite

Malmö FF win74%

Open game

Malmö FF win: 74%
Draw: 15%
Örgryte IS win: 11%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 2.60–0.89
Over 2.5: 68%
BTTS: 54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Malmö FF win 74%, from a +197 Elo gap (1611 vs 1414).
2Expected goals 2.60-0.89.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 10%.
4Over 2.5 at 68%.
5Sead Hakšabanović suspended and 6 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1611
+197
1414
Allsvenskan table
Out: Malmö FF4 out
Sead HakšabanovićSuspended
Anders Christiansen
Emmanuel Ekong
+1 more
Örgryte IS3 out
Aydarus Abukar
Rasmus Alm
William Svensson
XI: Expected XI
4 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/5-4-1
Last 5: Malmö FF
DWLWL
Avg xG 1.41-1.17
Örgryte IS
DLDLL
Avg xG 1.47-2.95

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

120Modal10.3%
221Prediction9.2%
3308.9%
4108.1%
5318.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Malmö FF versus Örgryte IS
Malmö FF goals	0	1	2
0	3%	3%
1	8%	7%	3%
2	10%	9%	4%
3	9%	8%	4%
4	6%	5%	2%
5	3%	3%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 20:47 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Malmö FF win

Fair

1.35

74% model

Listed

1.44

69% book

Draw

Fair

6.62

15% model

Listed

5.40

18% book

Örgryte IS win

Fair

9.31

11% model

Listed

8.00

12% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.48
Listed: 1.52

Under 2.5

Fair: 3.10
Listed: 2.60

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.84
Listed: 1.68

BTTS no

Fair: 2.20
Listed: 2.05

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Malmö FF4 out

Sead HakšabanovićSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
Anders ChristiansenOutLeg Injury
Emmanuel EkongOutKnee Surgery
Oscar SjostrandOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Örgryte IS3 out

Aydarus AbukarOutKnee Surgery
Rasmus AlmOutUnknown
William SvenssonOutFoot Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 13 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Malmö FF

Örgryte IS

Confirmed XIConfirmed4 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Malmö FF

4-4-2

Örgryte IS

5-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Malmö FF

DWLWL

00AIKHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.40–0.68
10IK SiriusAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.67–1.51
03Djurgårdens IFHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.09–1.65
10GAISAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.38–1.29
12Degerfors IFHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 2.49–0.70

Örgryte IS

DLDLL

11Hammarby IFHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.77–4.85
01IFK GöteborgAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.81–1.86
11Halmstads BKHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 2.09–2.67
13IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.29–3.40
34AIKHome · 8 Aug 2026
xG 2.39–1.96

How to read the Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS probabilities

Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS (Allsvenskan, 13 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Malmö FF win 74%. Expected goals are 2.60–0.89. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 4–1.

Malmö FF is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.60–0.89). Malmö FF win is 74%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 68%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Strong favourite · Malmö FF win
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS

Who is favourite for Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 74%. Home 74%, draw 15%, away 11%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 68% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?: BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.