Who is favourite for Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 61%. Home 17%, draw 21%, away 61%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2627.0

Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius prediction

Clear lean

IK Sirius win 61%

Sat 19 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon · Gamla Ullevi

Published 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 22 · 4/4 checks hit

Örgryte IS

1–2

IK Sirius won

IK Sirius

1X2

IK Sirius win

61%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 1–2 · score hit · grid peak 0–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted IK Sirius win · 61%

Actual IK Sirius won

Prediction

Hit

Predicted 1–2

Actual 1–2

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Örgryte ISvsIK Sirius

Clear lean

IK Sirius win61%

Örgryte IS win: 17%
Draw: 21%
IK Sirius win: 61%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 0.92–1.94
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: IK Sirius win 61%, from a -184 Elo gap (1411 vs 1594).
2Expected goals 0.92-1.94.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 11%.
4Aydarus Abukar listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1411
-184
1594
Allsvenskan table
Out: Örgryte IS5 out
Aydarus Abukar
Rasmus Alm
William Svensson
+2 more
IK Sirius1 out
Matthias Nartey
XI: Expected XI
4 changes from the expected XI
5-4-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Örgryte IS
LDLDL
Avg xG 1.25-3.23
IK Sirius
WWLLL
Avg xG 1.49-1.45

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

101Modal11.2%
20210.8%
31110.2%
412PredictionResult9.9%
5037.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Örgryte IS versus IK Sirius
Örgryte IS goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	6%	11%	11%	7%	3%
1	5%	10%	10%	6%	3%
2	2%	5%	5%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 06:47 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Örgryte IS win

Fair

5.78

17% model

Listed

6.75

14% book

Draw

Fair

4.66

21% model

Listed

5.00

19% book

IK Sirius win

Fair

1.63

61% model

Listed

1.47

66% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.84
Listed: 1.45

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.20
Listed: 2.75

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.94
Listed: 1.58

BTTS no

Fair: 2.06
Listed: 2.25

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Örgryte IS5 out

Aydarus AbukarOutKnee Surgery
Rasmus AlmOutUnknown
William SvenssonOutFoot Injury
Jerome Tibbling UgwoOutMuscle Injury
Viktor EkblomOutThigh Injury

IK Sirius1 out

Matthias NarteyOutUnknown

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Örgryte IS

IK Sirius

Confirmed XIConfirmed4 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Örgryte IS

5-4-1

IK Sirius

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Örgryte IS

LDLDL

14Malmö FFAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.31–3.36
11Hammarby IFHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.77–4.85
01IFK GöteborgAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.81–1.86
11Halmstads BKHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 2.09–2.67
13IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.29–3.40

IK Sirius

WWLLL

20Degerfors IFHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.91–1.72
10Västerås SKAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.99–0.98
01Malmö FFHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.51–1.67
03BK HäckenHome · 21 Aug 2026
xG 0.64–1.54
34Mjällby AIFAway · 15 Aug 2026
xG 2.41–1.36

How to read the Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius probabilities

Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius (Allsvenskan, 19 Sept 2026): Clear lean. IK Sirius win 61%. Expected goals are 0.92–1.94. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–2.

IK Sirius is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.92–1.94). IK Sirius win is 61%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · IK Sirius win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius

Who is favourite for Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 61%. Home 17%, draw 21%, away 61%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius?: BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.