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Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2026/27

Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius prediction

Clear lean

IK Sirius win 59%

· Gamla Ullevi

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Örgryte ISvsIK Sirius
Clear lean

IK Sirius win59%

Örgryte IS win
19%
Draw
22%
IK Sirius win
59%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 0–1 at 12%

Expected goals
0.93–1.86

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
53%
BTTS
51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: IK Sirius win 59%, from a -180 Elo gap (1411 vs 1591).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.93-1.86.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Aydarus Abukar listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1411

-180

1591

Allsvenskan table
Out

Örgryte IS3 out

  • Aydarus Abukar
  • Rasmus Alm
  • William Svensson

IK Sirius1 out

  • Matthias Nartey
XI
Last league XI
5-4-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Örgryte IS

LDLDL

Avg xG 1.40-2.64

IK Sirius

WLLLD

Avg xG 1.54-1.22

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 101Modal11.6%
  2. 20210.6%
  3. 31110.5%
  4. 412Prediction9.9%
  5. 5036.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Örgryte IS versus IK Sirius
Örgryte IS goals012345
06%12%11%7%3%
16%10%10%6%3%
23%5%5%3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Örgryte IS win

Örgryte IS win: model 19%, fair 5.36, listed 5.89 (16%)

Fair

5.36

19% model

Listed

5.89

16% book

Draw

Draw: model 22%, fair 4.54, listed 4.75 (20%)

Fair

4.54

22% model

Listed

4.75

20% book

IK Sirius win

IK Sirius win: model 59%, fair 1.69, listed 1.46 (64%)

Fair

1.69

59% model

Listed

1.46

64% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 53%, fair 1.90, listed 1.48 (64%)

Fair
1.90
Listed
1.48

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 47%, fair 2.12, listed 2.65 (36%)

Fair
2.12
Listed
2.65

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 51%, fair 1.96, listed 1.60 (58%)

Fair
1.96
Listed
1.60

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 49%, fair 2.04, listed 2.18 (42%)

Fair
2.04
Listed
2.18

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Örgryte IS3 out

  • Aydarus AbukarOutKnee Surgery
  • Rasmus AlmOutUnknown
  • William SvenssonOutFoot Injury

IK Sirius1 out

  • Matthias NarteyOutUnknown

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Örgryte IS

5-4-1

  1. 44 Hampus Gustafsson · G
  2. 5 Christoffer Styffe · D
  3. 6 Mikael Dyrestam · D
  4. 14 Daniel Paulson · D
  5. 18 Adam Andersson · D
  6. 33 Sebastian Lagerlund · D
  7. 8 Benjamin Laturnus · M
  8. 17 William Hofvander · M
  9. 22 Tobias Sana · M
  10. 23 Owen Parker-Price · M
  11. 32 Viktor Ekblom · F

IK Sirius

4-2-3-1

  1. 34 David Celic · G
  2. 4 Tobias Anker · D
  3. 5 Henrik Castegren · D
  4. 15 Simon Sandberg · D
  5. 22 Oscar Krusnell · D
  6. 6 Marcus Lindberg · M
  7. 10 Melker Heier · M
  8. 11 Isak Bjerkebo · M
  9. 24 Victor Svensson · M
  10. 30 Zalán Vancsa · M
  11. 9 Jesper Uneken · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Örgryte IS

LDLDL
  • 14Malmö FFAway · 13 Sept 2026
  • 11Hammarby IFHome · 6 Sept 2026
  • 01IFK GöteborgAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.81–1.86

  • 11Halmstads BKHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 2.09–2.67

  • 13IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.29–3.40

IK Sirius

WLLLD
  • 10Västerås SKAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.99–0.98

  • 01Malmö FFHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.51–1.67

  • 03BK HäckenHome · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 0.64–1.54

  • 34Mjällby AIFAway · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 2.41–1.36

  • 22IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 10 Aug 2026

    xG 2.16–0.55

How to read the Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius probabilities

Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius (Allsvenskan, 19 Sept 2026): Clear lean. IK Sirius win 59%. Expected goals are 0.93–1.86. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

IK Sirius is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.93–1.86). IK Sirius win is 59%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · IK Sirius win
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius

Who is favourite for Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 59%. Home 19%, draw 22%, away 59%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius?
1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius?
BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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