Who is favourite for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 68%. Home 14%, draw 18%, away 68%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 64% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2627.0

Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF prediction

Clear lean

Hammarby IF win 68%

Sun 20 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon · Stora Valla

Published 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 22 · 1/4 checks hit

Degerfors IF

0–1

Hammarby IF won

Hammarby IF

1X2

Hammarby IF win

68%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 0–2

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Hammarby IF win · 68%

Actual Hammarby IF won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 0–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Degerfors IFvsHammarby IF

Clear lean

Hammarby IF win68%

Open game

Degerfors IF win: 14%
Draw: 18%
Hammarby IF win: 68%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 0.95–2.33
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Hammarby IF win 68%, from a -223 Elo gap (1427 vs 1650).
2Expected goals 0.95-2.33.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 10%.
4Over 2.5 at 64%.
5Juhani Pikkarainen listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1427
-223
1650
Allsvenskan table
Out: Degerfors IF2 out
Juhani Pikkarainen
Kazper Karlsson
Hammarby IF1 out
Sourou Koné
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
5-3-2/4-1-4-1
Last 5: Degerfors IF
LWLLW
Avg xG 1.50-1.46
Hammarby IF
WDLWW
Avg xG 3.65-1.00

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

102Modal10.2%
212Prediction9.7%
301Result9.0%
4118.1%
5037.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Degerfors IF versus Hammarby IF
Degerfors IF goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	9%	10%	8%	5%	2%
1	4%	8%	10%	8%	4%	2%
2		4%	5%	4%	2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 06:47 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Degerfors IF win

Fair

7.11

14% model

Listed

10.50

9% book

Draw

Fair

5.69

18% model

Listed

5.80

17% book

Hammarby IF win

Fair

1.46

68% model

Listed

1.35

73% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.57
Listed: 1.53

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.75
Listed: 2.52

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.81
Listed: 1.80

BTTS no

Fair: 2.23
Listed: 1.92

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Degerfors IF2 out

Juhani PikkarainenOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Kazper KarlssonOutUnknown

Hammarby IF1 out

Sourou KonéOutKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Degerfors IF

Hammarby IF

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Degerfors IF

5-3-2

Hammarby IF

4-1-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Degerfors IF

LWLLW

02IK SiriusAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.72–1.91
20Halmstads BKHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.83–0.80
02IF ElfsborgAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.16–1.40
02IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.08–2.05
30IFK GöteborgHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.70–1.13

Hammarby IF

WDLWW

31IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.02–1.00
11Örgryte ISAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 4.85–0.77
23AIKAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 4.61–1.82
20GAISHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 3.00–1.01
40Kalmar FFAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 3.78–0.42

How to read the Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF probabilities

Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF (Allsvenskan, 20 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Hammarby IF win 68%. Expected goals are 0.95–2.33. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–1.

Hammarby IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.95–2.33). Hammarby IF win is 68%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–2 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 64%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 55%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Hammarby IF win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF

Who is favourite for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 68%. Home 14%, draw 18%, away 68%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 64% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.