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Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2026/27

Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF prediction

Clear lean

Hammarby IF win 69%

· Stora Valla

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Degerfors IFvsHammarby IF
Clear lean

Hammarby IF win69%

Open game
Degerfors IF win
13%
Draw
17%
Hammarby IF win
69%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 0–2 at 10%

Expected goals
0.92–2.35

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
63%
BTTS
54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Hammarby IF win 69%, from a -220 Elo gap (1430 vs 1650).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.92-2.35.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 10%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 63%.
  5. 5Juhani Pikkarainen listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1430

-220

1650

Allsvenskan table
Out

Degerfors IF1 out

  • Juhani Pikkarainen

Hammarby IF2 out

  • Amin Boudri
  • Sourou Koné
XI
Last league XI
4-4-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Degerfors IF

WLLWW

Avg xG 1.29-1.57

Hammarby IF

WDLWW

Avg xG 3.80-1.08

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 102Modal10.5%
  2. 212Prediction9.7%
  3. 3019.1%
  4. 4038.2%
  5. 5118.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Degerfors IF versus Hammarby IF
Degerfors IF goals012345
04%9%10%8%5%2%
14%8%10%8%4%2%
24%4%3%2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Degerfors IF win

Degerfors IF win: model 13%, fair 7.54, listed 9.03 (10%)

Fair

7.54

13% model

Listed

9.03

10% book

Draw

Draw: model 17%, fair 5.73, listed 5.22 (18%)

Fair

5.73

17% model

Listed

5.22

18% book

Hammarby IF win

Hammarby IF win: model 69%, fair 1.44, listed 1.32 (71%)

Fair

1.44

69% model

Listed

1.32

71% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 63%, fair 1.58, listed 1.53 (63%)

Fair
1.58
Listed
1.53

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 37%, fair 2.73, listed 2.60 (37%)

Fair
2.73
Listed
2.60

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 54%, fair 1.84, listed 1.80 (51%)

Fair
1.84
Listed
1.80

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 46%, fair 2.19, listed 1.87 (49%)

Fair
2.19
Listed
1.87

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Degerfors IF1 out

  • Juhani PikkarainenOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Hammarby IF2 out

  • Amin BoudriOutKnee Injury
  • Sourou KonéOutKnee Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Degerfors IF

4-4-2

  1. 38 Matvei Igonen · G
  2. 2 Ahmad Faqa · D
  3. 3 Nikolai Skuseth · D
  4. 6 Daniel Sundgren · D
  5. 16 Sebastian Ohlsson · D
  6. 4 Kazper Karlsson · M
  7. 8 Bilal Hussein · M
  8. 10 Noel Milleskog · M
  9. 17 Arman Taranis · M
  10. 9 Karim Boutera · F
  11. 11 Dijan Vukojevic · F

Hammarby IF

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Warner Hahn · G
  2. 2 Hampus Skoglund · D
  3. 3 Frederik Winther · D
  4. 6 Ibrahima Fofana · D
  5. 16 Noah Persson · D
  6. 8 Markus Karlsson · M
  7. 9 Victor Lind · M
  8. 26 Montader Madjed · M
  9. 28 Frank Junior Adjei · M
  10. 31 Oscar Steinke Brånby · M
  11. 7 Paulos Abraham · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Degerfors IF

WLLWW
  • 20Halmstads BKHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.83–0.80

  • 02IF ElfsborgAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.16–1.40

  • 02IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.08–2.05

  • 30IFK GöteborgHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.70–1.13

  • 21Malmö FFAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 0.70–2.49

Hammarby IF

WDLWW
  • 31IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 13 Sept 2026
  • 11Örgryte ISAway · 6 Sept 2026
  • 23AIKAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 4.61–1.82

  • 20GAISHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 3.00–1.01

  • 40Kalmar FFAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 3.78–0.42

How to read the Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF probabilities

Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF (Allsvenskan, 20 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Hammarby IF win 69%. Expected goals are 0.92–2.35. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Hammarby IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.92–2.35). Hammarby IF win is 69%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–2 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 63%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Hammarby IF win
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF

Who is favourite for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 69%. Home 13%, draw 17%, away 69%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?
1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 63% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?
BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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