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E90

Ligue 1 model performance

Ligue 1 has no scored forecasts in the public ledger yet. Frozen walk-forward ECE is 0.0246 on 917 matches (log loss 0.9982). Live Ligue 1 results will appear here round by round once matches are joined.

France. Model l1-v1.1.0-elo. Ledger updated 11 Sept 2026, 11:39 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Ligue 1 reliability

When the model assigned the favourite 70%, those matches should be won about 70% of the time. Closer to the diagonal is better.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 36% (137 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 43% (328 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 53% (248 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 67% (132 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 78% (49 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 74% (19 matches)90–100%: predicted 91%, happened 75% (4 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Ligue 1: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0246 on 917 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0246. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 78% of 49 matches.

ECE
0.0246
Log loss
0.9982
RPS
0.2084
Walk-forward
917
1X2 accuracy
51%
Goal MAE
0.96
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%36%137−2%
40–50%45%43%328−2%
50–60%55%53%248−2%
60–70%64%67%132+3%
70–80%74%78%49+3%
80–90%84%74%19−10%
90–100%91%75%4−16%

Ligue 1 live sample

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
0
Favourite-correct
—
Prediction hits
—

No scored matches for this view yet. Upcoming fixtures stay on the predictions pages until kick-off.

Ligue 1 predictions

Ligue 1 performance questions

What does the Ligue 1 calibration diagram show?
Each point is a favourite-probability bin from 917 walk-forward matches. Horizontal is what the model assigned; vertical is how often that favourite won. Closer to the diagonal is better. ECE 0.0246 is the average gap.
Can I check Ligue 1 results by round?
Round pages appear after Ligue 1 matches are scored in the public ledger.
How should I read live Ligue 1 favourite-correct?
Treat it as a noisy extra. Frozen walk-forward log loss is 0.9982 and favourite 1X2 accuracy is 51%. A short live slice can look much worse or better.

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1

Live season 2026/27

Matches scored
0
Log loss
—
RPS
—
Goal MAE
—
1X2 accuracy
—

No completed 2026/27 matches scored yet.