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E90

Ligue 1 model performance

Ligue 1 frozen walk-forward: ECE 0.0246, log loss 0.9982 on 917 matches. Live 2026/27 sample: 30 scored matches, favourite-correct 57%, prediction hits 5. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.

France. Model l1-v1.1.0-elo. Ledger updated 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Ligue 1 reliability

When the model assigned the favourite 70%, those matches should be won about 70% of the time. Closer to the diagonal is better.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 36% (137 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 43% (328 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 53% (248 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 67% (132 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 78% (49 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 74% (19 matches)90–100%: predicted 91%, happened 75% (4 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Ligue 1: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0246 on 917 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0246. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 78% of 49 matches.

ECE
0.0246
Log loss
0.9982
RPS
0.2084
Walk-forward
917
1X2 accuracy
51%
Goal MAE
0.96
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%36%137−2%
40–50%45%43%328−2%
50–60%55%53%248−2%
60–70%64%67%132+3%
70–80%74%78%49+3%
80–90%84%74%19−10%
90–100%91%75%4−16%
Jump to roundAll4578

Round ledgers: Round 4 · Round 5 · Round 7 · Round 8

Ligue 1 live sample

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
30
Favourite-correct
57%
Prediction hits
5
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
AS Monaco vs Lille81–12–1MissAS Monaco win · 40%MissOverMissYesHit
RC Lens vs Paris FC82–12–1HitRC Lens win · 54%HitOverHitYesHit
Stade Brestois vs Nice81–22–1MissStade Brestois win · 48%MissOverHitYesHit
Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice72–12–1HitOlympique Lyonnais win · 54%HitOverHitYesHit
Le Havre vs Auxerre71–32–1MissLe Havre win · 50%MissUnderMissNoMiss
Lorient vs AS Monaco71–01–2MissAS Monaco win · 44%MissOverMissYesMiss
Paris FC vs Stade Rennais74–32–1MissParis FC win · 41%HitOverHitYesHit
Angers vs Olympique de Marseille72–51–2MissOlympique de Marseille win · 43%HitOverHitYesHit
Lille vs Stade Brestois71–12–1MissLille win · 55%MissOverMissYesHit
Troyes vs RC Lens71–31–1MissRC Lens win · 39%HitUnderMissYesHit
RC Strasbourg vs Paris Saint-Germain71–31–2MissParis Saint-Germain win · 60%HitOverHitYesHit
Le Mans vs Toulouse70–31–2MissToulouse win · 43%HitOverHitYesMiss
Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain51–21–2HitParis Saint-Germain win · 48%HitOverHitYesHit
Nice vs Lille52–11–2MissLille win · 51%MissOverHitYesHit
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois52–11–1MissStade Brestois win · 38%MissOverHitYesHit
Angers vs Troyes52–02–1MissAngers win · 46%HitUnderHitYesMiss
Le Mans vs Lorient52–11–2MissLorient win · 45%MissOverHitYesHit
Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais54–02–1MissOlympique Lyonnais win · 41%HitOverHitYesMiss
Toulouse vs Le Havre53–22–1MissToulouse win · 46%HitUnderMissYesHit
Paris FC vs RC Strasbourg52–12–1HitParis FC win · 42%HitOverHitYesHit
AS Monaco vs RC Lens52–12–1HitAS Monaco win · 39%HitOverHitYesHit
Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain40–11–2MissParis Saint-Germain win · 55%HitOverMissYesMiss
Le Mans vs RC Lens42–21–2MissRC Lens win · 63%MissOverHitYesHit
Lille vs Troyes42–02–1MissLille win · 62%HitOverMissYesMiss
Auxerre vs Nice41–02–1MissAuxerre win · 42%HitOverMissYesMiss
Le Havre vs Angers40–02–1MissLe Havre win · 42%MissUnderHitYesMiss
Lorient vs Toulouse42–22–1MissLorient win · 40%MissUnderMissYesHit
Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais40–01–2MissOlympique Lyonnais win · 42%MissOverMissYesMiss
RC Strasbourg vs AS Monaco41–12–1MissRC Strasbourg win · 47%MissOverMissYesHit
Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille41–02–1MissStade Rennais win · 44%HitOverMissYesMiss

Ligue 1 predictions

Ligue 1 performance questions

What does the Ligue 1 calibration diagram show?
Each point is a favourite-probability bin from 917 walk-forward matches. Horizontal is what the model assigned; vertical is how often that favourite won. Closer to the diagonal is better. ECE 0.0246 is the average gap.
Can I check Ligue 1 results by round?
Yes. Open a round page for the predicted vs actual table. Scored rounds: 4, 5, 7, 8.
How should I read live Ligue 1 favourite-correct?
Treat it as a noisy extra. Frozen walk-forward log loss is 0.9982 and favourite 1X2 accuracy is 51%. A short live slice can look much worse or better.

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1

Live season 2026/27 · round 8

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
30 · 30
Log loss
1.0210·0.9257

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0952

RPS
0.2142·0.1849

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0293

Brier
0.6107·0.5434

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0673

Goal MAE
0.88
1X2 accuracy
57%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.530 · 300.6946·0.6587Δ +0.03590.2503·0.232857%Model · Closing line
Under 2.530 · 300.6946·0.6587Δ +0.03590.2503·0.232857%Model · Closing line
BTTS30 · 300.6614·0.6381Δ +0.02340.2340·0.222663%Model · Closing line

Frozen walk-forward goals markets

Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rate
Over 2.59170.69330.249753%
Under 2.59170.69330.249753%
BTTS9170.69370.250252%

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.