Who is favourite for Le Havre vs Angers?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Le Havre win at 42%. Home 42%, draw 26%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Le Havre vs Angers?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Le Havre vs Angers go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Le Havre vs Angers?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 4 · 2627.0

Le Havre vs Angers prediction

Slight lean

Le Havre win 42%

Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon · Stade Oceane

Published 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 1/4 checks hit

Le Havre

0–0

Draw

Angers

1X2

Le Havre win

42%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Le Havre win · 42%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Le HavrevsAngers

Slight lean

Le Havre win42%

Le Havre win: 42%
Draw: 26%
Angers win: 32%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.42–1.21
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Le Havre win 42%, from a +20 Elo gap (1436 vs 1416).
2Expected goals 1.42-1.21.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Junior Mwanga suspended and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1436
+20
1416
Ligue 1 table
Out: Le Havre3 out
Junior MwangaSuspended
Felix Mambimbi
Lionel Mpasi Nzau
Angers1 out
Haris Belkebla
XI: Expected XI
13 changes from the expected XI
4-3-3/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Le Havre
LDLWL
Avg xG 1.15-1.64
Angers
LWLDD
Avg xG 1.29-1.64

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.5%
21010.2%
321Prediction8.8%
4018.6%
5127.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Le Havre versus Angers
Le Havre goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	9%	5%	2%
1	10%	12%	7%	3%
2	7%	9%	5%	2%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:10 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Le Havre win

Disagrees

Fair

2.39

42% model

Listed

2.70

37% book

Draw

Fair

3.82

26% model

Listed

3.45

29% book

Angers win

Fair

3.13

32% model

Listed

2.88

34% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Le Havre win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.05
Listed: 2.00

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.96
Listed: 1.98

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.88
Listed: 1.68

BTTS no

Fair: 2.14
Listed: 2.12

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Le Havre3 out

Junior MwangaSuspendedred card suspension
Felix MambimbiOutAchilles Tendon Injury
Lionel Mpasi NzauOutAchilles Tendon Injury

Angers1 out

Haris BelkeblaOutThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Le Havre

Angers

Confirmed XIConfirmed13 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Le Havre

4-3-3

Angers

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Le Havre

LDLWL

12Stade BrestoisHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.02–2.37
11Olympique LyonnaisAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.69–1.75
01AS MonacoHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.64–1.59
20LorientAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.25–1.30
01Olympique de MarseilleHome · 10 May 2026
xG 1.14–1.21

Angers

LWLDD

12Stade RennaisHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.66–1.54
31AuxerreAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.55–1.81
02LilleHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.99–1.24
11Stade BrestoisAway · 17 May 2026
xG 0.68–1.57
11RC StrasbourgHome · 10 May 2026
xG 0.59–2.02

How to read the Le Havre vs Angers probabilities

Le Havre vs Angers (Ligue 1, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Le Havre win 42%. Expected goals are 1.42–1.21. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Le Havre and Angers are close on expected goals (1.42–1.21), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Le Havre win
Kick-off: Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Le Havre vs Angers

Who is favourite for Le Havre vs Angers?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Le Havre win at 42%. Home 42%, draw 26%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Le Havre vs Angers?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Le Havre vs Angers go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Le Havre vs Angers?: BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.