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Ligue 1 · Round 4 · 2026/27

Le Havre vs Angers prediction

Slight lean

Le Havre win 42%

· Stade Oceane

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Le HavrevsAngers
Slight lean

Le Havre win42%

Le Havre win
42%
Draw
26%
Angers win
32%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.44–1.22

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Le Havre win 42%, from a +20 Elo gap (1436 vs 1416).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.44-1.22.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Junior Mwanga suspended and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1436

+20

1416

Ligue 1 table
Out

Le Havre3 out

  • Junior MwangaSuspended
  • Felix Mambimbi
  • Lionel Mpasi Nzau

Angers1 out

  • Haris Belkebla
XI
Predicted XI
3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Le Havre

LDLWL

Avg xG 1.15-1.64

Angers

LWLDD

Avg xG 1.29-1.64

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.2%
  2. 21010.2%
  3. 321Prediction8.8%
  4. 4018.7%
  5. 5127.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Le Havre versus Angers
Le Havre goals012345
07%9%5%2%
110%12%8%3%
27%9%5%2%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Le Havre win

Disagrees

Le Havre win: model 42%, fair 2.37, listed 2.50 (37%)

Fair

2.37

42% model

Listed

2.50

37% book

Draw

Draw: model 26%, fair 3.90, listed 3.15 (29%)

Fair

3.90

26% model

Listed

3.15

29% book

Angers win

Angers win: model 32%, fair 3.11, listed 2.75 (34%)

Fair

3.11

32% model

Listed

2.75

34% book

The model disagrees with the listed Le Havre win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 50%, fair 2.02, listed 2.18 (45%)

Fair
2.02
Listed
2.18

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.98, listed 1.77 (55%)

Fair
1.98
Listed
1.77

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 54%, fair 1.87, listed 1.80 (52%)

Fair
1.87
Listed
1.80

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 46%, fair 2.15, listed 1.95 (48%)

Fair
2.15
Listed
1.95

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Le Havre3 out

  • Junior MwangaSuspendedred card suspension
  • Felix MambimbiOutAchilles Tendon Injury
  • Lionel Mpasi NzauOutAchilles Tendon Injury

Angers1 out

  • Haris BelkeblaOutThigh Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Le Havre

3-4-2-1

  1. 93 Gauthier Gallon · G
  2. 5 Ahmed Touba · D
  3. 12 Elias Jelert · D
  4. 15 Ayumu Seko · D
  5. 23 Vincent Sasso · D
  6. 32 Timothee Pembele · D
  7. 7 Amir Richardson · M
  8. 14 Rassoul Ndiaye · M
  9. 26 Simon Ebonog · M
  10. 9 Josh Maja · F
  11. 25 Ally Samatta · F

Angers

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Anthony Lopes · G
  2. 2 Carlens Arcus · D
  3. 4 Ousmane Camara · D
  4. 17 Joseph Kalulu · D
  5. 21 Jordan Lefort · D
  6. 8 Branco Van den Boomen · M
  7. 10 Amine Sbai · M
  8. 14 Yassin Belkhdim · M
  9. 26 Anthony Bermont · M
  10. 18 Jim Allevinah · F
  11. 19 Amine El Ouazzani · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Le Havre

LDLWL
  • 12Stade BrestoisHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.02–2.37

  • 11Olympique LyonnaisAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.69–1.75

  • 01AS MonacoHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.64–1.59

  • 20LorientAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.25–1.30

  • 01Olympique de MarseilleHome · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.14–1.21

Angers

LWLDD
  • 12Stade RennaisHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.66–1.54

  • 31AuxerreAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.55–1.81

  • 02LilleHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.99–1.24

  • 11Stade BrestoisAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.68–1.57

  • 11RC StrasbourgHome · 10 May 2026

    xG 0.59–2.02

How to read the Le Havre vs Angers probabilities

Le Havre vs Angers (Ligue 1, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Le Havre win 42%. Expected goals are 1.44–1.22. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Le Havre and Angers are close on expected goals (1.44–1.22), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
11 Sept 2026, 01:58 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Le Havre win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Le Havre vs Angers

Who is favourite for Le Havre vs Angers?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Le Havre win at 42%. Home 42%, draw 26%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Le Havre vs Angers?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Le Havre vs Angers go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Le Havre vs Angers?
BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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