Who is favourite for Le Mans vs Toulouse?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Toulouse win at 43%. Home 32%, draw 25%, away 43%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Le Mans vs Toulouse?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Le Mans vs Toulouse go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Le Mans vs Toulouse?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 7 · 2026/27

Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction

Slight lean

Toulouse win 43%

Fri 16 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon · Stade Marie-Marvingt

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 2/4 checks hit

Le Mans

0–3

Toulouse won

Toulouse

1X2

Toulouse win

43%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Toulouse win · 43%

Actual Toulouse won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 0–3

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Le MansvsToulouse

Slight lean

Toulouse win43%

Le Mans win: 32%
Draw: 25%
Toulouse win: 43%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.35–1.60
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals3 scored · Hit: Over80%; Under20%
2.5 goals3 scored · Hit: Over57%; Under43%
3.5 goals3 scored · Hit: Over34%; Under66%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Toulouse win 43%, from a -63 Elo gap (1438 vs 1501).
2Expected goals 1.35-1.60.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Adil Bourabaa listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1438
-63
1501
Ligue 1 table
Out: Le Mans3 out
Adil Bourabaa
Erwan Colas
Martin Rossignol
ToulouseNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
9 changes from the expected XI
3-1-4-2/4-4-2
Last 5: Le Mans
LWDDL
Avg xG 1.86-2.22
Toulouse
DWDLD
Avg xG 1.92-1.74

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.7%
212Prediction9.1%
3018.0%
4217.6%
5026.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Le Mans versus Toulouse
Le Mans goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	8%	7%	4%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%
3	2%	3%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Le Mans win

Fair

3.14

32% model

Listed

3.10

32% book

Closing 3.35

Draw

Fair

4.00

25% model

Listed

3.65

27% book

Closing 3.50

Toulouse win

Fair

2.32

43% model

Listed

2.35

42% book

Closing 2.23

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 34 hours before kick-off

Closing 1X2 · H 3.35 · D 3.50 · A 2.23 · captured 18 Oct 2026, 15:36 UTC

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.77
Listed: 1.73

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.30
Listed: 2.20

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.68
Listed: 1.55

BTTS no

Fair: 2.47
Listed: 2.34

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Le Mans3 out

Adil BourabaaOutAnkle Injury
Erwan ColasOutUnknown
Martin RossignolOutUnknown

ToulouseNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Le Mans

Toulouse

Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Le Mans

3-1-4-2

Toulouse

4-4-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Le Mans

LWDDL

13Paris Saint-GermainAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.43–4.25
21LorientHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–0.97
22RC LensHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.59–1.62
11NiceAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.28–1.12
23Stade RennaisAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 3.06–3.12

Toulouse

DWDLD

22AS MonacoAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.43–1.17
32Le HavreHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.95–2.34
22LorientAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.63–0.93
01LilleHome · 3 Sept 2026
xG 3.46–1.21
22Stade BrestoisAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.14–3.04

How to read the Le Mans vs Toulouse probabilities

Le Mans vs Toulouse (Ligue 1, 16 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Toulouse win 43%. Expected goals are 1.35–1.60. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–3.

Toulouse holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.35–1.60). That shows up as Toulouse win at 43%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Toulouse win
Kick-off: Fri 16 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Le Mans vs Toulouse

Who is favourite for Le Mans vs Toulouse?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Toulouse win at 43%. Home 32%, draw 25%, away 43%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Le Mans vs Toulouse?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Le Mans vs Toulouse go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Le Mans vs Toulouse?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.