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Ligue 1 · Round 4 · 2026/27

Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille prediction

Slight lean

Stade Rennais win 44%

· Roazhon Park

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Stade RennaisvsOlympique de Marseille
Slight lean

Stade Rennais win44%

Open gameBoth likely
Stade Rennais win
44%
Draw
22%
Olympique de Marseille win
34%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 9%

Expected goals
1.85–1.59

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
67%
BTTS
67%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Stade Rennais win 44%, from a -10 Elo gap (1578 vs 1588).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.85-1.59.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 9%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 67%.
  5. 5Geoffrey Kondogbia listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo

1578

-10

1588

Ligue 1 table
Out

Stade RennaisNone out

No listed absences

Olympique de Marseille2 out

  • Geoffrey Kondogbia
  • Tochukwu Nnadi
XI
Predicted XI
4-3-3/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Stade Rennais

WWDLW

Avg xG 1.93-2.20

Olympique de Marseille

LLWWW

Avg xG 1.76-1.76

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal9.3%
  2. 221Prediction8.7%
  3. 3127.5%
  4. 4226.9%
  5. 5106.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Stade Rennais versus Olympique de Marseille
Stade Rennais goals012345
03%5%4%2%
16%9%7%4%
25%9%7%4%
33%5%4%2%
42%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Stade Rennais win

Stade Rennais win: model 44%, fair 2.26, listed 2.05 (46%)

Fair

2.26

44% model

Listed

2.05

46% book

Draw

Draw: model 22%, fair 4.52, listed 3.82 (25%)

Fair

4.52

22% model

Listed

3.82

25% book

Olympique de Marseille win

Olympique de Marseille win: model 34%, fair 2.98, listed 3.17 (30%)

Fair

2.98

34% model

Listed

3.17

30% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 67%, fair 1.49, listed 1.55 (63%)

Fair
1.49
Listed
1.55

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 33%, fair 3.02, listed 2.60 (37%)

Fair
3.02
Listed
2.60

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 67%, fair 1.49, listed 1.47 (63%)

Fair
1.49
Listed
1.47

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 33%, fair 3.04, listed 2.55 (37%)

Fair
3.04
Listed
2.55

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Stade RennaisNone out

No listed absences.

Olympique de Marseille2 out

  • Geoffrey KondogbiaOutMuscle Injury
  • Tochukwu NnadiOutKnee Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Stade Rennais

4-3-3

  1. 30 Brice Samba · G
  2. 4 Charlie Cresswell · D
  3. 24 Anthony Rouault · D
  4. 26 Quentin Merlin · D
  5. 10 Ludovic Blas · M
  6. 17 Sebastian Szymański · M
  7. 21 Valentin Rongier · M
  8. 45 Mahdi Camara · M
  9. 95 Przemysław Frankowski · M
  10. 9 Esteban Lepaul · F
  11. 11 Mousa Tamari · F

Olympique de Marseille

4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Jeffrey De Lange · G
  2. 4 Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley · D
  3. 21 Nayef Aguerd · D
  4. 33 Emerson · D
  5. 7 Angel Gomes · M
  6. 8 Himad Abdelli · M
  7. 14 Igor Paixão · M
  8. 22 Timothy Weah · M
  9. 23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · M
  10. 77 Amine Harit · M
  11. 9 Amine Gouiri · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Stade Rennais

WWDLW
  • 21AngersAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.54–1.66

  • 32Le MansHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 3.12–3.06

  • 22Paris Saint-GermainHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.87–2.16

  • 13Olympique de MarseilleAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 2.49–2.92

  • 21Paris FCHome · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.65–1.20

Olympique de Marseille

LLWWW
  • 23Paris FCHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.42–3.29

  • 02AS MonacoAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.40–1.72

  • 40RC StrasbourgHome · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 1.86–0.18

  • 31Stade RennaisHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 2.92–2.49

  • 10Le HavreAway · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.21–1.14

How to read the Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille probabilities

Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille (Ligue 1, 11 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Stade Rennais win 44%. Expected goals are 1.85–1.59. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 9%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Stade Rennais holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.85–1.59). That shows up as Stade Rennais win at 44%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 9%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 67%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 67%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
11 Sept 2026, 01:58 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Stade Rennais win
Kick-off
Fri 11 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille

Who is favourite for Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Stade Rennais win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 22%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 67% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille?
BTTS is 67%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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