Skip to main content
E90

Ligue 1 · Round 7 · 2026/27

Paris FC vs Stade Rennais prediction

Slight lean

Paris FC win 41%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Paris FCvsStade Rennais
Slight lean

Paris FC win41%

Paris FC win
41%
Draw
25%
Stade Rennais win
33%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.57–1.38

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
57%
BTTS
60%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over80%
Under20%
2.5 goals
Over57%
Under43%
3.5 goals
Over34%
Under66%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Paris FC win 41%, from a -67 Elo gap (1512 vs 1579).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.57-1.38.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo

1512

-67

1579

Ligue 1 table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Paris FC

WDWWD

Avg xG 1.76-0.66

Stade Rennais

LWWWD

Avg xG 1.76-2.27

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.7%
  2. 221Prediction8.9%
  3. 3127.8%
  4. 4107.8%
  5. 5016.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Paris FC versus Stade Rennais
Paris FC goals012345
06%7%5%2%
18%12%8%4%
26%9%6%3%
33%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Paris FC win

Paris FC win: model 41%, fair 2.41, listed 2.17 (46%)

Fair

2.41

41% model

Listed

2.17

46% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 3.98, listed 3.80 (26%)

Fair

3.98

25% model

Listed

3.80

26% book

Stade Rennais win

Disagrees

Stade Rennais win: model 33%, fair 2.99, listed 3.60 (28%)

Fair

2.99

33% model

Listed

3.60

28% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Stade Rennais win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 57%, fair 1.77, listed 1.66 (58%)

Fair
1.77
Listed
1.66

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 43%, fair 2.30, listed 2.32 (42%)

Fair
2.30
Listed
2.32

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 60%, fair 1.68, listed 1.54 (60%)

Fair
1.68
Listed
1.54

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 40%, fair 2.48, listed 2.33 (40%)

Fair
2.48
Listed
2.33

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Paris FC

  1. 1 Kevin Trapp · G
  2. 5 Moustapha Mbow · D
  3. 14 Hamari Traoré · D
  4. 17 Adama Camara · D
  5. 31 Samir Chergui · D
  6. 42 Diego Coppola · D
  7. 7 Pablo Pagis · M
  8. 10 Ilan Kebbal · M
  9. 15 Luca Koleosho · M
  10. 33 Pierre Lees Melou · M
  11. 9 Lassine Sinayoko · F

Stade Rennais

  1. 30 Brice Samba · G
  2. 4 Charlie Cresswell · D
  3. 24 Anthony Rouault · D
  4. 26 Quentin Merlin · D
  5. 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal · D
  6. 95 Przemysław Frankowski · D
  7. 11 Mousa Tamari · M
  8. 17 Sebastian Szymański · M
  9. 21 Valentin Rongier · M
  10. 45 Mahdi Camara · M
  11. 9 Esteban Lepaul · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Paris FC

WDWWD
  • 21RC StrasbourgHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.02–0.23

  • 00Olympique LyonnaisHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 0.30–0.50

  • 32Olympique de MarseilleAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 3.29–1.42

  • 30NiceHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.38–0.75

  • 00TroyesAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.80–0.42

Stade Rennais

LWWWD
  • 04Olympique LyonnaisAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.37–3.13

  • 10Olympique de MarseilleHome · 11 Sept 2026

    xG 1.88–1.34

  • 21AngersAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.54–1.66

  • 32Le MansHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 3.12–3.06

  • 22Paris Saint-GermainHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.87–2.16

How to read the Paris FC vs Stade Rennais probabilities

Paris FC vs Stade Rennais (Ligue 1, 18 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Paris FC win 41%. Expected goals are 1.57–1.38. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Paris FC and Stade Rennais are close on expected goals (1.57–1.38), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 60%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Paris FC win
Kick-off
Sun 18 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Paris FC vs Stade Rennais

Who is favourite for Paris FC vs Stade Rennais?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Paris FC win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 25%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Paris FC vs Stade Rennais?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Paris FC vs Stade Rennais go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Paris FC vs Stade Rennais?
BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All Ligue 1 predictions