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Ligue 1 · Round 7 · 2026/27

Le Havre vs Auxerre prediction

Slight lean

Le Havre win 50%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Le HavrevsAuxerre
Slight lean

Le Havre win50%

Le Havre win
50%
Draw
27%
Auxerre win
23%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–0 at 13%

Expected goals
1.49–0.92

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
43%
BTTS
47%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over70%
Under30%
2.5 goals
Over43%
Under57%
3.5 goals
Over22%
Under78%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Le Havre win 50%, from a -31 Elo gap (1429 vs 1460).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.49-0.92.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo

1429

-31

1460

Ligue 1 table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Le Havre

LDLDL

Avg xG 1.40-1.65

Auxerre

WWLLL

Avg xG 1.35-2.03

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 110Modal13.0%
  2. 21112.7%
  3. 32010.0%
  4. 4009.4%
  5. 521Prediction9.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Le Havre versus Auxerre
Le Havre goals012345
09%8%4%
113%13%6%
210%9%4%
35%5%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Le Havre win

Disagrees

Le Havre win: model 50%, fair 1.99, listed 2.39 (42%)

Fair

1.99

50% model

Listed

2.39

42% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.71, listed 3.64 (27%)

Fair

3.71

27% model

Listed

3.64

27% book

Auxerre win

Auxerre win: model 23%, fair 4.38, listed 3.23 (31%)

Fair

4.38

23% model

Listed

3.23

31% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Le Havre win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 43%, fair 2.31, listed 1.78 (54%)

Fair
2.31
Listed
1.78

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 57%, fair 1.76, listed 2.12 (46%)

Fair
1.76
Listed
2.12

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 47%, fair 2.13, listed 1.60 (58%)

Fair
2.13
Listed
1.60

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 53%, fair 1.88, listed 2.24 (42%)

Fair
1.88
Listed
2.24

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Le Havre

  1. 77 Lionel Mpasi Nzau · G
  2. 99 Mory Diaw · G
  3. 4 Gautier Lloris · D
  4. 5 Ahmed Touba · D
  5. 13 Fodé Doucouré · D
  6. 15 Ayumu Seko · D
  7. 7 Amir Richardson · M
  8. 14 Rassoul Ndiaye · M
  9. 26 Simon Ebonog · M
  10. 90 Issa Soumaré · M
  11. 25 Ally Samatta · F

Auxerre

  1. 23 Mamadou Diop · G
  2. 15 Christ Makosso · D
  3. 20 Sinaly Diomandé · D
  4. 92 Clement Akpa · D
  5. 5 Kévin Danois · M
  6. 8 Naouirou Ahamada · M
  7. 27 Lamine Sy · M
  8. 42 Elisha Owusu · M
  9. 46 Arthur Piedfort · M
  10. 3 Remy Labeau Lascary · F
  11. 10 Danny Namaso · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Le Havre

LDLDL
  • 23ToulouseAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 2.34–1.95

  • 00AngersHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.31–0.59

  • 12Stade BrestoisHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.02–2.37

  • 11Olympique LyonnaisAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.69–1.75

  • 01AS MonacoHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.64–1.59

Auxerre

WWLLL
  • 21Stade BrestoisHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 0.65–0.26

  • 10NiceHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.74–1.08

  • 13Olympique LyonnaisAway · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 0.71–2.85

  • 13AngersHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.81–1.55

  • 25RC LensAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.84–4.41

How to read the Le Havre vs Auxerre probabilities

Le Havre vs Auxerre (Ligue 1, 18 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Le Havre win 50%. Expected goals are 1.49–0.92. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Le Havre holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.49–0.92). That shows up as Le Havre win at 50%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 47%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Le Havre win
Kick-off
Sun 18 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Le Havre vs Auxerre

Who is favourite for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Le Havre win at 50%. Home 50%, draw 27%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Le Havre vs Auxerre go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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