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Ligue 1 · Round 8 · 2026/27

Stade Brestois vs Nice prediction

Slight lean

Stade Brestois win 46%

· Stade Francis-Le Ble

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Stade BrestoisvsNice
Slight lean

Stade Brestois win46%

Stade Brestois win
46%
Draw
27%
Nice win
27%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.58–1.15

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
51%
BTTS
55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over76%
Under24%
2.5 goals
Over51%
Under49%
3.5 goals
Over29%
Under71%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Stade Brestois win 46%, from a +2 Elo gap (1507 vs 1505).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.58-1.15.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Giovani Versini listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1507

+2

1505

Ligue 1 table
Out

Stade Brestois2 out

  • Giovani Versini
  • Raphaël Le Guen

Nice4 out

  • Ali Abdi
  • Antoine Mendy
  • Laurent Abergel
  • +1 more
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Stade Brestois

DWLLW

Avg xG 1.69-1.48

Nice

WWLDL

Avg xG 1.14-1.52

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.6%
  2. 2109.5%
  3. 321Prediction9.3%
  4. 4208.1%
  5. 5007.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Stade Brestois versus Nice
Stade Brestois goals012345
07%7%4%
110%13%7%3%
28%9%5%2%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Stade Brestois win

Stade Brestois win: model 46%, fair 2.16, listed 2.23 (43%)

Fair

2.16

46% model

Listed

2.23

43% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.77, listed 3.50 (27%)

Fair

3.77

27% model

Listed

3.50

27% book

Nice win

Nice win: model 27%, fair 3.69, listed 3.26 (29%)

Fair

3.69

27% model

Listed

3.26

29% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.94, listed 1.67 (57%)

Fair
1.94
Listed
1.67

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.06, listed 2.23 (43%)

Fair
2.06
Listed
2.23

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 55%, fair 1.81, listed 1.57 (59%)

Fair
1.81
Listed
1.57

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 45%, fair 2.23, listed 2.25 (41%)

Fair
2.23
Listed
2.25

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Stade Brestois2 out

  • Giovani VersiniOutKnee Injury
  • Raphaël Le GuenOutBroken Ankle

Nice4 out

  • Ali AbdiOutMuscle Injury
  • Antoine MendyOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Laurent AbergelOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Moise BombitoOutLeg Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Stade Brestois

  1. 1 Egil Selvik · G
  2. 2 Bradley Locko · D
  3. 4 Gautier Lloris · D
  4. 29 Lucas Tousart · D
  5. 70 Kenny Lala · D
  6. 71 Raphaël Le Guen · D
  7. 8 Hugo Magnetti · M
  8. 9 Pathé Mboup · M
  9. 13 Joris Chotard · M
  10. 23 Kamory Doumbia · M
  11. 19 Ludovic Ajorque · F

Nice

  1. 23 Yehvann Diouf · G
  2. 5 Mohamed Abdelmonem · D
  3. 27 Niels Nkounkou · D
  4. 55 Youssouf Ndayishimiye · D
  5. 7 Gauthier Hein · M
  6. 10 Sofiane Diop · M
  7. 28 Axel Witsel · M
  8. 35 Xavier Mandza · M
  9. 39 Djibril Coulibaly · M
  10. 92 Jonathan Clauss · M
  11. 11 Elye Wahi · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Stade Brestois

DWLLW
  • 11LilleAway · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 0.78–2.17

  • 51AngersHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 3.82–1.39

  • 12AuxerreAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 0.26–0.65

  • 01Paris Saint-GermainHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 1.24–1.16

  • 21Le HavreAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.37–2.02

Nice

WWLDL
  • 21RC StrasbourgHome · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 1.25–0.63

  • 21LilleHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.50–1.58

  • 01AuxerreAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.08–1.74

  • 11Le MansHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.12–1.28

  • 03Paris FCAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.75–2.38

How to read the Stade Brestois vs Nice probabilities

Stade Brestois vs Nice (Ligue 1, 23 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Stade Brestois win 46%. Expected goals are 1.58–1.15. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Stade Brestois holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.58–1.15). That shows up as Stade Brestois win at 46%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 55%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Stade Brestois win
Kick-off
Fri 23 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Stade Brestois vs Nice

Who is favourite for Stade Brestois vs Nice?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Stade Brestois win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 27%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Stade Brestois vs Nice?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Stade Brestois vs Nice go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Stade Brestois vs Nice?
BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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