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Ligue 1 round 5 results

Ligue 1 round 5 has 1 scored match on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 100%; prediction hits 1. Every favourite in this round landed. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

France. Model l1-v1.1.0-elo. Round 5. Ledger updated 19 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Ligue 1 reliability

Round 5 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 36% (137 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 43% (328 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 53% (248 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 67% (132 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 78% (49 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 74% (19 matches)90–100%: predicted 91%, happened 75% (4 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Ligue 1: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0246 on 917 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0246. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 78% of 49 matches.

ECE
0.0246
Log loss
0.9982
RPS
0.2084
Walk-forward
917
1X2 accuracy
51%
Goal MAE
0.96
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%36%137−2%
40–50%45%43%328−2%
50–60%55%53%248−2%
60–70%64%67%132+3%
70–80%74%78%49+3%
80–90%84%74%19−10%
90–100%91%75%4−16%
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Ligue 1 round 5 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
1
Favourite-correct
100%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
AS Monaco vs RC Lens52–12–1HitAS Monaco win · 39%HitOverHitYesHit

Previous: round 4All Ligue 1 results

Ligue 1 predictions

Ligue 1 round 5 questions

How did Expected90 do in Ligue 1 round 5?
1 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 100% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Ligue 1 round 5 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Ligue 1 rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 4, round 5.

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1

Live season 2026/27 · round 5

Matches scored
10
Log loss
1.0829
RPS
0.1684
Goal MAE
0.89
1X2 accuracy
50%

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.