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Ligue 1 round 5 results

Ligue 1 round 5 has 9 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 67%; prediction hits 3. Favourites that did not land: Nice vs Lille; Auxerre vs Stade Brestois; Le Mans vs Lorient. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

France. Model l1-v1.1.0-elo. Round 5. Ledger updated 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Ligue 1 reliability

Round 5 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 36% (137 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 43% (328 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 53% (248 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 67% (132 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 78% (49 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 74% (19 matches)90–100%: predicted 91%, happened 75% (4 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Ligue 1: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0246 on 917 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0246. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 78% of 49 matches.

ECE
0.0246
Log loss
0.9982
RPS
0.2084
Walk-forward
917
1X2 accuracy
51%
Goal MAE
0.96
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%36%137−2%
40–50%45%43%328−2%
50–60%55%53%248−2%
60–70%64%67%132+3%
70–80%74%78%49+3%
80–90%84%74%19−10%
90–100%91%75%4−16%
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Ligue 1 round 5 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
9
Favourite-correct
67%
Prediction hits
3
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain51–21–2HitParis Saint-Germain win · 48%HitOverHitYesHit
Nice vs Lille52–11–2MissLille win · 51%MissOverHitYesHit
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois52–11–1MissStade Brestois win · 38%MissOverHitYesHit
Angers vs Troyes52–02–1MissAngers win · 46%HitUnderHitYesMiss
Le Mans vs Lorient52–11–2MissLorient win · 45%MissOverHitYesHit
Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais54–02–1MissOlympique Lyonnais win · 41%HitOverHitYesMiss
Toulouse vs Le Havre53–22–1MissToulouse win · 46%HitUnderMissYesHit
Paris FC vs RC Strasbourg52–12–1HitParis FC win · 42%HitOverHitYesHit
AS Monaco vs RC Lens52–12–1HitAS Monaco win · 39%HitOverHitYesHit

Previous: round 4All Ligue 1 resultsNext: round 7

Ligue 1 predictions

Ligue 1 round 5 questions

How did Expected90 do in Ligue 1 round 5?
9 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 67% and 3 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Ligue 1 round 5 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Ligue 1 rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 4, round 5, round 7, round 8.

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1

Round 5 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
9 · 9
Log loss
0.9597·0.8044

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.1553

RPS
0.2524·0.1965

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0559

Brier
0.5718·0.4569

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.1149

Goal MAE
0.77
1X2 accuracy
67%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.59 · 90.6054·0.5673Δ +0.03810.2065·0.188589%Model · Closing line
Under 2.59 · 90.6054·0.5673Δ +0.03810.2065·0.188589%Model · Closing line
BTTS9 · 90.5970·0.6139Δ -0.01690.2026·0.210678%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.