Who is favourite for Lille vs Stade Brestois?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Lille win at 55%. Home 55%, draw 23%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Lille vs Stade Brestois?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Lille vs Stade Brestois go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Lille vs Stade Brestois?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 7 · 2026/27

Lille vs Stade Brestois prediction

Clear lean

Lille win 55%

Sat 17 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon · Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 1/4 checks hit

Lille

1–1

Draw

Stade Brestois

1X2

Lille win

55%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Lille win · 55%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

LillevsStade Brestois

Clear lean

Lille win55%

Lille win: 55%
Draw: 23%
Stade Brestois win: 21%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.86–1.07
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals2 scored · Hit: Over79%; Under21%
2.5 goals2 scored · Miss: Over56%; Under44%
3.5 goals2 scored · Hit: Over34%; Under66%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Lille win 55%, from a +129 Elo gap (1632 vs 1503).
2Expected goals 1.86-1.07.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
4Ayase Ueda listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1632
+129
1503
Ligue 1 table
Out: Lille3 out
Ayase Ueda
Hamza Igamane
Tiago Santos
Stade Brestois2 out
Giovani Versini
Raphaël Le Guen
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Lille
WLWWD
Avg xG 1.39-1.61
Stade Brestois
WLLWD
Avg xG 2.15-1.27

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111ModalResult11.0%
221Prediction9.9%
3109.6%
4209.2%
5316.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Lille versus Stade Brestois
Lille goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	5%	3%
1	10%	11%	6%	2%
2	9%	10%	5%
3	6%	6%	3%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Lille win

Fair

1.80

55% model

Listed

1.83

54% book

Closing 2.20

Draw

Fair

4.30

23% model

Listed

4.00

25% book

Closing 3.51

Stade Brestois win

Fair

4.71

21% model

Listed

4.50

22% book

Closing 3.50

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 2 days before kick-off

Closing 1X2 · H 2.20 · D 3.51 · A 3.50 · captured 18 Oct 2026, 15:36 UTC

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.78
Listed: 1.73

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.28
Listed: 2.20

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.79
Listed: 1.62

BTTS no

Fair: 2.26
Listed: 2.16

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Lille3 out · 1 doubtful

Ayase UedaOutHeel Injury
Hamza IgamaneOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Tiago SantosOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Osame SahraouiDoubtfulFoot Injury

Stade Brestois2 out

Giovani VersiniOutKnee Injury
Raphaël Le GuenOutBroken Ankle

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Lille

Stade Brestois

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Lille

4-2-3-1

Stade Brestois

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Lille

WLWWD

10Le HavreHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.26–1.28
12NiceAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.58–1.50
20TroyesHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.65–0.38
10ToulouseAway · 3 Sept 2026
xG 1.21–3.46
22Paris Saint-GermainHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 1.27–1.44

Stade Brestois

WLLWD

51AngersHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 3.82–1.39
12AuxerreAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.26–0.65
01Paris Saint-GermainHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.24–1.16
21Le HavreAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.37–2.02
22ToulouseHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 3.04–1.14

How to read the Lille vs Stade Brestois probabilities

Lille vs Stade Brestois (Ligue 1, 17 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Lille win 55%. Expected goals are 1.86–1.07. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Lille is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.86–1.07). Lille win is 55%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Lille win
Kick-off: Sat 17 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Lille vs Stade Brestois

Who is favourite for Lille vs Stade Brestois?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Lille win at 55%. Home 55%, draw 23%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Lille vs Stade Brestois?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Lille vs Stade Brestois go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Lille vs Stade Brestois?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.