Who is favourite for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Stade Brestois win at 38%. Home 36%, draw 27%, away 38%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Auxerre vs Stade Brestois go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 5 · 2627.0

Auxerre vs Stade Brestois prediction

Balanced

Stade Brestois win 38%

Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

Published 19 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 2/4 checks hit

Auxerre

2–1

Auxerre won

Stade Brestois

1X2

Stade Brestois win

38%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Stade Brestois win · 38%

Actual Auxerre won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 2–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

AuxerrevsStade Brestois

Balanced

Stade Brestois win38%

Auxerre win: 36%
Draw: 27%
Stade Brestois win: 38%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.35–1.39
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Stade Brestois win 38%, from a -54 Elo gap (1453 vs 1506).
2Expected goals 1.35-1.39.
3Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Assane Dioussé listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1453
-54
1506
Ligue 1 table
Out: Auxerre3 out
Assane Dioussé
Marvin Senaya
Telli Siwe
Stade Brestois2 out
Mamady Diambou
Noah Edjouma
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
3-4-3/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Auxerre
WLLLW
Avg xG 1.33-2.32
Stade Brestois
LWDDD
Avg xG 2.19-1.13

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction12.8%
2128.4%
3018.3%
421Result8.2%
5108.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Auxerre versus Stade Brestois
Auxerre goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	8%	6%	3%
1	8%	13%	8%	4%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:10 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Auxerre win

Fair

2.81

36% model

Listed

3.05

32% book

Draw

Fair

3.72

27% model

Listed

3.70

26% book

Stade Brestois win

Fair

2.67

38% model

Listed

2.35

42% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.87

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 2.05

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.77
Listed: 1.62

BTTS no

Fair: 2.29
Listed: 2.22

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Auxerre3 out

Assane DiousséOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Marvin SenayaOutThigh Injury
Telli SiweOutHamstring Injury

Stade Brestois2 out

Mamady DiambouOutAnkle Injury
Noah EdjoumaOutHamstring Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Auxerre

Stade Brestois

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Auxerre

3-4-3

Stade Brestois

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Auxerre

WLLLW

10NiceHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.74–1.08
13Olympique LyonnaisAway · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–2.85
13AngersHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.81–1.55
25RC LensAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.84–4.41
20LilleAway · 17 May 2026
xG 0.54–1.72

Stade Brestois

LWDDD

01Paris Saint-GermainHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.24–1.16
21Le HavreAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.37–2.02
22ToulouseHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 3.04–1.14
22Le MansAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 2.72–0.67
11AngersHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.57–0.68

How to read the Auxerre vs Stade Brestois probabilities

Auxerre vs Stade Brestois (Ligue 1, 20 Sept 2026): Balanced. Stade Brestois win 38%. Expected goals are 1.35–1.39. Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–1.

Auxerre and Stade Brestois are close on expected goals (1.35–1.39), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Stade Brestois win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Auxerre vs Stade Brestois

Who is favourite for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Stade Brestois win at 38%. Home 36%, draw 27%, away 38%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Auxerre vs Stade Brestois go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.