Who is favourite for Nice vs Lille?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Lille win at 51%. Home 24%, draw 25%, away 51%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Nice vs Lille?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Nice vs Lille go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Nice vs Lille?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 5 · 2026/27

Nice vs Lille prediction

Slight lean

Lille win 51%

Sun 20 Sept, 16:15 Lisbon · Allianz Riviera

Published 14 Sept 2026, 14:12 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

NicevsLille

Slight lean

Lille win51%

Nice win: 24%
Draw: 25%
Lille win: 51%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.13–1.75
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Lille win 51%, from a -152 Elo gap (1488 vs 1639).
2Expected goals 1.13-1.75.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Antoine Mendy listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1488
-152
1639
Ligue 1 table
Out: Nice4 out
Antoine Mendy
Laurent Abergel
Moise Bombito
+1 more
LilleNone out
No listed absences
XI: Predicted XI
3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Nice
LDLDD
Avg xG 1.13-1.51
Lille
WWDWL
Avg xG 1.42-1.56

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.7%
212Prediction9.7%
3019.2%
4028.6%
5216.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Nice versus Lille
Nice goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	6%	9%	9%	5%	2%
1	6%	12%	10%	6%	2%
2	4%	6%	6%	3%
3		2%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 14 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Nice win

Fair

4.17

24% model

Listed

3.67

25% book

Draw

Fair

4.03

25% model

Listed

3.40

27% book

Lille win

Fair

1.95

51% model

Listed

1.97

47% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.82
Listed: 1.93

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.22
Listed: 1.93

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.77
Listed: 1.70

BTTS no

Fair: 2.31
Listed: 2.05

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Nice4 out

Antoine MendyOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Laurent AbergelOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Moise BombitoOutLeg Injury
Morgan SansonOutKnee Surgery

LilleNone out

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Nice

3-4-2-1

Lille

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Nice

LDLDD

01AuxerreAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.08–1.74
11Le MansHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.12–1.28
03Paris FCAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.75–2.38
00LorientHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.05–1.28
00MetzHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.64–0.85

Lille

WWDWL

20TroyesHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.65–0.38
10ToulouseAway · 3 Sept 2026
xG 1.21–3.46
22Paris Saint-GermainHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 1.27–1.44
20AngersAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.24–1.99
02AuxerreHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.72–0.54

How to read the Nice vs Lille probabilities

Nice vs Lille (Ligue 1, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Lille win 51%. Expected goals are 1.13–1.75. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Lille holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.13–1.75). That shows up as Lille win at 51%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 55%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Sept 2026, 14:12 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Lille win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 16:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Nice vs Lille

Who is favourite for Nice vs Lille?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Lille win at 51%. Home 24%, draw 25%, away 51%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Nice vs Lille?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Nice vs Lille go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Nice vs Lille?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.