Who is favourite for Nice vs Lille?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Lille win at 51%. Home 24%, draw 25%, away 51%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Nice vs Lille?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Nice vs Lille go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Nice vs Lille?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 5 · 2627.0

Nice vs Lille prediction

Slight lean

Lille win 51%

Sun 20 Sept, 16:15 Lisbon · Allianz Riviera

Published 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 2/4 checks hit

Nice

2–1

Nice won

Lille

1X2

Lille win

51%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Lille win · 51%

Actual Nice won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 2–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

NicevsLille

Slight lean

Lille win51%

Nice win: 24%
Draw: 25%
Lille win: 51%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.14–1.75
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Lille win 51%, from a -152 Elo gap (1488 vs 1639).
2Expected goals 1.14-1.75.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Antoine Mendy listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1488
-152
1639
Ligue 1 table
Out: Nice4 out
Antoine Mendy
Laurent Abergel
Moise Bombito
+1 more
Lille1 out
Tanguy Nianzou
XI: Expected XI
8 changes from the expected XI
3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Nice
LDLDD
Avg xG 1.13-1.51
Lille
WWDWL
Avg xG 1.42-1.56

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.8%
212Prediction9.7%
3019.0%
4028.5%
521Result6.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Nice versus Lille
Nice goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	6%	9%	8%	5%	2%
1	6%	12%	10%	6%	2%
2	4%	6%	6%	3%
3		2%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:10 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Nice win

Fair

4.14

24% model

Listed

3.39

29% book

Draw

Fair

4.00

25% model

Listed

3.65

27% book

Lille win

Disagrees

Fair

1.97

51% model

Listed

2.25

44% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Lille win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.81
Listed: 1.83

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.23
Listed: 2.10

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.76
Listed: 1.60

BTTS no

Fair: 2.32
Listed: 2.25

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Nice4 out

Antoine MendyOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Laurent AbergelOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Moise BombitoOutLeg Injury
Morgan SansonOutKnee Surgery

Lille1 out

Tanguy NianzouOutKnock Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Nice

Lille

Confirmed XIConfirmed8 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Nice

3-4-2-1

Lille

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Nice

LDLDD

01AuxerreAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.08–1.74
11Le MansHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.12–1.28
03Paris FCAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.75–2.38
00LorientHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.05–1.28
00MetzHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.64–0.85

Lille

WWDWL

20TroyesHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.65–0.38
10ToulouseAway · 3 Sept 2026
xG 1.21–3.46
22Paris Saint-GermainHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 1.27–1.44
20AngersAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.24–1.99
02AuxerreHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.72–0.54

How to read the Nice vs Lille probabilities

Nice vs Lille (Ligue 1, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Lille win 51%. Expected goals are 1.14–1.75. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–1.

Lille holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.14–1.75). That shows up as Lille win at 51%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 55%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Lille win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 16:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Nice vs Lille

Who is favourite for Nice vs Lille?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Lille win at 51%. Home 24%, draw 25%, away 51%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Nice vs Lille?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Nice vs Lille go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Nice vs Lille?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.