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Ligue 1 · Round 5 · 2026/27

Toulouse vs Le Havre prediction

Slight lean

Toulouse win 45%

· Stadium de Toulouse

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

ToulousevsLe Havre
Slight lean

Toulouse win45%

Toulouse win
45%
Draw
27%
Le Havre win
28%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.51–1.13

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Toulouse win 45%, from a +57 Elo gap (1491 vs 1434).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.51-1.13.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Abu Francis listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1491

+57

1434

Ligue 1 table
Out

Toulouse2 out

  • Abu Francis
  • Guillaume Restes

Le Havre2 out

  • Felix Mambimbi
  • Lionel Mpasi Nzau
XI
Predicted XI
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5

Toulouse

DLDLD

Avg xG 1.83-1.19

Le Havre

DLDLW

Avg xG 1.18-1.52

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.8%
  2. 21010.1%
  3. 321Prediction9.2%
  4. 4208.2%
  5. 5007.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Toulouse versus Le Havre
Toulouse goals012345
08%7%5%
110%13%7%3%
28%9%5%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Toulouse win

Disagrees

Toulouse win: model 45%, fair 2.20, listed 1.80 (52%)

Fair

2.20

45% model

Listed

1.80

52% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.71, listed 3.54 (26%)

Fair

3.71

27% model

Listed

3.54

26% book

Le Havre win

Le Havre win: model 28%, fair 3.63, listed 4.27 (22%)

Fair

3.63

28% model

Listed

4.27

22% book

The model disagrees with the listed Toulouse win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.04, listed 1.95 (49%)

Fair
2.04
Listed
1.95

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.97, listed 1.91 (51%)

Fair
1.97
Listed
1.91

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 53%, fair 1.87, listed 1.77 (52%)

Fair
1.87
Listed
1.77

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 47%, fair 2.14, listed 1.95 (48%)

Fair
2.14
Listed
1.95

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Toulouse2 out

  • Abu FrancisOutHamstring Injury
  • Guillaume RestesOutThigh Injury

Le Havre2 out

  • Felix MambimbiOutAchilles Tendon Injury
  • Lionel Mpasi NzauOutAchilles Tendon Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Toulouse

4-2-3-1

  1. 60 Mathys Niflore · G
  2. 3 Mark McKenzie · D
  3. 5 Seny Koumbassa · D
  4. 12 Christ Tapé · D
  5. 8 Thomas Jørgensen · M
  6. 22 Rafik Messali · M
  7. 23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. · M
  8. 31 Niklas Schmidt · M
  9. 9 Santiago Hidalgo · F
  10. 13 Jacen Russell Rowe · F
  11. 37 Ilyas Azizi · F

Le Havre

4-3-3

  1. 93 Gauthier Gallon · G
  2. 5 Ahmed Touba · D
  3. 12 Elias Jelert · D
  4. 15 Ayumu Seko · D
  5. 20 Djibril Ouziad · D
  6. 7 Amir Richardson · M
  7. 17 Kaito Mizuta · M
  8. 26 Simon Ebonog · M
  9. 9 Josh Maja · F
  10. 25 Ally Samatta · F
  11. 30 Sota Nakamura · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Toulouse

DLDLD
  • 22LorientAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.63–0.93

  • 01LilleHome · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 3.46–1.21

  • 22Stade BrestoisAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.14–3.04

  • 02Olympique LyonnaisHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 2.77–0.70

  • 00NantesAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.17–0.09

Le Havre

DLDLW
  • 00AngersHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.31–0.59

  • 12Stade BrestoisHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.02–2.37

  • 11Olympique LyonnaisAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.69–1.75

  • 01AS MonacoHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.64–1.59

  • 20LorientAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.25–1.30

How to read the Toulouse vs Le Havre probabilities

Toulouse vs Le Havre (Ligue 1, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Toulouse win 45%. Expected goals are 1.51–1.13. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Toulouse holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.51–1.13). That shows up as Toulouse win at 45%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 14:12 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Toulouse win
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Toulouse vs Le Havre

Who is favourite for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Toulouse win at 45%. Home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Toulouse vs Le Havre go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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