Who is favourite for Toulouse vs Le Havre?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Toulouse win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Toulouse vs Le Havre?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Toulouse vs Le Havre go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 5 · 2627.0

Toulouse vs Le Havre prediction

Slight lean

Toulouse win 46%

Sat 19 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon · Stadium de Toulouse

Published 19 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 2/4 checks hit

Toulouse

3–2

Toulouse won

Le Havre

1X2

Toulouse win

46%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Toulouse win · 46%

Actual Toulouse won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 3–2

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

ToulousevsLe Havre

Slight lean

Toulouse win46%

Toulouse win: 46%
Draw: 27%
Le Havre win: 28%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.51–1.13
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Toulouse win 46%, from a +57 Elo gap (1491 vs 1434).
2Expected goals 1.51-1.13.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Abu Francis listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1491
+57
1434
Ligue 1 table
Out: Toulouse2 out
Abu Francis
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Le Havre2 out
Felix Mambimbi
Lionel Mpasi Nzau
XI: Expected XI
11 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/3-4-2-1
Last 5: Toulouse
DLDLD
Avg xG 1.83-1.19
Le Havre
DLDLW
Avg xG 1.18-1.52

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.8%
21010.2%
321Prediction9.2%
4208.2%
5007.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Toulouse versus Le Havre
Toulouse goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	7%	5%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	5%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:10 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Toulouse win

Disagrees

Fair

2.20

46% model

Listed

1.70

57% book

Draw

Fair

3.72

27% model

Listed

4.10

24% book

Le Havre win

Fair

3.62

28% model

Listed

5.10

19% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Toulouse win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.04
Listed: 1.70

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.97
Listed: 2.30

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.88
Listed: 1.62

BTTS no

Fair: 2.14
Listed: 2.20

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Toulouse2 out

Abu FrancisOutHamstring Injury
Rasmus NicolaisenOutCalf Injury

Le Havre2 out

Felix MambimbiOutAchilles Tendon Injury
Lionel Mpasi NzauOutAchilles Tendon Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Toulouse

Le Havre

Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Toulouse

4-4-2

Le Havre

3-4-2-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Toulouse

DLDLD

22LorientAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.63–0.93
01LilleHome · 3 Sept 2026
xG 3.46–1.21
22Stade BrestoisAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.14–3.04
02Olympique LyonnaisHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 2.77–0.70
00NantesAway · 17 May 2026
xG 0.17–0.09

Le Havre

DLDLW

00AngersHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.31–0.59
12Stade BrestoisHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.02–2.37
11Olympique LyonnaisAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.69–1.75
01AS MonacoHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.64–1.59
20LorientAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.25–1.30

How to read the Toulouse vs Le Havre probabilities

Toulouse vs Le Havre (Ligue 1, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Toulouse win 46%. Expected goals are 1.51–1.13. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 3–2.

Toulouse holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.51–1.13). That shows up as Toulouse win at 46%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Toulouse win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Toulouse vs Le Havre

Who is favourite for Toulouse vs Le Havre?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Toulouse win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Toulouse vs Le Havre?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Toulouse vs Le Havre go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?: BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.