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Ligue 1 · Round 7 · 2026/27

Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice prediction

Clear lean

Olympique Lyonnais win 59%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Olympique LyonnaisvsNice
Clear lean

Olympique Lyonnais win59%

Olympique Lyonnais win
59%
Draw
23%
Nice win
18%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.86–0.94

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
53%
BTTS
52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over77%
Under23%
2.5 goals
Over53%
Under47%
3.5 goals
Over31%
Under69%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Olympique Lyonnais win 59%, from a +113 Elo gap (1611 vs 1497).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.86-0.94.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.

Match briefing

Elo

1611

+113

1497

Ligue 1 table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Olympique Lyonnais

WDWDW

Avg xG 1.79-1.17

Nice

WLDLD

Avg xG 1.10-1.65

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.0%
  2. 21010.9%
  3. 32010.5%
  4. 421Prediction9.9%
  5. 5306.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Olympique Lyonnais versus Nice
Olympique Lyonnais goals012345
06%5%3%
111%11%5%
210%10%5%
37%6%3%
43%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Olympique Lyonnais win

Disagrees

Olympique Lyonnais win: model 59%, fair 1.71, listed 1.95 (51%)

Fair

1.71

59% model

Listed

1.95

51% book

Draw

Draw: model 23%, fair 4.34, listed 3.95 (25%)

Fair

4.34

23% model

Listed

3.95

25% book

Nice win

Nice win: model 18%, fair 5.44, listed 4.16 (24%)

Fair

5.44

18% model

Listed

4.16

24% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Olympique Lyonnais win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 53%, fair 1.88, listed 1.70 (57%)

Fair
1.88
Listed
1.70

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 47%, fair 2.14, listed 2.22 (43%)

Fair
2.14
Listed
2.22

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 52%, fair 1.93, listed 1.61 (58%)

Fair
1.93
Listed
1.61

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 48%, fair 2.08, listed 2.21 (42%)

Fair
2.08
Listed
2.21

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Olympique Lyonnais

  1. 1 Dominik Greif · G
  2. 13 Zachary Athekame · D
  3. 16 Abner Vinícius · D
  4. 19 Moussa Niakhaté · D
  5. 20 Felix Bacher · D
  6. 22 Clinton Mata · D
  7. 2 Mads Bidstrup · M
  8. 8 Corentin Tolisso · M
  9. 10 Pavel Šulc · M
  10. 23 Tyler Morton · M
  11. 17 Loïs Openda · F

Nice

  1. 23 Yehvann Diouf · G
  2. 5 Mohamed Abdelmonem · D
  3. 33 Antoine Mendy · D
  4. 35 Xavier Mandza · D
  5. 55 Youssouf Ndayishimiye · D
  6. 10 Sofiane Diop · M
  7. 28 Axel Witsel · M
  8. 39 Djibril Coulibaly · M
  9. 92 Jonathan Clauss · M
  10. 7 Gauthier Hein · F
  11. 11 Elye Wahi · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Olympique Lyonnais

WDWDW
  • 40Stade RennaisHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 3.13–1.37

  • 00Paris FCAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 0.50–0.30

  • 31AuxerreHome · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 2.85–0.71

  • 11Le HavreHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.75–0.69

  • 20ToulouseAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.70–2.77

Nice

WLDLD
  • 21LilleHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.50–1.58

  • 01AuxerreAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.08–1.74

  • 11Le MansHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.12–1.28

  • 03Paris FCAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.75–2.38

  • 00LorientHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.05–1.28

How to read the Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice probabilities

Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice (Ligue 1, 18 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Olympique Lyonnais win 59%. Expected goals are 1.86–0.94. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Olympique Lyonnais is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.86–0.94). Olympique Lyonnais win is 59%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Olympique Lyonnais win
Kick-off
Sun 18 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice

Who is favourite for Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Olympique Lyonnais win at 59%. Home 59%, draw 23%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice?
BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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