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Ligue 1 · Round 4 · 2026/27

Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais prediction

Slight lean

Olympique Lyonnais win 43%

· Stade Jean Bouin

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Paris FCvsOlympique Lyonnais
Slight lean

Olympique Lyonnais win43%

Paris FC win
32%
Draw
25%
Olympique Lyonnais win
43%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.30–1.53

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
54%
BTTS
57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Olympique Lyonnais win 43%, from a -103 Elo gap (1503 vs 1606).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.30-1.53.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Emmanuel Mbemba listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1503

-103

1606

Ligue 1 table
Out

Paris FC3 out

  • Emmanuel Mbemba
  • Nhoa Sangui
  • Otávio

Olympique LyonnaisNone out

No listed absences

XI
Predicted XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Paris FC

WWDWL

Avg xG 2.17-0.97

Olympique Lyonnais

WDWLL

Avg xG 1.75-1.37

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.6%
  2. 2019.1%
  3. 312Prediction9.0%
  4. 4107.8%
  5. 5217.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Paris FC versus Olympique Lyonnais
Paris FC goals012345
06%9%7%4%
18%12%9%5%
25%8%6%3%
32%3%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Paris FC win

Paris FC win: model 32%, fair 3.08, listed 2.54 (36%)

Fair

3.08

32% model

Listed

2.54

36% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 4.05, listed 3.57 (26%)

Fair

4.05

25% model

Listed

3.57

26% book

Olympique Lyonnais win

Disagrees

Olympique Lyonnais win: model 43%, fair 2.33, listed 2.46 (38%)

Fair

2.33

43% model

Listed

2.46

38% book

The model disagrees with the listed Olympique Lyonnais win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 54%, fair 1.86, listed 1.75 (56%)

Fair
1.86
Listed
1.75

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 46%, fair 2.16, listed 2.22 (44%)

Fair
2.16
Listed
2.22

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 57%, fair 1.76, listed 1.53 (61%)

Fair
1.76
Listed
1.53

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 43%, fair 2.32, listed 2.38 (39%)

Fair
2.32
Listed
2.38

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Paris FC3 out

  • Emmanuel MbembaOutLeg Injury
  • Nhoa SanguiOutUnknown
  • OtávioOutThigh Injury

Olympique LyonnaisNone out

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Paris FC

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Kevin Trapp · G
  2. 14 Hamari Traoré · D
  3. 31 Samir Chergui · D
  4. 42 Diego Coppola · D
  5. 10 Ilan Kebbal · M
  6. 17 Adama Camara · M
  7. 20 Maxime López · M
  8. 33 Pierre Lees Melou · M
  9. 7 Pablo Pagis · F
  10. 9 Lassine Sinayoko · F
  11. 15 Luca Koleosho · F

Olympique Lyonnais

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Dominik Greif · G
  2. 13 Zachary Athekame · D
  3. 16 Abner Vinícius · D
  4. 19 Moussa Niakhaté · D
  5. 20 Felix Bacher · D
  6. 2 Mads Bidstrup · M
  7. 8 Corentin Tolisso · M
  8. 23 Tyler Morton · M
  9. 7 Ernest Nuamah · F
  10. 10 Pavel Šulc · F
  11. 17 Loïs Openda · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Paris FC

WWDWL
  • 32Olympique de MarseilleAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 3.29–1.42

  • 30NiceHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.38–0.75

  • 00TroyesAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.80–0.42

  • 21Paris Saint-GermainHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 2.20–0.61

  • 12Stade RennaisAway · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.20–1.65

Olympique Lyonnais

WDWLL
  • 31AuxerreHome · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 2.85–0.71

  • 11Le HavreHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.75–0.69

  • 20ToulouseAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.70–2.77

  • 04RC LensHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.91–1.54

  • 12ToulouseAway · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.54–1.13

How to read the Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais probabilities

Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais (Ligue 1, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Olympique Lyonnais win 43%. Expected goals are 1.30–1.53. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Paris FC and Olympique Lyonnais are close on expected goals (1.30–1.53), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
11 Sept 2026, 01:58 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Olympique Lyonnais win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais

Who is favourite for Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Olympique Lyonnais win at 43%. Home 32%, draw 25%, away 43%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais?
BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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