Who is favourite for Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Olympique Lyonnais win at 42%. Home 32%, draw 25%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 4 · 2627.0

Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais prediction

Slight lean

Olympique Lyonnais win 42%

Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon · Stade Jean Bouin

Published 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 0/4 checks hit

Paris FC

0–0

Draw

Olympique Lyonnais

1X2

Olympique Lyonnais win

42%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Olympique Lyonnais win · 42%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Paris FCvsOlympique Lyonnais

Slight lean

Olympique Lyonnais win42%

Paris FC win: 32%
Draw: 25%
Olympique Lyonnais win: 42%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.30–1.52
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Olympique Lyonnais win 42%, from a -103 Elo gap (1503 vs 1606).
2Expected goals 1.30-1.52.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Emmanuel Mbemba listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1503
-103
1606
Ligue 1 table
Out: Paris FC4 out
Emmanuel Mbemba
Nhoa Sangui
Otávio
+1 more
Olympique LyonnaisNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
8 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Paris FC
WWDWL
Avg xG 2.17-0.97
Olympique Lyonnais
WDWLL
Avg xG 1.75-1.37

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.9%
2019.0%
312Prediction9.0%
4107.7%
5217.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Paris FC versus Olympique Lyonnais
Paris FC goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	9%	7%	3%
1	8%	12%	9%	5%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%
3	2%	3%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:10 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Paris FC win

Fair

3.09

32% model

Listed

2.58

38% book

Draw

Fair

3.97

25% model

Listed

3.70

27% book

Olympique Lyonnais win

Disagrees

Fair

2.36

42% model

Listed

2.83

35% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Olympique Lyonnais win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.87
Listed: 1.57

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.15
Listed: 2.55

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.76
Listed: 1.45

BTTS no

Fair: 2.31
Listed: 2.60

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Paris FC4 out

Emmanuel MbembaOutLeg Injury
Nhoa SanguiOutUnknown
OtávioOutThigh Injury
Thibault De SmetOutUnknown

Olympique LyonnaisNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Paris FC

Olympique Lyonnais

Confirmed XIConfirmed8 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Paris FC

4-2-3-1

Olympique Lyonnais

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Paris FC

WWDWL

32Olympique de MarseilleAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 3.29–1.42
30NiceHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 2.38–0.75
00TroyesAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.80–0.42
21Paris Saint-GermainHome · 17 May 2026
xG 2.20–0.61
12Stade RennaisAway · 10 May 2026
xG 1.20–1.65

Olympique Lyonnais

WDWLL

31AuxerreHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 2.85–0.71
11Le HavreHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.75–0.69
20ToulouseAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.70–2.77
04RC LensHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.91–1.54
12ToulouseAway · 10 May 2026
xG 1.54–1.13

How to read the Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais probabilities

Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais (Ligue 1, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Olympique Lyonnais win 42%. Expected goals are 1.30–1.52. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Paris FC and Olympique Lyonnais are close on expected goals (1.30–1.52), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Olympique Lyonnais win
Kick-off: Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais

Who is favourite for Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Olympique Lyonnais win at 42%. Home 32%, draw 25%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.