Who is favourite for Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Olympique Lyonnais win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 26%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 5 · 2627.0

Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais prediction

Slight lean

Olympique Lyonnais win 41%

Sat 19 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon · Groupama Stadium

Published 19 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 2/4 checks hit

Olympique Lyonnais

4–0

Olympique Lyonnais won

Stade Rennais

1X2

Olympique Lyonnais win

41%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Olympique Lyonnais win · 41%

Actual Olympique Lyonnais won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 4–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Olympique LyonnaisvsStade Rennais

Slight lean

Olympique Lyonnais win41%

Olympique Lyonnais win: 41%
Draw: 26%
Stade Rennais win: 32%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.51–1.31
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Olympique Lyonnais win 41%, from a +20 Elo gap (1605 vs 1585).
2Expected goals 1.51-1.31.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Nicolás Tagliafico listed out.

Match briefing

Elo: 1605
+20
1585
Ligue 1 table
Out: Olympique Lyonnais1 out
Nicolás Tagliafico
Stade RennaisNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
9 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-1-4-1
Last 5: Olympique Lyonnais
DWDWL
Avg xG 1.54-1.20
Stade Rennais
WWWDL
Avg xG 1.98-2.23

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.4%
221Prediction8.9%
3108.4%
4127.7%
5017.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Olympique Lyonnais versus Stade Rennais
Olympique Lyonnais goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	7%	5%	2%
1	8%	12%	8%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4	1%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:10 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Olympique Lyonnais win

Fair

2.42

41% model

Listed

2.20

45% book

Draw

Fair

3.80

26% model

Listed

3.85

26% book

Stade Rennais win

Fair

3.08

32% model

Listed

3.35

29% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.87
Listed: 1.55

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.15
Listed: 2.50

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.74
Listed: 1.45

BTTS no

Fair: 2.35
Listed: 2.60

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Olympique Lyonnais1 out

Nicolás TagliaficoOutMuscle Injury

Stade RennaisNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Olympique Lyonnais

Stade Rennais

Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Olympique Lyonnais

4-2-3-1

Stade Rennais

4-1-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Olympique Lyonnais

DWDWL

00Paris FCAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.50–0.30
31AuxerreHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 2.85–0.71
11Le HavreHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.75–0.69
20ToulouseAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.70–2.77
04RC LensHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.91–1.54

Stade Rennais

WWWDL

10Olympique de MarseilleHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–1.34
21AngersAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.54–1.66
32Le MansHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 3.12–3.06
22Paris Saint-GermainHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.87–2.16
13Olympique de MarseilleAway · 17 May 2026
xG 2.49–2.92

How to read the Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais probabilities

Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais (Ligue 1, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Olympique Lyonnais win 41%. Expected goals are 1.51–1.31. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 4–0.

Olympique Lyonnais and Stade Rennais are close on expected goals (1.51–1.31), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Olympique Lyonnais win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais

Who is favourite for Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Olympique Lyonnais win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 26%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.