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Ligue 1 · Round 4 · 2026/27

Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction

Clear lean

Paris Saint-Germain win 55%

· Stade Francis-Le Ble

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Stade BrestoisvsParis Saint-Germain
Clear lean

Paris Saint-Germain win55%

Open gameBoth likely
Stade Brestois win
24%
Draw
21%
Paris Saint-Germain win
55%
Prediction
1–2

Grid peak · 9%

Expected goals
1.38–2.15

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
68%
BTTS
66%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Paris Saint-Germain win 55%, from a -225 Elo gap (1511 vs 1736).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.38-2.15.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 68%.
  5. 5Mamady Diambou listed out.

Match briefing

Elo

1511

-225

1736

Ligue 1 table
Out

Stade Brestois1 out

  • Mamady Diambou

Paris Saint-GermainNone out

No listed absences

XI
Predicted XI
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5

Stade Brestois

WDDDL

Avg xG 2.55-1.31

Paris Saint-Germain

LDDLW

Avg xG 1.55-1.54

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 112Prediction9.4%
  2. 2118.6%
  3. 3026.8%
  4. 4136.7%
  5. 5226.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Stade Brestois versus Paris Saint-Germain
Stade Brestois goals012345
03%6%7%5%3%
14%9%9%7%4%
23%6%6%5%2%
33%3%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Stade Brestois win

Stade Brestois win: model 24%, fair 4.11, listed 9.00 (10%)

Fair

4.11

24% model

Listed

9.00

10% book

Draw

Draw: model 21%, fair 4.88, listed 6.00 (15%)

Fair

4.88

21% model

Listed

6.00

15% book

Paris Saint-Germain win

Disagrees

Paris Saint-Germain win: model 55%, fair 1.81, listed 1.25 (74%)

Fair

1.81

55% model

Listed

1.25

74% book

The model disagrees with the listed Paris Saint-Germain win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 68%, fair 1.46, listed 1.44 (67%)

Fair
1.46
Listed
1.44

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 32%, fair 3.16, listed 2.98 (33%)

Fair
3.16
Listed
2.98

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 66%, fair 1.52, listed 1.77 (52%)

Fair
1.52
Listed
1.77

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 34%, fair 2.94, listed 1.95 (48%)

Fair
2.94
Listed
1.95

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Stade Brestois1 out

  • Mamady DiambouOutAnkle Injury

Paris Saint-GermainNone out

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Stade Brestois

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Egil Selvik · G
  2. 2 Bradley Locko · D
  3. 4 Gautier Lloris · D
  4. 71 Raphaël Le Guen · D
  5. 77 Kenny Lala · D
  6. 8 Hugo Magnetti · M
  7. 9 Pathé Mboup · M
  8. 13 Joris Chotard · M
  9. 23 Kamory Doumbia · M
  10. 17 Mama Baldé · F
  11. 19 Ludovic Ajorque · F

Paris Saint-Germain

4-3-3

  1. 39 Matvey Safonov · G
  2. 2 Achraf Hakimi · D
  3. 5 Marquinhos · D
  4. 25 Nuno Mendes · D
  5. 51 Willian Pacho · D
  6. 8 Fabián Ruiz · M
  7. 17 Vitinha · M
  8. 87 João Neves · M
  9. 7 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · F
  10. 9 Ferran Torres · F
  11. 10 Ousmane Dembélé · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Stade Brestois

WDDDL
  • 21Le HavreAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.37–2.02

  • 22ToulouseHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 3.04–1.14

  • 22Le MansAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 2.72–0.67

  • 11AngersHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.57–0.68

  • 12RC StrasbourgHome · 13 May 2026

    xG 3.06–2.02

Paris Saint-Germain

LDDLW
  • 12AS MonacoHome · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 2.32–0.51

  • 22LilleAway · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 1.44–1.27

  • 22Stade RennaisAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 2.16–0.87

  • 12Paris FCAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.61–2.20

  • 20RC LensAway · 13 May 2026

    xG 1.22–2.87

How to read the Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain probabilities

Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain (Ligue 1, 13 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Paris Saint-Germain win 55%. Expected goals are 1.38–2.15. Prediction 1–2 (9%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Paris Saint-Germain is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.38–2.15). Paris Saint-Germain win is 55%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–2 carries 9%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 68%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 66%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
11 Sept 2026, 01:58 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Paris Saint-Germain win
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain

Who is favourite for Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Paris Saint-Germain win at 55%. Home 24%, draw 21%, away 55%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain?
1–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 68% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain?
BTTS is 66%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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