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Ligue 1 · Round 4 · 2026/27

Auxerre vs Nice prediction

Slight lean

Auxerre win 42%

· Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

AuxerrevsNice
Slight lean

Auxerre win42%

Auxerre win
42%
Draw
25%
Nice win
34%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.50–1.32

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
54%
BTTS
57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Auxerre win 42%, from a -50 Elo gap (1445 vs 1495).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.50-1.32.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Assane Dioussé listed out and 8 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1445

-50

1495

Ligue 1 table
Out

Auxerre4 out

  • Assane Dioussé
  • Marvin Senaya
  • Sekou Fofana
  • +1 more

Nice5 out

  • Hicham Boudaoui
  • Antoine Mendy
  • Laurent Abergel
  • +2 more
XI
Predicted XI
4-3-3/3-4-2-1
Last 5

Auxerre

LLLWW

Avg xG 1.15-2.37

Nice

DLDDL

Avg xG 1.18-1.33

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.7%
  2. 2109.0%
  3. 321Prediction8.8%
  4. 4018.0%
  5. 5127.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Auxerre versus Nice
Auxerre goals012345
06%8%5%2%
19%12%8%3%
27%9%6%3%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Auxerre win

Auxerre win: model 42%, fair 2.41, listed 2.50 (37%)

Fair

2.41

42% model

Listed

2.50

37% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 4.03, listed 3.30 (28%)

Fair

4.03

25% model

Listed

3.30

28% book

Nice win

Nice win: model 34%, fair 2.97, listed 2.65 (35%)

Fair

2.97

34% model

Listed

2.65

35% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 54%, fair 1.86, listed 2.07 (48%)

Fair
1.86
Listed
2.07

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 46%, fair 2.16, listed 1.91 (52%)

Fair
2.16
Listed
1.91

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 57%, fair 1.76, listed 1.70 (55%)

Fair
1.76
Listed
1.70

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 43%, fair 2.32, listed 2.08 (45%)

Fair
2.32
Listed
2.08

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Auxerre4 out · 1 doubtful

  • Assane DiousséOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Marvin SenayaOutThigh Injury
  • Sekou FofanaOutGroin Injury
  • Telli SiweOutHamstring Injury
  • Elikya LegrosDoubtfulKnee Injury

Nice5 out

  • Hicham BoudaouiOutpending transfer
  • Antoine MendyOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Laurent AbergelOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Moise BombitoOutLeg Injury
  • Morgan SansonOutKnee Surgery

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Auxerre

4-3-3

  1. 23 Mamadou Diop · G
  2. 15 Christ Makosso · D
  3. 20 Sinaly Diomandé · D
  4. 27 Lamine Sy · D
  5. 92 Clement Akpa · D
  6. 5 Kévin Danois · M
  7. 8 Naouirou Ahamada · M
  8. 46 Arthur Piedfort · M
  9. 3 Remy Labeau Lascary · F
  10. 9 Cameron Archer · F
  11. 10 Danny Namaso · F

Nice

3-4-2-1

  1. 23 Yehvann Diouf · G
  2. 5 Mohamed Abdelmonem · D
  3. 27 Niels Nkounkou · D
  4. 55 Youssouf Ndayishimiye · D
  5. 7 Gauthier Hein · M
  6. 10 Sofiane Diop · M
  7. 28 Axel Witsel · M
  8. 35 Xavier Mandza · M
  9. 39 Djibril Coulibaly · M
  10. 92 Jonathan Clauss · M
  11. 11 Elye Wahi · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Auxerre

LLLWW
  • 13Olympique LyonnaisAway · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 0.71–2.85

  • 13AngersHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.81–1.55

  • 25RC LensAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.84–4.41

  • 20LilleAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.54–1.72

  • 21NiceHome · 10 May 2026

    xG 0.84–1.33

Nice

DLDDL
  • 11Le MansHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.12–1.28

  • 03Paris FCAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.75–2.38

  • 00LorientHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.05–1.28

  • 00MetzHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.64–0.85

  • 12AuxerreAway · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.33–0.84

How to read the Auxerre vs Nice probabilities

Auxerre vs Nice (Ligue 1, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Auxerre win 42%. Expected goals are 1.50–1.32. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Auxerre and Nice are close on expected goals (1.50–1.32), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
11 Sept 2026, 01:58 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Auxerre win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Auxerre vs Nice

Who is favourite for Auxerre vs Nice?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Auxerre win at 42%. Home 42%, draw 25%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Auxerre vs Nice?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Auxerre vs Nice go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Auxerre vs Nice?
BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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