Who is favourite for Auxerre vs Nice?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Auxerre win at 42%. Home 42%, draw 25%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Auxerre vs Nice?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Auxerre vs Nice go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Auxerre vs Nice?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 4 · 2627.0

Auxerre vs Nice prediction

Slight lean

Auxerre win 42%

Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

Published 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 1/4 checks hit

Auxerre

1–0

Auxerre won

Nice

1X2

Auxerre win

42%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Auxerre win · 42%

Actual Auxerre won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

AuxerrevsNice

Slight lean

Auxerre win42%

Auxerre win: 42%
Draw: 25%
Nice win: 33%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.50–1.32
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Auxerre win 42%, from a -50 Elo gap (1445 vs 1495).
2Expected goals 1.50-1.32.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Assane Dioussé listed out and 7 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1445
-50
1495
Ligue 1 table
Out: Auxerre4 out
Assane Dioussé
Marvin Senaya
Sekou Fofana
+1 more
Nice4 out
Antoine Mendy
Laurent Abergel
Moise Bombito
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
14 changes from the expected XI
3-4-3/3-4-2-1
Last 5: Auxerre
LLLWW
Avg xG 1.15-2.37
Nice
DLDDL
Avg xG 1.18-1.33

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.9%
210Result8.9%
321Prediction8.9%
4127.8%
5017.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Auxerre versus Nice
Auxerre goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	8%	5%	2%
1	9%	12%	8%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:10 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Auxerre win

Disagrees

Fair

2.41

42% model

Listed

3.00

33% book

Draw

Fair

3.97

25% model

Listed

3.45

29% book

Nice win

Fair

3.00

33% model

Listed

2.62

38% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Auxerre win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.87
Listed: 1.95

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.15
Listed: 1.94

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.75
Listed: 1.68

BTTS no

Fair: 2.33
Listed: 2.08

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Auxerre4 out

Assane DiousséOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Marvin SenayaOutThigh Injury
Sekou FofanaOutGroin Injury
Telli SiweOutHamstring Injury

Nice4 out

Antoine MendyOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Laurent AbergelOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Moise BombitoOutLeg Injury
Morgan SansonOutKnee Surgery

XI used for this forecast (expected, 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Auxerre

Nice

Confirmed XIConfirmed14 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Auxerre

3-4-3

Nice

3-4-2-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Auxerre

LLLWW

13Olympique LyonnaisAway · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–2.85
13AngersHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.81–1.55
25RC LensAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.84–4.41
20LilleAway · 17 May 2026
xG 0.54–1.72
21NiceHome · 10 May 2026
xG 0.84–1.33

Nice

DLDDL

11Le MansHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.12–1.28
03Paris FCAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.75–2.38
00LorientHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.05–1.28
00MetzHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.64–0.85
12AuxerreAway · 10 May 2026
xG 1.33–0.84

How to read the Auxerre vs Nice probabilities

Auxerre vs Nice (Ligue 1, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Auxerre win 42%. Expected goals are 1.50–1.32. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

Auxerre and Nice are close on expected goals (1.50–1.32), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Auxerre win
Kick-off: Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Auxerre vs Nice

Who is favourite for Auxerre vs Nice?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Auxerre win at 42%. Home 42%, draw 25%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Auxerre vs Nice?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Auxerre vs Nice go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Auxerre vs Nice?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.