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Ligue 1 round 4 results

Ligue 1 round 4 has 9 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 44%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Le Mans vs RC Lens; Le Havre vs Angers; Lorient vs Toulouse; Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais; RC Strasbourg vs AS Monaco. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

France. Model l1-v1.1.0-elo. Round 4. Ledger updated 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Ligue 1 reliability

Round 4 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 36% (137 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 43% (328 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 53% (248 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 67% (132 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 78% (49 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 74% (19 matches)90–100%: predicted 91%, happened 75% (4 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Ligue 1: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0246 on 917 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0246. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 78% of 49 matches.

ECE
0.0246
Log loss
0.9982
RPS
0.2084
Walk-forward
917
1X2 accuracy
51%
Goal MAE
0.96
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%36%137−2%
40–50%45%43%328−2%
50–60%55%53%248−2%
60–70%64%67%132+3%
70–80%74%78%49+3%
80–90%84%74%19−10%
90–100%91%75%4−16%
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Ligue 1 round 4 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
9
Favourite-correct
44%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain40–11–2MissParis Saint-Germain win · 55%HitOverMissYesMiss
Le Mans vs RC Lens42–21–2MissRC Lens win · 63%MissOverHitYesHit
Lille vs Troyes42–02–1MissLille win · 62%HitOverMissYesMiss
Auxerre vs Nice41–02–1MissAuxerre win · 42%HitOverMissYesMiss
Le Havre vs Angers40–02–1MissLe Havre win · 42%MissUnderHitYesMiss
Lorient vs Toulouse42–22–1MissLorient win · 40%MissUnderMissYesHit
Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais40–01–2MissOlympique Lyonnais win · 42%MissOverMissYesMiss
RC Strasbourg vs AS Monaco41–12–1MissRC Strasbourg win · 47%MissOverMissYesHit
Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille41–02–1MissStade Rennais win · 44%HitOverMissYesMiss

All Ligue 1 resultsNext: round 5

Ligue 1 predictions

Ligue 1 round 4 questions

How did Expected90 do in Ligue 1 round 4?
9 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 44% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Ligue 1 round 4 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Ligue 1 rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 4, round 5, round 7, round 8.

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1

Round 4 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
9 · 9
Log loss
1.0998·1.0191

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0807

RPS
0.1599·0.1431

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0168

Brier
0.6621·0.6097

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0524

Goal MAE
0.94
1X2 accuracy
44%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.59 · 90.8194·0.8419Δ -0.02250.3110·0.321322%Model · Closing line
Under 2.59 · 90.8194·0.8419Δ -0.02250.3110·0.321322%Model · Closing line
BTTS9 · 90.7749·0.7491Δ +0.02580.2894·0.277033%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.