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Ligue 1 round 4 results

Ligue 1 round 4 has 1 scored match on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 100%; prediction hits 0. Every favourite in this round landed. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

France. Model l1-v1.1.0-elo. Round 4. Ledger updated 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Ligue 1 reliability

Round 4 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 36% (137 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 43% (328 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 53% (248 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 67% (132 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 78% (49 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 74% (19 matches)90–100%: predicted 91%, happened 75% (4 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Ligue 1: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0246 on 917 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0246. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 78% of 49 matches.

ECE
0.0246
Log loss
0.9982
RPS
0.2084
Walk-forward
917
1X2 accuracy
51%
Goal MAE
0.96
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%36%137−2%
40–50%45%43%328−2%
50–60%55%53%248−2%
60–70%64%67%132+3%
70–80%74%78%49+3%
80–90%84%74%19−10%
90–100%91%75%4−16%
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Ligue 1 round 4 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
1
Favourite-correct
100%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille41–02–1MissStade Rennais win · 44%HitOverMissYesMiss

Ligue 1 predictions

Ligue 1 round 4 questions

How did Expected90 do in Ligue 1 round 4?
1 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 100% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Ligue 1 round 4 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Ligue 1 rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 4.

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1

Live season 2026/27 · round 4

Matches scored
1
Log loss
0.8135
RPS
0.2113
Goal MAE
1.22
1X2 accuracy
100%

Live sample only. Several strong favourites can draw in a single round. These numbers will move; they are not a claim about long-run quality.