Who is favourite for Lille vs Troyes?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Lille win at 62%. Home 62%, draw 21%, away 16%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Lille vs Troyes?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Lille vs Troyes go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Lille vs Troyes?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 4 · 2627.0

Lille vs Troyes prediction

Clear lean

Lille win 62%

Sun 13 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon · Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy

Published 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 1/4 checks hit

Lille

2–0

Lille won

Troyes

1X2

Lille win

62%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–0

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Lille win · 62%

Actual Lille won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

LillevsTroyes

Clear lean

Lille win62%

Lille win: 62%
Draw: 21%
Troyes win: 16%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.95–0.88
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Lille win 62%, from a +277 Elo gap (1637 vs 1360).
2Expected goals 1.95-0.88.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 11%.
4Paolo Gozzi listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1637
+277
1360
Ligue 1 table
Out: LilleNone out
No listed absences
Troyes2 out
Paolo Gozzi
Yvann Titi
XI: Expected XI
15 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Lille
WDWLW
Avg xG 1.17-1.56
Troyes
LWDDL
Avg xG 1.24-1.72

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

110Modal11.5%
220Result11.2%
31110.2%
421Prediction9.9%
5307.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Lille versus Troyes
Lille goals	0	1	2
0	6%	5%	2%
1	11%	10%	4%
2	11%	10%	4%
3	7%	6%	3%
4	4%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:10 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Lille win

Fair

1.60

62% model

Listed

1.51

65% book

Draw

Fair

4.67

21% model

Listed

4.75

21% book

Troyes win

Fair

6.17

16% model

Listed

7.00

14% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.86
Listed: 1.70

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.16
Listed: 2.28

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.99
Listed: 1.85

BTTS no

Fair: 2.01
Listed: 1.89

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

LilleNone out

No listed absences.

Troyes2 out

Paolo GozziOutNeck Injury
Yvann TitiOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Lille

Troyes

Confirmed XIConfirmed15 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Lille

4-2-3-1

Troyes

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Lille

WDWLW

10ToulouseAway · 3 Sept 2026
xG 1.21–3.46
22Paris Saint-GermainHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 1.27–1.44
20AngersAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.24–1.99
02AuxerreHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.72–0.54
10AS MonacoAway · 10 May 2026
xG 0.39–0.37

Troyes

LWDDL

26RC StrasbourgHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 2.94–2.95
21LorientAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.12–1.15
00Paris FCHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.42–1.80
11LilleHome · 3 Jun 2023
xG 0.38–1.45
12AngersAway · 27 May 2023
xG 0.32–1.26

How to read the Lille vs Troyes probabilities

Lille vs Troyes (Ligue 1, 13 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Lille win 62%. Expected goals are 1.95–0.88. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–0.

Lille is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.95–0.88). Lille win is 62%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 12 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Lille win
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Lille vs Troyes

Who is favourite for Lille vs Troyes?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Lille win at 62%. Home 62%, draw 21%, away 16%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Lille vs Troyes?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Lille vs Troyes go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Lille vs Troyes?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.