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Ligue 1 · Round 8 · 2026/27

RC Lens vs Paris FC prediction

Clear lean

RC Lens win 56%

· Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

RC LensvsParis FC
Clear lean

RC Lens win56%

RC Lens win
56%
Draw
24%
Paris FC win
20%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.82–1.01

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
54%
BTTS
54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over78%
Under22%
2.5 goals
Over54%
Under46%
3.5 goals
Over32%
Under68%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: RC Lens win 56%, from a +105 Elo gap (1610 vs 1505).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.82-1.01.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Abdallah Sima listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1610

+105

1505

Ligue 1 table
Out

RC Lens2 out

  • Abdallah Sima
  • Maik Nawrocki

Paris FC2 out

  • Jonathan Ikoné
  • Nhoa Sangui
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

RC Lens

WWLDL

Avg xG 1.36-1.63

Paris FC

DLWDW

Avg xG 1.40-0.68

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.5%
  2. 21010.0%
  3. 321Prediction9.9%
  4. 4209.7%
  5. 5006.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for RC Lens versus Paris FC
RC Lens goals012345
07%5%3%
110%12%5%
210%10%5%
36%6%3%
43%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

RC Lens win

Disagrees

RC Lens win: model 56%, fair 1.80, listed 2.07 (46%)

Fair

1.80

56% model

Listed

2.07

46% book

Draw

Draw: model 24%, fair 4.12, listed 3.74 (25%)

Fair

4.12

24% model

Listed

3.74

25% book

Paris FC win

Paris FC win: model 20%, fair 4.98, listed 3.30 (29%)

Fair

4.98

20% model

Listed

3.30

29% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed RC Lens win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 54%, fair 1.85, listed 1.62 (59%)

Fair
1.85
Listed
1.62

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 46%, fair 2.17, listed 2.31 (41%)

Fair
2.17
Listed
2.31

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 54%, fair 1.85, listed 1.53 (61%)

Fair
1.85
Listed
1.53

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 46%, fair 2.18, listed 2.38 (39%)

Fair
2.18
Listed
2.38

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

RC Lens2 out · 2 doubtful

  • Abdallah SimaOutThigh Injury
  • Maik NawrockiOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Ismaelo GaniouDoubtfulKnee Injury
  • Ruben AguilarDoubtfulAnkle Injury

Paris FC2 out

  • Jonathan IkonéOutThigh Injury
  • Nhoa SanguiOutThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

RC Lens

  1. 40 Robin Risser · G
  2. 25 Ismaelo Ganiou · D
  3. 32 Kyllian Antonio · D
  4. 2 Ruben Aguilar · M
  5. 5 Andrija Bulatović · M
  6. 8 Yassine Titraoui · M
  7. 14 Matthieu Udol · M
  8. 22 Michał Skóraś · M
  9. 27 Michaël Cuisance · M
  10. 10 Florian Thauvin · F
  11. 19 Abdallah Sima · F

Paris FC

  1. 1 Kevin Trapp · G
  2. 14 Hamari Traoré · D
  3. 17 Adama Camara · D
  4. 31 Samir Chergui · D
  5. 42 Diego Coppola · D
  6. 7 Pablo Pagis · M
  7. 10 Ilan Kebbal · M
  8. 15 Luca Koleosho · M
  9. 20 Maxime López · M
  10. 33 Pierre Lees Melou · M
  11. 9 Lassine Sinayoko · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

RC Lens

WWLDL
  • 31TroyesAway · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 1.43–1.24

  • 21Olympique LyonnaisHome · 9 Oct 2026

    xG 1.34–1.04

  • 12AS MonacoAway · 18 Sept 2026

    xG 1.19–1.75

  • 22Le MansAway · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 1.62–2.59

  • 01LorientHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.24–1.53

Paris FC

DLWDW
  • 00Stade RennaisHome · 18 Oct 2026
  • 01LorientAway · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 0.97–0.55

  • 21RC StrasbourgHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.02–0.23

  • 00Olympique LyonnaisHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 0.30–0.50

  • 32Olympique de MarseilleAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 3.29–1.42

How to read the RC Lens vs Paris FC probabilities

RC Lens vs Paris FC (Ligue 1, 24 Oct 2026): Clear lean. RC Lens win 56%. Expected goals are 1.82–1.01. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

RC Lens is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.82–1.01). RC Lens win is 56%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · RC Lens win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about RC Lens vs Paris FC

Who is favourite for RC Lens vs Paris FC?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is RC Lens win at 56%. Home 56%, draw 24%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for RC Lens vs Paris FC?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will RC Lens vs Paris FC go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in RC Lens vs Paris FC?
BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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