Skip to main content
E90

Ligue 1 · Round 8 · 2026/27

AS Monaco vs Lille prediction

Balanced

AS Monaco win 37%

· Stade Louis II

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

AS MonacovsLille
Balanced

AS Monaco win37%

AS Monaco win
37%
Draw
26%
Lille win
37%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 12%

Expected goals
1.47–1.46

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
56%
BTTS
60%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over80%
Under20%
2.5 goals
Over56%
Under44%
3.5 goals
Over34%
Under66%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: AS Monaco win 37%, from a -4 Elo gap (1625 vs 1628).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.47-1.46.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Eric Dier listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1625

-4

1628

Ligue 1 table
Out

AS Monaco2 out

  • Eric Dier
  • Stanis Idumbo Muzambo

Lille3 out

  • Ayase Ueda
  • Hamza Igamane
  • Tiago Santos
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

AS Monaco

DDWDW

Avg xG 1.05-1.46

Lille

DWLWW

Avg xG 1.57-1.48

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction12.2%
  2. 2218.4%
  3. 3128.4%
  4. 4107.1%
  5. 5017.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for AS Monaco versus Lille
AS Monaco goals012345
06%7%6%3%
17%12%8%4%
26%8%6%3%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

AS Monaco win

AS Monaco win: model 37%, fair 2.70, listed 2.13 (46%)

Fair

2.70

37% model

Listed

2.13

46% book

Draw

Draw: model 26%, fair 3.83, listed 3.60 (27%)

Fair

3.83

26% model

Listed

3.60

27% book

Lille win

Disagrees

Lille win: model 37%, fair 2.72, listed 3.63 (27%)

Fair

2.72

37% model

Listed

3.63

27% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Lille win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.79, listed 1.73 (55%)

Fair
1.79
Listed
1.73

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.27, listed 2.11 (45%)

Fair
2.27
Listed
2.11

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 60%, fair 1.67, listed 1.62 (58%)

Fair
1.67
Listed
1.62

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 40%, fair 2.49, listed 2.20 (42%)

Fair
2.49
Listed
2.20

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AS Monaco2 out

  • Eric DierOutThigh Injury
  • Stanis Idumbo MuzamboOutBack Injury

Lille3 out · 1 doubtful

  • Ayase UedaOutHeel Injury
  • Hamza IgamaneOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Tiago SantosOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Osame SahraouiDoubtfulFoot Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

AS Monaco

  1. 1 Lukáš Hrádecký · G
  2. 2 Vanderson · D
  3. 15 Eric Dier · D
  4. 20 Nazinho · D
  5. 72 Sadibou Sané · D
  6. 6 Denis Zakaria · M
  7. 8 Lamine Camara · M
  8. 10 Aleksandr Golovin · M
  9. 17 Stanis Idumbo Muzambo · M
  10. 28 Mamadou Coulibaly · M
  11. 29 Paris Brunner · F

Lille

  1. 1 Berke Özer · G
  2. 3 Nathan Ngoy · D
  3. 4 Alexsandro Ribeiro · D
  4. 15 Romain Perraud · D
  5. 22 Tiago Santos · D
  6. 6 Nabil Bentaleb · M
  7. 8 Ethan Mbappé · M
  8. 10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · M
  9. 17 Ngal'ayel Mukau · M
  10. 21 Benjamin André · M
  11. 9 Olivier Giroud · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AS Monaco

DDWDW
  • 00LorientAway · 18 Oct 2026
  • 22ToulouseHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 1.17–1.43

  • 21RC LensHome · 18 Sept 2026

    xG 1.75–1.19

  • 11RC StrasbourgAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 0.78–0.90

  • 21Paris Saint-GermainAway · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 0.51–2.32

Lille

DWLWW
  • 11Stade BrestoisHome · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 2.17–0.78

  • 10Le HavreHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 1.26–1.28

  • 12NiceAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.58–1.50

  • 20TroyesHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 1.65–0.38

  • 10ToulouseAway · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 1.21–3.46

How to read the AS Monaco vs Lille probabilities

AS Monaco vs Lille (Ligue 1, 25 Oct 2026): Balanced. AS Monaco win 37%. Expected goals are 1.47–1.46. Prediction 1–1 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

AS Monaco and Lille are close on expected goals (1.47–1.46), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 60%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · AS Monaco win
Kick-off
Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about AS Monaco vs Lille

Who is favourite for AS Monaco vs Lille?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is AS Monaco win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 26%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for AS Monaco vs Lille?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will AS Monaco vs Lille go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in AS Monaco vs Lille?
BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All Ligue 1 predictions