Serie A model performance
Serie A frozen walk-forward: ECE 0.0242, log loss 0.9830 on 1140 matches. Live 2026/27 sample: 28 scored matches, favourite-correct 68%, prediction hits 2. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.
Italy. Model sa-v1.1.0-elo. Ledger updated 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.
Serie A reliability
When the model assigned the favourite 70%, those matches should be won about 70% of the time. Closer to the diagonal is better.
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
ECE 0.0242. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 75 matches.
- ECE
- 0.0242
- Log loss
- 0.9830
- RPS
- 0.1938
- Walk-forward
- 1140
- 1X2 accuracy
- 53%
- Goal MAE
- 0.85
Bin frequencies
| Bin | Predicted | Happened | n | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37% | 40% | 237 | +3% |
| 40–50% | 45% | 48% | 365 | +3% |
| 50–60% | 55% | 57% | 266 | +2% |
| 60–70% | 64% | 65% | 184 | +0% |
| 70–80% | 74% | 76% | 75 | +2% |
| 80–90% | 83% | 69% | 13 | −14% |
Round ledgers: Round 7 · Round 8 · Round 9
Serie A live sample
Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.
- Matches in view
- 28
- Favourite-correct
- 68%
- Prediction hits
- 2
| Match | Round | Result | Prediction | 1X2 favourite | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa vs Juventus | 9 | 2–0 | 1–2Miss | Juventus win · 59%Miss | OverMiss | NoHit |
| Monza vs SSC Napoli | 9 | 1–4 | 1–2Miss | SSC Napoli win · 60%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Parma vs Udinese | 9 | 0–0 | 2–1Miss | Parma win · 41%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| AC Milan vs Bologna | 9 | 2–4 | 2–1Miss | AC Milan win · 60%Miss | OverHit | YesHit |
| Venezia vs Inter | 9 | 0–2 | 0–3Miss | Inter win · 82%Hit | OverMiss | NoHit |
| AS Roma vs Cagliari | 9 | 4–2 | 2–0Miss | AS Roma win · 68%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Torino vs Como | 9 | 1–3 | 1–2Miss | Como win · 51%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Sassuolo vs Lazio | 9 | 2–6 | 1–2Miss | Lazio win · 40%Hit | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Udinese vs AC Milan | 8 | 0–2 | 1–2Miss | AC Milan win · 54%Hit | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Lecce vs Juventus | 8 | 0–2 | 1–2Miss | Juventus win · 68%Hit | OverMiss | YesMiss |
| Atalanta vs Frosinone | 8 | 4–4 | 2–1Miss | Atalanta win · 49%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Genoa vs Venezia | 8 | 1–0 | 2–1Miss | Genoa win · 48%Hit | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Inter vs Fiorentina | 8 | 2–1 | 3–1Miss | Inter win · 79%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Lazio vs Parma | 8 | 2–1 | 2–1Hit | Lazio win · 61%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| SSC Napoli vs AS Roma | 8 | 3–3 | 1–2Miss | AS Roma win · 39%Miss | OverHit | YesHit |
| Cagliari vs Bologna | 8 | 0–2 | 1–1Miss | Bologna win · 38%Hit | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Como vs Sassuolo | 8 | 2–0 | 2–1Miss | Como win · 67%Hit | OverMiss | YesMiss |
| Torino vs Monza | 8 | 3–2 | 2–1Miss | Torino win · 47%Hit | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Parma vs Torino | 7 | 0–3 | 1–1Miss | Torino win · 40%Hit | UnderMiss | NoHit |
| Monza vs Cagliari | 7 | 4–0 | 1–1Miss | Monza win · 38%Hit | OverHit | YesMiss |
| Juventus vs Lazio | 7 | 0–3 | 2–1Miss | Juventus win · 53%Miss | UnderMiss | YesMiss |
| AC Milan vs Atalanta | 7 | 3–2 | 2–1Miss | AC Milan win · 57%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Fiorentina vs Como | 7 | 1–3 | 1–2Miss | Como win · 52%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Udinese vs Lecce | 7 | 0–3 | 2–1Miss | Udinese win · 56%Miss | UnderMiss | NoHit |
| AS Roma vs Genoa | 7 | 2–0 | 2–0Hit | AS Roma win · 76%Hit | OverMiss | NoHit |
| Bologna vs Inter | 7 | 1–3 | 1–2Miss | Inter win · 61%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Venezia vs SSC Napoli | 7 | 1–0 | 1–2Miss | SSC Napoli win · 60%Miss | OverMiss | YesMiss |
| Frosinone vs Sassuolo | 7 | 4–2 | 1–1Miss | Sassuolo win · 37%Miss | OverHit | YesHit |
Serie A performance questions
- What does the Serie A calibration diagram show?
- Each point is a favourite-probability bin from 1140 walk-forward matches. Horizontal is what the model assigned; vertical is how often that favourite won. Closer to the diagonal is better. ECE 0.0242 is the average gap.
- Can I check Serie A results by round?
- Yes. Open a round page for the predicted vs actual table. Scored rounds: 7, 8, 9.
- How should I read live Serie A favourite-correct?
- Treat it as a noisy extra. Frozen walk-forward log loss is 0.9830 and favourite 1X2 accuracy is 53%. A short live slice can look much worse or better.
sa-v1.1.0-elo
Serie A
Live season 2026/27 · round 9
Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.
- Matches · with price
- 28 · 28
- Log loss
- 0.8767·0.8983
- RPS
- 0.1979·0.2014
- Brier
- 0.5031·0.5155
- Goal MAE
- 1.21
- 1X2 accuracy
- 68%
Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0217
Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0035
Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0124
Goals markets
Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.
| Market | Matches | Log loss | Brier | Hit rate | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 28 · 28 | 0.7285·0.6800Δ +0.0484 | 0.2669·0.2430 | 57% | Model · Closing line |
| Under 2.5 | 28 · 28 | 0.7285·0.6800Δ +0.0484 | 0.2669·0.2430 | 57% | Model · Closing line |
| BTTS | 28 · 28 | 0.6813·0.6558Δ +0.0255 | 0.2441·0.2317 | 57% | Model · Closing line |
Frozen walk-forward goals markets
Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.
| Market | Matches | Log loss | Brier | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1140 | 0.6908 | 0.2488 | 54% |
| Under 2.5 | 1140 | 0.6908 | 0.2488 | 54% |
| BTTS | 1140 | 0.6938 | 0.2503 | 53% |
The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.