Who is favourite for AS Roma vs Genoa?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is AS Roma win at 76%. Home 76%, draw 16%, away 8%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for AS Roma vs Genoa?

2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will AS Roma vs Genoa go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 64% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in AS Roma vs Genoa?

BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 7 · 2026/27

AS Roma vs Genoa prediction

Strong favourite

AS Roma win 76%

Sat 17 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon · Stadio Olimpico

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 3/4 checks hit

AS Roma

2–0

AS Roma won

Genoa

1X2

AS Roma win

76%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 2–0 · score hit

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted AS Roma win · 76%

Actual AS Roma won

Prediction

Hit

Predicted 2–0

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

AS RomavsGenoa

Strong favourite

AS Roma win76%

Open game

AS Roma win: 76%
Draw: 16%
Genoa win: 8%

Prediction: 2–0
Expected goals: 2.57–0.73
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 48%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals2 scored · Hit: Over85%; Under15%
2.5 goals2 scored · Miss: Over64%; Under36%
3.5 goals2 scored · Hit: Over42%; Under58%

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: AS Roma win 76%, from a +211 Elo gap (1673 vs 1462).
2Expected goals 2.57-0.73.
3Prediction 2–0 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 64%.
5Donyell Malen suspended and 7 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1673
+211
1462
Serie A table
Out: AS Roma4 out
Donyell MalenSuspended
Bryan Cristante
Manu Koné
+1 more
Genoa4 out
Djibril Sow
Elias Havel
Franz-Ethan Meichtry
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
13 changes from the expected XI
3-4-2-1/3-4-2-1
Last 5: AS Roma
DDWWW
Avg xG 2.17-1.31
Genoa
WLDLL
Avg xG 1.05-1.34

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

120PredictionResult12.2%
23010.4%
3109.1%
4218.9%
5317.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for AS Roma versus Genoa
AS Roma goals	0	1	2
0	4%	2%
1	9%	7%	3%
2	12%	9%	3%
3	10%	8%	3%
4	7%	5%
5	3%	3%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

AS Roma win

Disagrees

Fair

1.31

76% model

Listed

1.44

68% book

Closing 1.64

Draw

Fair

6.45

16% model

Listed

4.81

20% book

Closing 3.98

Genoa win

Fair

12.47

8% model

Listed

8.50

12% book

Closing 6.27

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 2 days before kick-off

Closing 1X2 · H 1.64 · D 3.98 · A 6.27 · captured 18 Oct 2026, 15:36 UTC

The model disagrees with the listed AS Roma win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.56
Listed: 1.78

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.78
Listed: 2.20

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 1.85

BTTS no

Fair: 1.94
Listed: 1.85

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AS Roma4 out

Donyell MalenSuspendedred card suspension
Bryan CristanteOutKnee Injury
Manu KonéOutThigh Injury
Mile SvilarOutBroken Finger

Genoa4 out

Djibril SowOutThigh Injury
Elias HavelOutAnkle Injury
Franz-Ethan MeichtryOutMuscle Injury
Lorenzo ColomboOutAnkle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

AS Roma

Genoa

Confirmed XIConfirmed13 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

AS Roma

3-4-2-1

Genoa

3-4-2-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AS Roma

DDWWW

00ComoAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.08–1.35
22InterHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.66–2.86
20TorinoAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.85–0.86
21AtalantaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.97–0.70
40LecceAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 3.27–0.80

Genoa

WLDLL

21FiorentinaHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.46–0.82
12ParmaAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.70–0.53
11FrosinoneHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–1.93
14ComoHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.78–1.78
01LazioAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.42–1.62

How to read the AS Roma vs Genoa probabilities

AS Roma vs Genoa (Serie A, 17 Oct 2026): Strong favourite. AS Roma win 76%. Expected goals are 2.57–0.73. Prediction 2–0 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–0.

AS Roma is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.57–0.73). AS Roma win is 76%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–0 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 64%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 48%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Strong favourite · AS Roma win
Kick-off: Sat 17 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about AS Roma vs Genoa

Who is favourite for AS Roma vs Genoa?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is AS Roma win at 76%. Home 76%, draw 16%, away 8%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for AS Roma vs Genoa?: 2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will AS Roma vs Genoa go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 64% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in AS Roma vs Genoa?: BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.