Skip to main content
E90

Serie A round 9 results

Serie A round 9 has 8 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 63%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Genoa vs Juventus; Parma vs Udinese; AC Milan vs Bologna. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Italy. Model sa-v1.1.0-elo. Round 9. Ledger updated 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Serie A reliability

Round 9 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 40% (237 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 48% (365 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 57% (266 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 65% (184 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 76% (75 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 69% (13 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Serie A: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0242 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0242. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 75 matches.

ECE
0.0242
Log loss
0.9830
RPS
0.1938
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
53%
Goal MAE
0.85
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%40%237+3%
40–50%45%48%365+3%
50–60%55%57%266+2%
60–70%64%65%184+0%
70–80%74%76%75+2%
80–90%83%69%13−14%
Jump to roundAll789

Serie A round 9 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
8
Favourite-correct
63%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Genoa vs Juventus92–01–2MissJuventus win · 59%MissOverMissNoHit
Monza vs SSC Napoli91–41–2MissSSC Napoli win · 60%HitOverHitYesHit
Parma vs Udinese90–02–1MissParma win · 41%MissUnderHitYesMiss
AC Milan vs Bologna92–42–1MissAC Milan win · 60%MissOverHitYesHit
Venezia vs Inter90–20–3MissInter win · 82%HitOverMissNoHit
AS Roma vs Cagliari94–22–0MissAS Roma win · 68%HitOverHitNoMiss
Torino vs Como91–31–2MissComo win · 51%HitOverHitYesHit
Sassuolo vs Lazio92–61–2MissLazio win · 40%HitUnderMissYesHit

Previous: round 8All Serie A results

Serie A predictions

Serie A round 9 questions

How did Expected90 do in Serie A round 9?
8 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 63% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Serie A round 9 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Serie A rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 7, round 8, round 9.

sa-v1.1.0-elo

Serie A

Round 9 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
8 · 8
Log loss
0.9292·0.9603

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0311

RPS
0.2144·0.2213

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0069

Brier
0.5378·0.5540

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0162

Goal MAE
1.39
1X2 accuracy
63%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.58 · 80.7190·0.6910Δ +0.02800.2608·0.246463%Model · Closing line
Under 2.58 · 80.7190·0.6910Δ +0.02800.2608·0.246463%Model · Closing line
BTTS8 · 80.6707·0.6715Δ -0.00080.2388·0.239275%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.