Who is favourite for Venezia vs Inter?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Inter win at 82%. Home 6%, draw 12%, away 82%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Venezia vs Inter?

0–3 is the published prediction at 11%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Venezia vs Inter go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 71% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Venezia vs Inter?

BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 9 · 2026/27

Venezia vs Inter prediction

Strong favourite

Inter win 82%

Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon · Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Published 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

VeneziavsInter

Strong favourite

Inter win82%

Open game

Venezia win: 6%
Draw: 12%
Inter win: 82%

Prediction: 0–3
Expected goals: 0.71–2.94
Over 2.5: 71%
BTTS: 48%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over88%; Under12%
2.5 goals: Over71%; Under29%
3.5 goals: Over50%; Under50%

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Inter win 82%, from a -404 Elo gap (1374 vs 1778).
2Expected goals 0.71-2.94.
3Prediction 0–3 (11%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 11%.
4Over 2.5 at 71%.
5Bartol Franjić listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1374
-404
1778
Serie A table
Out: Venezia2 out
Bartol Franjić
Thierry Correia
Inter4 out
Benjamin Pavard
Curtis Jones
John Stones
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Venezia
WLLLL
Avg xG 1.61-2.28
Inter
WWDWW
Avg xG 3.07-1.29

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

102Modal11.2%
203Prediction11.0%
3048.1%
4128.0%
5137.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 0–3, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Venezia versus Inter
Venezia goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3%	8%	11%	11%	8%	5%
1		6%	8%	8%	6%	3%
2			3%	3%	2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 20:51 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Venezia win

Fair

16.64

6% model

Listed

8.50

12% book

Draw

Fair

8.45

12% model

Listed

5.89

17% book

Inter win

Disagrees

Fair

1.22

82% model

Listed

1.38

72% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Inter win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.42
Listed: 1.33

Under 2.5

Fair: 3.41
Listed: 3.40

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 1.52

BTTS no

Fair: 1.94
Listed: 2.37

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Venezia2 out

Bartol FranjićOutShoulder Injury
Thierry CorreiaOutMuscle Injury

Inter4 out

Benjamin PavardOutThigh Injury
Curtis JonesOutMuscle Injury
John StonesOutThigh Injury
Lautaro MartínezOutThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Venezia

Inter

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Venezia

WLLLL

10SSC NapoliHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.98–2.36
13AtalantaAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.48–2.19
02LazioHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.92–1.64
24FiorentinaHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 0.49–3.31
23FrosinoneAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 2.17–1.90

Inter

WWDWW

31BolognaAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 3.16–1.00
30ParmaHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.42–0.46
22AS RomaAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.86–1.66
53UdineseHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 3.05–0.92
32SSC NapoliHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 3.86–2.43

How to read the Venezia vs Inter probabilities

Venezia vs Inter (Serie A, 28 Oct 2026): Strong favourite. Inter win 82%. Expected goals are 0.71–2.94. Prediction 0–3 (11%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Inter is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.71–2.94). Inter win is 82%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 0–3 at 11%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–2 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 71%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 48%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Strong favourite · Inter win
Kick-off: Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Venezia vs Inter

Who is favourite for Venezia vs Inter?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Inter win at 82%. Home 6%, draw 12%, away 82%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Venezia vs Inter?: 0–3 is the published prediction at 11%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Venezia vs Inter go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 71% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Venezia vs Inter?: BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.