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E90

Serie A round 8 results

Serie A round 8 has 5 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 80%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: SSC Napoli vs AS Roma. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Italy. Model sa-v1.1.0-elo. Round 8. Ledger updated 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Serie A reliability

Round 8 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 40% (237 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 48% (365 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 57% (266 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 65% (184 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 76% (75 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 69% (13 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Serie A: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0242 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0242. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 75 matches.

ECE
0.0242
Log loss
0.9830
RPS
0.1938
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
53%
Goal MAE
0.85
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%40%237+3%
40–50%45%48%365+3%
50–60%55%57%266+2%
60–70%64%65%184+0%
70–80%74%76%75+2%
80–90%83%69%13−14%
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Serie A round 8 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
5
Favourite-correct
80%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Lazio vs Parma82–12–1HitLazio win · 61%HitOverHitNoMiss
SSC Napoli vs AS Roma83–31–2MissAS Roma win · 39%MissOverHitYesHit
Cagliari vs Bologna80–21–1MissBologna win · 38%HitUnderHitYesMiss
Como vs Sassuolo82–02–1MissComo win · 67%HitOverMissYesMiss
Torino vs Monza83–22–1MissTorino win · 47%HitUnderMissNoMiss

Previous: round 7All Serie A results

Serie A predictions

Serie A round 8 questions

How did Expected90 do in Serie A round 8?
5 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 80% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Serie A round 8 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Serie A rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 7, round 8.

sa-v1.1.0-elo

Serie A

Round 8 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
5 · 5
Log loss
0.7917·0.7699

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0218

RPS
0.1429·0.1366

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0063

Brier
0.4425·0.4292

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0133

Goal MAE
0.93
1X2 accuracy
80%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.55 · 50.7559·0.7373Δ +0.01850.2802·0.270960%Model · Closing line
Under 2.55 · 50.7559·0.7373Δ +0.01850.2802·0.270960%Model · Closing line
BTTS5 · 50.7126·0.7227Δ -0.01010.2597·0.264520%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.